Aggregator

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 124.4W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 124.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast to occur on Tuesday and early Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the west or west-northwest later in the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected through Tuesday, and Kiko is expected to become a tropical storm during that time. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -124.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk will remain limited overnight. ...01z Update... Adjustments to the general thunderstorm lines have been made based on latest observations and trends. The biggest change is the removal of thunder altogether across the lower Ohio Valley. Otherwise, thunderstorms will remain possible along the TX and LA Gulf Coasts as thunderstorms associated with a weak low continue to shift westward overnight. Additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across into the Great Basin will continue through the overnight hours. Some strong gusts could occur across parts of the Great Basin given the strong background flow over the region, but convection itself should remain weak. Additional thunderstorms will develop in warm advection regime as a shortwave impulse/MCV lifts northeast across the eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Satellite data indicate that a small low pressure area located
about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to
become better defined, however, the associated showers and
thunderstorms still lack organization. Any significant increase
in the organization of the thunderstorm activity would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Tuesday
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A larger area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Although the circulation of this system
is not yet well defined, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for the development of a tropical depression within the
next day or so. This disturbance is expected to move to the
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 16 22:46:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 16 22:46:01 UTC 2019.

A lightning-caused wildfire about 4 miles northeast of Clints Well that began last week is currently being used to clean up forest fuels and burn across the landscape for restoration efforts. The Eden Fire was reported by the Hutch Mountain lookout just after noon on August 29 and is currently 2,625 acres, producing light to minimal smoke. Because of low humidity and low fuel moisture, the fire has continued to burn actively since its discovery. The fire was being monitored for several days before determining it would be allowed to burn and remove hazardous fuels left from years of previous fires and debris buildup.

MD 1980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Areas affected...Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162122Z - 162245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of multicell thunderstorms is expected to continue for a few more hours with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several strong thunderstorm cores have developed in the last hour in southern Arizona with a few 1.5 to 2 inch MESH cores. However, any threat of large hail or damaging winds should be isolated and limited in time due to the relatively unorganized nature of the convection. The 20Z Yuma sounding shows flow less than 20 knots below 8km with effective shear less than 20 knots. Given the weak flow, expect any additional convection to remain unorganized with occasional multicell clusters. Dewpoints from the mid 50s to low 60s and temperatures in the 90s have yielded MLCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg which will continue to support additional robust updraft development for the next 1 to 2 hours, where prior convection has not destabilized the boundary layer. No severe thunderstorm watch is expected. ..Bentley/Edwards.. 09/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31761239 32271248 32781225 33081178 33081064 32601014 31590968 31290977 31321111 31761239 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 20:36:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 21:31:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye feature. While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of northeasterly shear. Intensity estimates are lower than this morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt. Weakening is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues. The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes. This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to resume at long range. To account for this scenario, the new forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a more significant increase in winds. Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid- level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west- southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the central Pacific. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west- northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting the south-of-west motion as early as tonight. Thus the new forecast is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162035 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 24(29) 6(35) 2(37) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 2(20) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 124.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 124.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast for Tuesday, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday with that motion continuing into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, then little change in strength is expected on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -124.1 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 162034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

The Fork Fire in the South Warner Wilderness is a full suppression fire being managed using tactics that will have a low impact and maintain wilderness character. The fire has burned 39 acres of primarily dead and downed fuels. Fire activity has been minimal as the fire slowly consumes surface fuels. Over time the amount of heavy downed fuels on the ground, along with the proliferation of white fir trees has greatly increased the amount of fuel available to wildfire. This large quantity of fuel could increase the intensity of a fast moving fire and cause severe damage to the soils, trees and watershed. The Fork Fire will help reduce the dead and down fuel loading and improve wildlife habitat. The results are expected to promote long-term ecosystem integrity, sustainability and reduce the damage of high-severity wildland fires for the area in the future. The fire will also help reduce the amount of white fir trees encroaching on the ponderosa pines and shading out the quaking aspen...