5 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 12:01:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:31:41 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 0
000
WTNT35 KNHC 231151
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24A
NWS Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the watch area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
the center of Jerry was located near 27.8, -67.7
with movement NNW at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 991 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
487
WTNT32 KNHC 231151
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next
36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through
tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165
km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:
Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN...
As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
the center of Karen was located near 14.2, -64.4
with movement NW at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 11:19:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 11:19:10 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231105
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located a
few hundred miles south-southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde
Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231105
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west
longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located a a little more than 100 miles west of
the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of
the basin.
A small low pressure system located several hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift
northward or northwestward during the next few days, and
significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:13:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:31:41 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230911 CCA
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Corrected Key Messages
Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.
The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.
The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.
2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm warning is
in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230903
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 22.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 22.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue through this afternoon. A
motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to
the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
the center of Thirteen was located near 10.8, -22.2
with movement W at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019
GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass
show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep
convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface
center. These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB
intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical
storm status of 35 kt for this advisory.
Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it
continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind
environment. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear
and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is
forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with
dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8
kt, just south of due west. Kiko is expected to turn westward to
west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a
high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the
upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone. At the 72
hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow
remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest
within the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is
close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various
multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:57:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:57:39 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
000
FONT13 KNHC 230856
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 60Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230856
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.
The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.
The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.
2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 230854
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.
The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.
Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT43 KNHC 230852
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level
outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and
mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite
yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the
low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at
30 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is 270/13 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally
westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so,
resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion
toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into
a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly
clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant
changes were required.
The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
000
FONT12 KNHC 230851
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 5 9(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
5 years 9 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.
RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:
Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster