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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over the western CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level jet associated with this feature will make only slow eastward progress over the northern/central Plains through the period. Still, a strong low-level mass response will occur through the day across much of the Plains, as rich low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints is transported northward. At the surface, a low should deepen over the central High Plains by late Sunday afternoon, and then develop northeastward across the northern Plains through late Sunday night. A warm front is also forecast to lift northward in tandem with the surface low across the northern Plains. Much of the warm sector across the northern/central Plains may remain capped through the diurnal heating cycle based on various NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Even so, lift associated with warm air advection, owing to a rapidly strengthening low-level jet, should encourage convective initiation across eastern SD/NE around late Sunday afternoon into the evening. The environment across this region along and south of the northward-lifting warm front will be favorable for supercells, with strong instability and shear present. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, may occur given the forecast thermodynamic and kinematic fields. The potential for surface-based convection becomes less clear with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest Sunday night, but at least some severe threat should continue. At this point, confidence remains too low in overall storm coverage across eastern SD/NE into southwestern MN and northwestern IA to include higher severe probabilities. Farther west, mainly elevated storms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains as the mid/upper-level jet overspreads this region. Isolated large hail may occur with this convection as moderate MUCAPE should be present along with strong speed shear at mid/upper levels. Any storms that can persist across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and remain at least semi-discrete to the north of the warm front may also pose an isolated hail threat Sunday night. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level convergence along a surface trough should be sufficient in concert with ample diurnal heating to initiate isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. The stronger flow aloft associated with an upper trough/low will likely remain displaced to the north of this region. But, some veering and strengthening of the flow with height should occur, which will offer the potential for modest storm organization given 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. Steep low-level lapse rates owing to a well mixed boundary layer may support strong to locally severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail may also occur. The overall severe threat should quickly wane Sunday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Gleason.. 09/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains to parts of New York into the Ohio Valley. A somewhat greater chance for severe weather may exist Saturday afternoon across portions of central/eastern Kansas into far western Missouri. ...Central/Southern Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the southern Rockies progressing east-northeast in line with 00z model guidance. While large-scale heights are actually forecast to rise ahead of this short wave, 500mb temperatures should cool a few degrees as the trough ejects into eastern KS and deamplifies by 29/00z. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf States through the period and this will ensure the aforementioned short wave lifts decidedly poleward over the next 36hrs. Significant convection is currently ongoing at 0530z along a frontal zone from eastern KS into northern IN. This boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through the period. Latest guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the TX South Plains into extreme south-central KS by afternoon. As a result, surface readings should approach convective temperatures by 21z which times favorably with the approaching trough. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the wind shift by late afternoon, especially from northern OK into western MO. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this diurnally enhanced convection. ...Upper OH Valley/NY... Surface front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great Lakes region into western NY - northwest PA - central OH by 18z. Modest surface-6km shear will be present across this region along southern fringe of ON/QC short wave trough. While forecast buoyancy is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, isolated surface-based convection should develop near the front by 20z, then propagate southeast as the front settles across the OH Valley by early evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Cook.. 09/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains to parts of New York into the Ohio Valley. A somewhat greater chance for severe weather may exist Saturday afternoon across portions of central/eastern Kansas into far western Missouri. ...Central/Southern Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the southern Rockies progressing east-northeast in line with 00z model guidance. While large-scale heights are actually forecast to rise ahead of this short wave, 500mb temperatures should cool a few degrees as the trough ejects into eastern KS and deamplifies by 29/00z. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf States through the period and this will ensure the aforementioned short wave lifts decidedly poleward over the next 36hrs. Significant convection is currently ongoing at 0530z along a frontal zone from eastern KS into northern IN. This boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through the period. Latest guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the TX South Plains into extreme south-central KS by afternoon. As a result, surface readings should approach convective temperatures by 21z which times favorably with the approaching trough. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the wind shift by late afternoon, especially from northern OK into western MO. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this diurnally enhanced convection. ...Upper OH Valley/NY... Surface front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great Lakes region into western NY - northwest PA - central OH by 18z. Modest surface-6km shear will be present across this region along southern fringe of ON/QC short wave trough. While forecast buoyancy is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, isolated surface-based convection should develop near the front by 20z, then propagate southeast as the front settles across the OH Valley by early evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Cook.. 09/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains to parts of New York into the Ohio Valley. A somewhat greater chance for severe weather may exist Saturday afternoon across portions of central/eastern Kansas into far western Missouri. ...Central/Southern Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the southern Rockies progressing east-northeast in line with 00z model guidance. While large-scale heights are actually forecast to rise ahead of this short wave, 500mb temperatures should cool a few degrees as the trough ejects into eastern KS and deamplifies by 29/00z. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf States through the period and this will ensure the aforementioned short wave lifts decidedly poleward over the next 36hrs. Significant convection is currently ongoing at 0530z along a frontal zone from eastern KS into northern IN. This boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through the period. Latest guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the TX South Plains into extreme south-central KS by afternoon. As a result, surface readings should approach convective temperatures by 21z which times favorably with the approaching trough. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the wind shift by late afternoon, especially from northern OK into western MO. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this diurnally enhanced convection. ...Upper OH Valley/NY... Surface front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great Lakes region into western NY - northwest PA - central OH by 18z. Modest surface-6km shear will be present across this region along southern fringe of ON/QC short wave trough. While forecast buoyancy is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, isolated surface-based convection should develop near the front by 20z, then propagate southeast as the front settles across the OH Valley by early evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Cook.. 09/28/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains to parts of New York into the Ohio Valley. A somewhat greater chance for severe weather may exist Saturday afternoon across portions of central/eastern Kansas into far western Missouri. ...Central/Southern Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the southern Rockies progressing east-northeast in line with 00z model guidance. While large-scale heights are actually forecast to rise ahead of this short wave, 500mb temperatures should cool a few degrees as the trough ejects into eastern KS and deamplifies by 29/00z. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf States through the period and this will ensure the aforementioned short wave lifts decidedly poleward over the next 36hrs. Significant convection is currently ongoing at 0530z along a frontal zone from eastern KS into northern IN. This boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through the period. Latest guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the TX South Plains into extreme south-central KS by afternoon. As a result, surface readings should approach convective temperatures by 21z which times favorably with the approaching trough. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the wind shift by late afternoon, especially from northern OK into western MO. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this diurnally enhanced convection. ...Upper OH Valley/NY... Surface front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great Lakes region into western NY - northwest PA - central OH by 18z. Modest surface-6km shear will be present across this region along southern fringe of ON/QC short wave trough. While forecast buoyancy is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, isolated surface-based convection should develop near the front by 20z, then propagate southeast as the front settles across the OH Valley by early evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Cook.. 09/28/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America
westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. This system is
gradually becoming better organized, however, it does not appear to
have a well-defined circulation at this time. Development is
anticipated and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely
form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along that portion of the
coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash
flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next few days. For information on potential marine
hazards, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected form over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CNU TO 20 NNW EMP TO 20 N MHK. ..BROYLES..09/28/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-031-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-107-111-121-139-177- 197-209-280640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON COFFEY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081- 089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211- 280640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB Read more

WW 666 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 272315Z - 280700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and eastern Kansas Western and northern Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 615 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will continue to develop in southwest/northeast-oriented corridors near a cold front from south-central/northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to the primary severe hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles east southeast of Kirksville MO to 20 miles southwest of Hutchinson KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664...WW 665... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW EMP TO 45 NNE ICT TO 30 SW MHK TO 15 ESE MHK TO 10 WNW STJ. ..GOSS..09/28/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-015-017-031-043-045-059-073-085-087-091-103-107-111- 115-121-127-139-177-197-209-280540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081- 089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211- 280540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS Read more

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW EMP TO 40 WSW EMP TO 30 SE SLN TO 15 NNE SLN. ..COOK..09/28/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-015-017-031-043-045-059-073-085-087-091-103-107-111- 115-121-127-139-177-197-207-209-280440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081- 089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211- 280440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 02:38:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 03:24:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280236 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening. A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity models. The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280236 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 62(82) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 135 WTNT33 KNHC 280235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.8, -44.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

MD 2031 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 665... FOR FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Missouri...far southeast Iowa...portions of central and northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 665... Valid 280218Z - 280415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 665 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 665. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows some upscale growth/clustering of storms across the northern Illinois vicinity, near the steadily advancing cold front. Some hint that storms are becoming undercut by outflow is evident, which -- along with a gradually stabilizing boundary layer -- suggests that surface-based risk may be slowly diminishing. Still, along with hail potential, locally damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible over the next couple of hours -- i.e. for the remainder of the WW valid time. ..Goss.. 09/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 41388855 40978816 40398813 39958940 39569222 39939244 40359212 40889200 41338979 41388855 Read more

MD 2030 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666... FOR CENTRAL KANSAS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0904 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Areas affected...Central Kansas eastward into northern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666... Valid 280204Z - 280330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 666. DISCUSSION...Storms have organized into a series of supercells and broken linear segments along and near the surface cold front, which bisects WW 666 from near ICT to MKC to IRK. Most of these supercells have been barely elevated atop the leading edge of the front, though occasional mesocyclogenesis near the boundary has also been noted. Additionally, a few left splits have occurred across central Kansas near SLN and near LWD. The combination of favorable storm mode, very steep (8-8.5C/km) lapse rates, and 40-45 knots of deep shear will favor large to occasionally significant hail - particularly with supercellular structures. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are also possible - particularly near the Kansas Turnpike. This risk should continue over at least the next 2-3 hours. ..Cook.. 09/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38539841 39119699 40069480 40629344 40649251 40269221 39689233 39159267 38539339 38019506 37449703 37259802 37289838 37629859 38129848 38539841 Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S OTM TO 20 NE BRL TO 30 ESE RFD. ..GOSS..09/28/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-039-053-057-067-071-095-099-105-107-109-113-123- 125-129-143-169-175-179-187-203-280240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS DE WITT FORD FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MARSHALL MASON MENARD PEORIA SCHUYLER STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WOODFORD IAC057-087-111-177-280240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN Read more