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Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 630 WTPZ44 KNHC 250251 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 Narda has weakened slightly due to persistent 20–25 kt northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, more recent satellite imagery shows an expanding burst of very cold convection, with cloud tops to –90 C redeveloping over the center and a curved band wrapping in from the southwest. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are lower, ranging between T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 57–68 kt range. In light of the improved convective presentation during the past few hours, the initial intensity is only lowered slightly, to 80 kt for this advisory. The initial motions is toward the west at about 270/9 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. The track guidance remains in good agreement on a general westward motion through about 48 h. Between 48 and 60 h, Narda should turn west-northwestward, followed by a northwestward motion from 60 to 72 h. Beyond 72 h, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is forecast as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to an upper-level low over California and a digging shortwave trough over the northeast Pacific. By days 4 and 5, Narda should continue north-northeastward. The NHC forecast is close to the previous forecast, aligning closely with multi-model consensus aids. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next day or so as the vertical shear persists. By Friday, the shear is expected to ease to more moderate levels while Narda remains over warm waters with a moist environment, which should allow for some re-strengthening. The northwestward track between 60 and 72 h may also keep the system over warmer waters a little longer, potentially delaying weakening. However, by 72–96 h, Narda is forecast to encounter cooler waters and a drier mid-level airmass, leading to a steady weakening trend. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical by day 5 or early next week. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast and remains near the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.9N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.4N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 21.8N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 577 WTPZ34 KNHC 250250 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 ...NARDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 113.2W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. A northwestward and then north-northeastward motion is forecast this weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some re-strengthening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or national meteorological office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...NARDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Sep 24 the center of Narda was located near 15.1, -113.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025 543 FOPZ14 KNHC 250250 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 85 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 115W 64 33 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 2 12(14) 48(62) 4(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 3(20) X(20) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 51(57) 18(75) 1(76) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 1(39) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250249 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.2W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.2W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 122.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 25 01:03:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 25 01:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across portions of central Alabama northeast into northern Georgia. ... Overview ... Overall thunderstorm intensity -- and correspondingly the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds -- continues to wane this evening across the US as low-level temperatures cool and low-level lapse rates weaken with the loss of diurnal heating. An exception to this will be across portions of central Alabama into northern Georgia where thunderstorm updrafts have been a bit more robust, and consequently slower to weaken, than elsewhere. Here, the potential for a few gusty wind reports may persist another couple of hours. ..Marsh.. 09/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across portions of central Alabama northeast into northern Georgia. ... Overview ... Overall thunderstorm intensity -- and correspondingly the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds -- continues to wane this evening across the US as low-level temperatures cool and low-level lapse rates weaken with the loss of diurnal heating. An exception to this will be across portions of central Alabama into northern Georgia where thunderstorm updrafts have been a bit more robust, and consequently slower to weaken, than elsewhere. Here, the potential for a few gusty wind reports may persist another couple of hours. ..Marsh.. 09/25/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located in the eastern Pacific several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 24 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 24 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... On Day 3/Friday, a midlevel trough and accompanying 40-kt midlevel westerly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains. This will promote dry/breezy post-frontal conditions from the Intermountain West into the northern Plains. However, unreceptive fuels (where the strongest winds and low RH are expected) should limit fire-weather concerns. A belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow trailing the midlevel trough will continue to favor locally dry/breezy conditions across the northern Plains on Day 4/Saturday, though marginal fuels should continue mitigating the fire-weather risk. Ahead of a slowly evolving midlevel trough/low over southern CA, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest into the Great Basin through the weekend. Ample deep-layer moisture, cool temperatures, and marginal fuel receptiveness should generally reduce the risk of new ignitions. ...Day 5/Sunday... Modestly dry/breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Northwest (especially southern OR) ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, though critical conditions are not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more