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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible across the Pacific Northwest region later today into tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough just west of Vancouver Island this morning will dig south-southeastward over OR to northeastern CA/northern NV by Tuesday morning. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates with the approach of the midlevel cold pool (colder than -30 C at 500 mb) will support weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection in the zone of ascent immediately preceding the midlevel trough. Otherwise, the CONUS will be dominated by cool and/or dry air in the low levels, which will preclude thunderstorms. ..Thompson.. 02/14/2022 Read more

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on William Goodrich Jones State Forest land during 2022. Burn units identified as management areas F2, F4, F5, F6 and 14 will be burned for a total of 80 acres. Management Area F6/F5 – 64 acresProposed burning dates: 11/10/2021 – 4/10/2022 Management Area 14/F4/F2 – 16 acresProposed burning dates: 11/10/2021 – 4/10/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on Sam Houston State University – University Camp land during 2022. Four burn units identified as units 1, 2, 3 and 4 will be burned for a total of 118 acres. Unit 1 – 48 acresProposed burning dates: 1/24/2022 – 5/24/2022 Unit 2 – 30 acresProposed burning dates: 1/24/2022 – 5/24/2022 Unit 3 – 21 acresProposed burning dates: 1/24/2022 – 5/24/2022 Unit 4 – 19 acresProposed burning dates: 1/24/2022 – 5/24/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, reduce competition for managed crop trees, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will...

Grass fires sparked easily in the Omaha area, given the dry conditions. On Feb. 10, an effort to thaw the ground for a burial in an Omaha cemetery started a grass fire, charring some artificial flowers, and requiring firefighters to extinguish the blaze. Another grass fire occurred later in the day near an apartment building in midtown. An Omaha fire battalion chief urged the public to be careful and practice good fire safety. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), Feb 11, 2022

The town of Benton was under a burn ban due to the dry conditions and more grass fires than usual. KPXJ-TV & KTBS-TV (Shreveport, La.), Feb 11, 2022

Irrigation districts in Central Oregon are protecting their water supplies against the drier years by converting canals to pipes. Early 2022 is looking like one of those dry years. Decreasing snowpack in the Cascades is starting to indicate that another year of drought may be on the horizon for Central Oregon. The snowpack was 130% of average in early January, but dry, warm weather has melted the snowpack. On Feb. 11, snowpack in the Upper Deschutes and Crooked River basin was 92% of normal while precipitation for the water year was 89% of normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. In addition, Wickiup Reservoir is expected to fill to its lowest level in history and is 44% full, although it would normally be about 84% full at this time of year. Water supplies may be lower in 2022 than in 2021. Bend Bulletin (Ore.), Feb 11, 2022

The board of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California instructed its staff to begin negotiating the purchase of up to 100,000 acre-feet of water from the Sacramento Valley. Metropolitan has purchased water from Northern California in eight of the past 16 years. The water deals can raise hackles in farm country, where water sales will result in fewer cultivated acres and hurt the local economy. In 2021, Metropolitan tried to buy up to 65,000 acre-feet of water from Northern California, but supplies were too short. Farmers would only sell 5,600 acre-feet, costing Metropolitan $5.3 million. Metropolitan hopes that there will be more water for sale this year since the State Water Project has already announced allocations of 15%. The Sacramento Bee (Calif.), Feb 10, 2022

Most area fire departments in eastern Nebraska have issued burn bans until further notice. Some of the affected counties may include Madison, Knox, Cedar, Antelope, Pierce, Wayne, Boone, Stanton, Cuming, Platte, Colfax and Dodge. Several area fire departments, including Norfolk, Stanton, Pierce and Madison, initiated burn bans until the region receives needed moisture. Several fires have occurred in northeast Nebraska in recent days. On Feb. 6, several dozen hay bales and a shed burned at a feedlot south of Norfolk. On Feb. 7, a grass fire burned northwest of Hoskins. Norfolk Daily News (Neb.), Feb 8, 2022

A wildfire sparked in Orange County near Emerald Bay in the early morning hours of Feb. 10. Gusty Santa Ana winds drove the flames, causing several hundred residents to evacuate as 145 acres burned. No homes were lost. This is the second winter wildfire in the Golden State after a blaze burned in January near Big Sur. Associated Press News (New York), Feb 10, 2022

All outdoor burning and open fire pits are prohibited in Webster Parish, effective Feb. 9, due to the lack of rain. In DeSoto Parish, all outdoor burning is prohibited until further notice, due to drought. KPXJ-TV & KTBS-TV (Shreveport, La.), Feb 9, 2022

Water rates are increasing in Cedar City due to ongoing drought and a planned suspension of some water rights. City council members voted in favor of the ordinance which implements tiered rates so higher water use costs more. The new rates begin on July 1 with subsequent rate increases occurring each July through 2025 for residential water users. The Spectrum.com (Cedar City, Utah), Feb 10, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 10 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 10 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a small portion of Deep South Texas, the risk for thunderstorms appears low across much of the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mean upper troughing will remain prominent over much of the central and eastern states as multiple shorter wavelength impulses move across these regions. At the surface, a low initially over the Great Lakes will develop northeastward into Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps south-southeastward across much of the Plains and MS Valley. Ahead of this front, modest low-level moisture should return northward across parts of Deep South TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico and south FL. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to gradually steepen across Deep South TX through the period, which combined with the increasing low-level moisture should foster the development of weak MUCAPE, particularly Friday night. Although large-scale ascent will likely remain nebulous on the southern periphery of the large-scale upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear possible Friday into Friday night across portions of Deep South TX as elevated instability gradually increases. ..Gleason.. 02/10/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Despite minimum afternoon RH remaining in the 25 to 35 percent range across parts of KS and NE, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly winds could support localized/brief elevated fire-weather conditions today. However, these conditions appear too marginal and localized to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the CONUS as a surface cyclone approaches the Great Lakes and a cold front moves southeast across the northern Plains. Relatively cooler temperatures and resultant higher RH in proximity to the cold front should limit wildfire spread potential across the central/northern Plains. Drier surface air is expected across the southern High Plains, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should also limit wildfire spread concerns here as well. Dry offshore flow is expected to continue across southern California, with Elevated to occasionally Critical meteorological surface conditions likely. Nonetheless, fuels are poorly receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale pattern with longwave troughing east of the Rockies, in conjunction with limited moisture and continental trajectories, will result in negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today and tonight. Some shallow convection is expected this afternoon and early evening across eastern New York into New England near an eastward-moving front. However, it is generally not expected to reach sufficient depth/favorable temperatures for lightning generation. ..Guyer.. 02/10/2022 Read more

 On February 8th at approximately 1 pm, two fires started east of FM 4, North of Palo Pinto, Texas. The two fires were both caused by debris burning escaping into tall grass. Both fires moved quickly through grass flats and spread rapidly. Multiple fire departments responded to these fires along with Texas A&M Forest Service and began suppression efforts. Several drops from Large air tankers and single engine air tankers provided beneficial support and enabled ground resources to make good progress on building containment

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 9 17:16:01 UTC 2022.