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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Grams/Broyles.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Grams/Broyles.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Grams/Broyles.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Grams/Broyles.. 09/17/2019 Read more

The Gopher Fire is located in the Sky Lakes Wilderness, approximately 11 miles east of Prospect. The fire is the result of 5 small fires that burned together after the lightning storm that moved through the area September 5th. The fire is burning within the perimeter of the 2008 Middle Fork

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:58:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:53:29 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 2(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface center. The system has also developed an extensive convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually already be higher than that, so that may be conservative. Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 305/13 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general scenario, however some of the typically reliable track models, including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This small difference is important and could be the difference between Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope, favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance envelope, but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF through day 5 which shows no such interaction. Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for Lorena's intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture, but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear persists. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening for the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 100.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 13.7, -100.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 171455 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:49:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:46:55 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 171448 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer data and the subjective Dvorak estimates. The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid- latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of those models. While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another, this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 171447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 49(50) 15(65) X(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) 15N 110W 50 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 1(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 33(45) 18(63) 4(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 5(30) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 17(30) 9(39) 5(44) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 14(30) 6(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 171447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 108.2W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 108.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday, with a turn to the west-northwest forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a hurricane by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 11.9, -108.2 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:37:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:39:53 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171436 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 21(30) 20(50) 4(54) 2(56) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 9(28) 2(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE