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The rain was about a month too late to help the winter-seeded cereal wheat or treated rye, but pastures are beginning to turn green. Many cattle were being sold; some entire herds were up for sale. “The biggest and the hardest part of production agriculture is the mental game that you get put through. You have all this risk, where it’s financial, or it’s your physical labor and time,” the rancher stated. “When it doesn’t rain, you did all that work and have no return. It just wears on you. The refreshment of it finally raining was awesome. It kind of renews your spirit a little. You see the plants pop up when you dig a shovel full of soil. You see the earthworms back right there in that top four to six inches. So, we just need more days of rain.” KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), May 4, 2023

Many East Texas counties received rainfall, and more was in the forecast. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to surplus. Wet field and pasture conditions continued to be a problem for some producers. Ryegrass and clovers were being cut and baled where possible. Higher nighttime temperatures will be needed to promote warm-season forage growth. Row crops were doing fair to good. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good. Livestock were in fair to good condition with some supplementation still taking place. Cattle markets were steady to higher. Houston County reported all weight classes ended $4-$7 higher per hundredweight. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 9, 2023 Most of East Texas received enough rainfall to thoroughly saturate the ground. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to surplus. Storms brought cooler temperatures, especially overnight. Fluctuations in nighttime temperatures slowed warm-season grass growth. Producers were cutting ryegrass for bales and silage. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good overall. Livestock were in fair to good condition with some supplementation taking place. Cattle markets remained firm with quality animals dominating buyer interest, and slaughter figures remained steady. Producers were able to back off hay usage and completely eliminate it in some areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 25, 2023

The fifth snow survey of the season at Phillips Station revealed a snow depth of 59 inches and a snow water equivalent of 30 inches, which is 241 percent of average for May 1. Electronic readings from the 130 snow sensors across California indicate a statewide snow water equivalent of 49.2 inches, or 254% of average for the date. Overall, the statewide snowpack melted more slowly than usual during April as temperatures were below average early in the month, and there was more cloud cover. Temperatures increased in the latter part of April. California Department of Water Resources (Sacramento), May 1, 2023 The Department of Water Resources announced that State Water Project deliveries are expected to be 100% of requested water supplies for the first time since 2006. The March estimate was 75% of requested supplies. Water from the SWP is delivered to 29 public water agencies serving 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland. California Department of Water Resources (Sacramento), April 20, 2023 The State Water Project will deliver 75% of requested supplies as winter storms brought tremendous amounts of snow this winter. Los Angeles Times, March 24, 2023 The California Department of Water Resources announced an expected water allocation of 35% from the State Water Project, up from 30% in January. The Associated Press (New York), Feb 22, 2023 The series of storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California have partially filled reservoirs, allowing the State Water Project to offer 30% of requested water supplies to 29 public water agencies that serve 27 million Californians. The initial allocation in December was just 5%. California typically receives half its rain and snow by the end of January. Water managers will reassess conditions monthly during the winter and spring, and also consider snowpack data and runoff forecasts from February on. California Department of Water Resources (Sacramento) Jan 26, 2023 The Department of Water Resources announced an initial State Water Project allocation of 5 percent of requested supplies for 2023. The SWP provides water to 29 public water agencies that serve 27 million Californians. Water allocations are frequently low early in the wet season due to uncertainty in hydrologic forecasting. In addition, the expectation is for a fourth dry year and continued drought in California. Lake Oroville, the largest reservoir in the State Water Project system, is just 55% of average for this time of year. Oroville ended Water Year 2022 at about 400,000 acre-feet higher than the previous year. For the 2022 Water Year, the initial allocation was 0% on Dec. 1, 2021, with limited water designated only for any unmet human health and safety needs. Last year’s final allocation was 5 percent plus unmet health and safety needs. Four of the 29 State Water Contractors ultimately requested and received additional health and safety water supply. California Department of Water Resources (Sacramento, Calif.), Dec 1, 2022

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW AVC TO 30 NE RZZ TO 45 ENE ECG. ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079-083- 091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163-177-181- 183-185-187-191-195-092340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-081-117-595-092340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 205 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 091855Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and increase across the region, resulting in a few supercells and organized storm clusters, which will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Rocky Mount NC to 25 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

High utility bills in Colorado this past winter can be attributed to drought in California, where hydropower production was half of normal in 2022. To compensate for less electricity from hydropower, California utilities bought more natural gas, which increased prices across the West. In Colorado, the cost of delivered gas utilities rose nearly 100%. The drought-related gas prices affected heating bills and the price of electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that the price of electricity across the West may have risen by about 5%. The Colorado Sun (Denver), May 9, 2023

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-049-091-099-103-107-121-125-133-205-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-105- 109-145-167-185-217-225-229-092240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CASS CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR VERNON WEBSTER Read more

WW 206 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 092105Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East and Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized linear cluster of storms will continue to move southeastward across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri, while other semi-isolated severe storms may occur across southwest Missouri ahead of it. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Chanute KS to 45 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SLN TO 30 WSW TOP TO 10 W STJ. ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-009-015-017-031-045-053-059-073-079-087-111-113-115- 127-139-155-159-169-173-177-207-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARVEY JEFFERSON LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 204 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 091530Z - 092300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1030 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An increasingly organized cluster of storms across north-central Kansas and far south-central Nebraska as of 1030am CDT will continue to spread east-southeastward through late morning into afternoon, with some additional expansion of new storms on its southern flank across central Kansas. Damaging winds will be an increasingly prevalent concern with these storms, aside from large hail and some/brief tornado risk with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Salina KS to 35 miles south southeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0747 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204... FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS into southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204... Valid 092053Z - 092230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for potentially significant wind gusts and large hail will spread southeastward into the early evening. Downstream watch issuance now appears likely within the hour. DISCUSSION...The long-lived MCS continues to move across eastern KS late this afternoon, with sporadic measured gusts of 60-80 mph noted within the last 1-2 hours. A nearly stationary surface boundary is still noted in surface observations and on visible satellite imagery, though some modification has occurred on the cool side of the boundary, with increasing cumulus and MLCAPE noted from east of Topeka to south of Kansas City. Moderate to strong buoyancy will help to sustain this MCS as it moves southeastward into this evening, though increasingly marginal deep-layer flow/shear downstream could eventually limit the organization/intensity of the MCS to some extent. The greatest short-term severe wind threat may focus along the surface boundary into southeast KS, where instability and low-level convergence is more favorable and the gust front has not yet notably surged ahead of the leading convection. Based on the expected timing of the MCS, downstream watch issuance into far southeast KS and southwest MO is likely within the hour. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39039650 38669491 38069428 37469430 37229467 37329583 37559647 38039737 38519698 39039650 Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205... Valid 092052Z - 092215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue into the evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...There have been several severe hail reports and at least one damaging wind report across portions of eastern North Carolina where a few supercells have developed and moved southeast. These storms will continue to pose a severe weather threat as they move southeast as the environment becomes increasingly favorable. Farther north, storms along the front are less organized thus far. Likely due to weaker instability in the region with temperatures only near 80F with dewpoints near 60F. These storms could increase in severe weather potential as they move southeast toward better instability, but likely will not pose as great of a severe weather threat as the supercells farther south. These storms are closely tied to diurnal heating and will likely start to wane by mid to late evening as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 37027882 37337845 36977687 35577589 34567608 34267692 34167750 34307793 34587828 34987850 35667861 37027882 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east/southeast across parts of eastern Kansas through evening. Embedded swaths of very large hail, damaging severe gusts, and a few brief tornadoes are possible. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are also possible through early evening across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...20z Update - KS/MO Vicinity... The main changes to the outlook at 20z are to reorient the Enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) to include more of eastern KS to the west-central MO border. This is based on the expected continued east/southeast motion of the bowing line of convection currently over central to northeast KS. Swaths of damaging gusts, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible into early evening. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible with westward extent into parts of western KS along the outflow boundary as low-level upslope flow and strong heating allow for some airmass recovery from morning convection. ...Elsewhere... No other changes have been made to the previous outlook. For details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Kansas/southern Nebraska... A severe MCS continues to mature/expand and show early signs of modest southeastward acceleration as of late morning/1130AM CDT across north-central Kansas. As a surface cold pool expands, persistent warm/moist advection will help to maintain this MCS southeastward parallel to the instability/thickness gradient, with additional southward expansion likely across central Kansas early this afternoon as the boundary layer warms/destabilizes. The potential for widespread/locally intense wind gusts will likely increase as the MCS reaches east-central Kansas including the I-135 and near/south of I-70 corridors and Kansas Turnpike vicinity. Large hail will be possible, especially with semi-discrete storms on the southwest flank of the MCS (or completely distinct from it). A brief tornado risk may also exist with line-embedded circulations. Additional strong/severe development cannot be ruled out later this afternoon in vicinity of trailing outflow across northwest Kansas and/or atop the surface cold pool across northern Kansas/far southwest Nebraska. Storms may also develop around late afternoon trailing westward to the dryline in southwest Kansas. Should this occur, a broader MCS may form and push south-southeast into the Ozark Plateau to northern Oklahoma this evening. But an increasingly disorganized trend is anticipated tonight as mid-level flow weakens substantially with southern extent owing to the presence of an anticyclone over southern Oklahoma. ...Southeast Virginia and eastern Carolinas... No changes in outlook reasoning/assessment for this region. A shortwave trough will move southeast from the Lower Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic States today. A belt of enhanced westerly flow will accompany this feature, and provide support for sufficient deep-layer shear to foster thunderstorm organization. Although surface winds will be veered mostly to the west-northwest, there will still be adequate low-level moisture in place for weak to moderate buoyancy to develop given abundant insolation. Most guidance shows isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon with a mix of multicells and a few supercells. A threat for both severe hail and damaging winds should be greatest across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with more of an isolated damaging wind threat southward into South Carolina. ...Texas/Louisiana... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, influenced by development/intensification on the periphery of multiple MCVs via two de-intensified MCSs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely increase downstream of these features, later this morning into the afternoon. Despite the weak shear, low to mid 70s surface dew points suggest a threat for wet microbursts and isolated severe hail will be possible. A conditionally favorable supercell threat may redevelop in a portion of Deep South Texas later this afternoon. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies to the south of the minor mid-level lows will yield adequate bulk shear for supercells along residual convective outflow. Primary uncertainty is the degree of low-level moisture recovery in the wake of morning convective outflows (mean mixing ratio below 12 g/kg in the 12Z BRO sounding). ...Northeast Colorado to western North Dakota... Isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorm development is possible along a surface trough from the Nebraska Panhandle to western North Dakota vicinity. While MLCAPE will likely remain weak (at or below 1000 J/kg), 500-mb southwesterlies around 30-35 kt will support a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts into the early evening. Overnight, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms should develop in the northeast Colorado to Wyoming/Nebraska border area as weak mid-level height falls overspread weak low-level upslope flow. Isolated large hail will be the main threat. ...Central/eastern Montana... Long hodographs/forcing for ascent enhanced by an approaching mid-level trough, in conjunction with a modestly moist/unstable environment, may allow for some stronger or locally severe storms capable of hail and/or wind from mid-afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible across parts of central New Mexico. The most likely locations for these conditions are within the terrain where fuels may be a touch less receptive to fire spread. Dry thunderstorms are at least initially possible in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. Given the increase in moisture to the east, it is not clear how far east storms will remain dry. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... By day2/Wed, a compact mid-level trough will be centered over the Southwest with strong flow aloft extending eastward over the southern Rockies and High Plains. A surface low will rapidly deepen aiding in strong surface flow across such of NM, southern CO and the High Plains. Dry downslope winds and low humidity will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns. ...New Mexico and southern Colorado... As the main shortwave begins to eject over the southern Rockies, 60-70 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread NM and southern CO. A surface low will quickly deepen across southern CO enhancing downslope pressure gradients across much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Widespread winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are likely. By early afternoon, very warm surface temperatures, in combination with downsloping winds and the already dry air mass will favor RH values below 10%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated over much of central NM, extending north into southern CO. There remains some uncertainty on eastern extent of fire-weather conditions as the deepening low begins to draw surface moisture farther north and west. High-based thunderstorms may pose some risk for dry lightning in the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Strong surface wind fields may also support some risk for elevated fire-weather concerns despite more marginal humidity. The eastern extent of the probabilities may be adjusted in coming outlooks, but for now, uncertainty remains too high to introduce fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...19z Update - Eastern CO/Western KS/OK... The Day 3 outlook for Thursday (May 11) has been amended for expected severe potential further west than previously forecast. Operational 09/12z NAM/GFS forecast guidance has trended slower/further west (and more in line with ECMWF and 12z NAM 3km/RRFS/FV3) with the progression of an ejecting mid/upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains. This slower ejection of the shortwave trough is common in systems that tend to have a stronger meridional component. A surface low is expected to be located over southeast CO with a dryline extending south through the TX Panhandle and western TX Thursday morning. Convection will likely develop by late morning near the triple point over southeast CO and arcing east/southeast along the dryline through western KS. This morning activity will pose a risk for large hail initially. As the upper wave lifts northeast into the afternoon, convection is expected to shift north/northeast into a more unstable airmass. At the same time, additional development is expected south/southeast along the eastward-advancing dryline into central KS/OK. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible from parts of western/central KS into OK. A second round of storms may impact parts of eastern CO and western KS behind morning convection and associated with the eastward meandering surface low. Large hail and strong gusts will be possible with any second round of convection that develops during the afternoon. ...Previous Day 3 Discussion (issued 0730z 09 May)... ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie over the central High Plains area early in the day is forecast to pivot slowly northeastward across Nebraska and into South Dakota through the period. At this occurs, a surface low is forecast to shift northeastward out of Colorado along roughly the same path, while a trailing trough/dryline reaches central Kansas/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Elsewhere, ridging on the western and eastern flanks of the low will affect the West Coast, and the Southeast/Midwest, while northwesterly flow aloft prevails across New England. ...The Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... Ahead of the advancing surface system, afternoon heating across the central Plains and vicinity will combine with a seasonably moist boundary layer to yield moderate destabilization -- particularly from central Nebraska southward. While a low-level capping inversion will limit convective coverage with southward extent, particularly given the northeastward advance of the upper system, isolated storms are forecast to develop along the dryline by late afternoon as far south as central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Here, steep lapse rates and veering/increasing flow with height will support supercells, with very large hail and a damaging gust or two expected, and possibly a tornado. Farther north -- into Nebraska and South Dakota, instability will decrease with northward extent. Still, with low-level southeasterly flow veering to a more southerly direction at mid levels will support organized/rotating storms, with risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts along with a tornado or two. Storms may grow upscale overnight as the low-level jet increases, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley along with some hail/wind potential. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more

Missouri’s progress in planting corn was 92% and was quicker than occurred during the drought year of 2012, when dry weather allowed farmers to get in the field. Some Missouri farmers this year were waiting for rain to plant, however. AgWeb (Mexico, Mo.), May 9, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms -- capable of producing damaging winds and hail, and potentially a couple of tornadoes -- are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening within an area centered over the central High Plains. ...Southeast MT south to the OK/TX Panhandles... An upper trough over the western U.S. will shift east across the Four Corners vicinity toward the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs, meridional/southerly mid/upper level flow will modestly increase over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains vicinity. At the surface, a weak low/trough will extend southward from near the Palmer Divide to the NM/TX border. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture over the region with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Near-60 F dewpoints are possible further east toward western NE/KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) atop this modest boundary-layer moisture will support weak to moderate destabilization. Some model discrepancy is apparent over portions of southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity with the 12z NAM maintaining a much cooler airmass compared to other guidance. This is likely due to placement of morning convection and outflow related to storms in the Day 1 period. This lends to quite a bit of uncertainty in convective evolution in the Day 2 period. Nevertheless, convection is expected to develop near higher terrain during the early/mid-afternoon and spread east/northeast across eastern WY/CO and into SD/NE/KS by evening. Additional more isolated convection also is expected to develop along the surface trough over the southern High Plains. Initially, large hail will be the main hazard with more discrete storms. However, where stronger surface heating occurs, damaging gusts also will be possible. Some upscale development into clusters/bows may increase wind potential with time and eastward extent as well. The tornado risk is more uncertain. Low-level flow will generally be weak with northward extent and the more meridional flow is producing vertical shear profiles less favorable for tornadoes. The greatest relative risk will likely be confined to northeast CO and vicinity where backed low-level flow and somewhat stronger vertical shear is forecast. If the cooler, more capped solution presented by the NAM unfolds, the tornado risk may be diminished even across this area. ...Northeast ND into northern MN... A shortwave impulse is forecast to move atop the northern Plains/Upper Midwest upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. This will allow for a belt of enhanced westerly flow to overspread the region atop modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7 C/km), aiding in weak destabilization (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southeastward-advancing front initially over Manitoba and spread southeast into northeast ND and northern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in marginal effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, allowing for organized cells despite rather low/midlevel flow. Elongated, straight forecast hodographs coupled with modest instability suggest marginally severe hail is possible with this activity as it spreads east/southeast near the international border from late afternoon into the evening hours. ...Southeast TX/Western LA vicinity... An upper ridge is forecast to extend from the TN Valley/Central Gulf Coast vicinity, north/northwest toward the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A weakness/shortwave impulse within the western periphery of the eastern U.S. upper ridge will migrate across TX toward the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is forecast in the vicinity of east-central TX Wednesday morning. This feature will lift north/northeast through the day. A few strong storms are possible within broader area of precipitation/ongoing MCS during the morning across southeast TX/Upper TX Coast. Additional convection and locally strong storms also will be possible through the afternoon across southeast TX toward the Sabine River and perhaps as far north as the ArkLaTex vicinity on the eastern periphery of the low/MCV. However, widespread cloudiness/persistent precipitation will limit heating and destabilization through the day. Some enhancement of otherwise modest vertical shear by the low/MCV may support transient strong/organized cells. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazard with this activity through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more

Game wardens with the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks warned boaters via Facebook that water levels in the state’s waterways remained low, in spite of the recent rainfall. Caution should be exercised when boating in the Sunflower State. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), May 9, 2023