Aggregator

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 02 Aug 2025 05:20:08 GMT

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 2 12:02:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 2 12:02:02 UTC 2025.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 09:21:54 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil has likely reached its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows convection in the northwestern quadrant has mostly eroded, likely due to dry air entrainment and the system now moving over marginal sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. However, the cyclone still displays impressive banding features wrapping around its southern and eastern sides. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain steady at 4.0/65 kt, consistent with objective satellite estimates ranging from 50 to 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The initial motion is estimated at 300/17 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue into Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. Gil is expected to begin weakening through the day Saturday as it continues moving over progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry and stable mid-level air. These unfavorable conditions should lead to a gradual erosion of the cyclone’s convective structure. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests that Gil will lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by Sunday, or in about 36 hours. The system is then forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by day 5, in line with the majority of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 787 FOPZ12 KNHC 020832 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 32 44(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 599 WTPZ32 KNHC 020832 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 126.8W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 126.8 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through much of the weekend. A slower motion toward the west is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin Saturday, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 17.4, -126.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 168 WTPZ22 KNHC 020831 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more