Aggregator

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH AND LATITUDE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 125.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 125.0 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west on Wednesday, and a west-northwestward motion Thursday into Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible today, followed by some increase in strength on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH AND LATITUDE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -125.0 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND TONIGHT FOR MN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are expected across the northern high Plains area this afternoon/evening, and overnight across Minnesota and vicinity. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is expected near the northwest ND/northeast MT/SK border by this evening, and this cyclone will move northeastward into southern MB overnight. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the cyclone (within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet), but lingering convective inhibition and only modest low-level moisture/buoyancy will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support at least isolated severe/damaging winds from eastern WY/western SD this afternoon into western ND this evening. ...MN area today into tonight... A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across central MN, in a zone of focused low-level warm advection associated with a compact midlevel shortwave trough. This zone of ascent will spread northeastward toward the MN Arrowhead by early afternoon. Though the convection will be slightly elevated this morning, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two with hail by early afternoon along the southern flank of the convective cluster. There will be no clear focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon across MN, in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough. East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. A pre-frontal, mixed-mode band of slightly elevated storms is expected to form tonight near the SD/MN border and spread northeastward and eastward overnight. The increasing low-level flow and MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg will support a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...TX coastal plain through early Wednesday... A weak tropical low south of Matagorda will drift northward to the Fort Bend/western Harris County area by 12z Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection and very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND TONIGHT FOR MN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are expected across the northern high Plains area this afternoon/evening, and overnight across Minnesota and vicinity. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is expected near the northwest ND/northeast MT/SK border by this evening, and this cyclone will move northeastward into southern MB overnight. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the cyclone (within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet), but lingering convective inhibition and only modest low-level moisture/buoyancy will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support at least isolated severe/damaging winds from eastern WY/western SD this afternoon into western ND this evening. ...MN area today into tonight... A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across central MN, in a zone of focused low-level warm advection associated with a compact midlevel shortwave trough. This zone of ascent will spread northeastward toward the MN Arrowhead by early afternoon. Though the convection will be slightly elevated this morning, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two with hail by early afternoon along the southern flank of the convective cluster. There will be no clear focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon across MN, in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough. East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. A pre-frontal, mixed-mode band of slightly elevated storms is expected to form tonight near the SD/MN border and spread northeastward and eastward overnight. The increasing low-level flow and MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg will support a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...TX coastal plain through early Wednesday... A weak tropical low south of Matagorda will drift northward to the Fort Bend/western Harris County area by 12z Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection and very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND TONIGHT FOR MN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are expected across the northern high Plains area this afternoon/evening, and overnight across Minnesota and vicinity. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is expected near the northwest ND/northeast MT/SK border by this evening, and this cyclone will move northeastward into southern MB overnight. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the cyclone (within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet), but lingering convective inhibition and only modest low-level moisture/buoyancy will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support at least isolated severe/damaging winds from eastern WY/western SD this afternoon into western ND this evening. ...MN area today into tonight... A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across central MN, in a zone of focused low-level warm advection associated with a compact midlevel shortwave trough. This zone of ascent will spread northeastward toward the MN Arrowhead by early afternoon. Though the convection will be slightly elevated this morning, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two with hail by early afternoon along the southern flank of the convective cluster. There will be no clear focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon across MN, in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough. East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. A pre-frontal, mixed-mode band of slightly elevated storms is expected to form tonight near the SD/MN border and spread northeastward and eastward overnight. The increasing low-level flow and MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg will support a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...TX coastal plain through early Wednesday... A weak tropical low south of Matagorda will drift northward to the Fort Bend/western Harris County area by 12z Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection and very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/17/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is close to becoming a
tropical depression. Advisories on this system could be initiated
later this morning or this afternoon while the low moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
250 miles south of Acapulco is becoming better defined and is close
to becoming a tropical storm. Advisories will likely be initiated
later this morning, and this system will continue to move west-
northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico during
the next few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings
could be required later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170940 CCA TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 08:53:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 09:31:43 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170852 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up. Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little generous based on a recent scatterometer pass. Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the consensus aids. The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest, and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical storm by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170851 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 17(33) 3(36) 2(38) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 2(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO CRAWLING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 124.7W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 124.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest is expected today, followed by a turn to the west to west-northwest by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through this evening and Kiko is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Some slight re-strengthening is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO CRAWLING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -124.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170850 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin or Four Corners area northeastward into the Northern Plains on Friday/D4, with a cold front progressing across the region. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg is likely ahead of the front, over the eastern Dakotas, northern NE and into western MN. Storms will become widespread during the day with little if any capping. Steep lapse rates aloft and increasing mean winds through a deep layer will support areas of damaging winds and hail, with mixed storm modes expected. For Saturday/D5, models suggest low predictability with the evolution of the northern Plains/Great Lakes trough, but severe storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday for parts of the region. An antecedent high over the East will likely mitigate storm potential as the upper trough continues into the Northeast during the D6-D8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin or Four Corners area northeastward into the Northern Plains on Friday/D4, with a cold front progressing across the region. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg is likely ahead of the front, over the eastern Dakotas, northern NE and into western MN. Storms will become widespread during the day with little if any capping. Steep lapse rates aloft and increasing mean winds through a deep layer will support areas of damaging winds and hail, with mixed storm modes expected. For Saturday/D5, models suggest low predictability with the evolution of the northern Plains/Great Lakes trough, but severe storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday for parts of the region. An antecedent high over the East will likely mitigate storm potential as the upper trough continues into the Northeast during the D6-D8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin or Four Corners area northeastward into the Northern Plains on Friday/D4, with a cold front progressing across the region. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg is likely ahead of the front, over the eastern Dakotas, northern NE and into western MN. Storms will become widespread during the day with little if any capping. Steep lapse rates aloft and increasing mean winds through a deep layer will support areas of damaging winds and hail, with mixed storm modes expected. For Saturday/D5, models suggest low predictability with the evolution of the northern Plains/Great Lakes trough, but severe storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday for parts of the region. An antecedent high over the East will likely mitigate storm potential as the upper trough continues into the Northeast during the D6-D8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin or Four Corners area northeastward into the Northern Plains on Friday/D4, with a cold front progressing across the region. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg is likely ahead of the front, over the eastern Dakotas, northern NE and into western MN. Storms will become widespread during the day with little if any capping. Steep lapse rates aloft and increasing mean winds through a deep layer will support areas of damaging winds and hail, with mixed storm modes expected. For Saturday/D5, models suggest low predictability with the evolution of the northern Plains/Great Lakes trough, but severe storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday for parts of the region. An antecedent high over the East will likely mitigate storm potential as the upper trough continues into the Northeast during the D6-D8 period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated storms producing large hail are possible Thursday evening and overnight over the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue to slowly move east across the Great Basin and toward the Rockies with increasing south/southwest flow aloft into the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over the Southeast, with a surface high over the Mid Atlantic maintaining dry conditions there. Southerly winds over the Plains will maintain 65-70 F dewpoints from TX to MN, with a tropical disturbance possibly over eastern TX. The slow-moving western trough will also create lift over the northern High Plains as a cold front encounters an unstable air mass Thursday afternoon into Friday. ...Northern High Plains... Low pressure will develop over eastern WY during the afternoon with a wind shift over eastern MT. Southeast surface winds will maintain moist and unstable conditions over the Dakotas and Nebraska during the day, with continued northwestward warm advection during the evening with a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Steepening lapse rates aloft combined with sufficient deep-layer shear will support at least isolated severe storms capable of damaging hail. Locally damaging winds cannot be ruled out, although the majority of the storms are expected overnight. ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated storms producing large hail are possible Thursday evening and overnight over the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue to slowly move east across the Great Basin and toward the Rockies with increasing south/southwest flow aloft into the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over the Southeast, with a surface high over the Mid Atlantic maintaining dry conditions there. Southerly winds over the Plains will maintain 65-70 F dewpoints from TX to MN, with a tropical disturbance possibly over eastern TX. The slow-moving western trough will also create lift over the northern High Plains as a cold front encounters an unstable air mass Thursday afternoon into Friday. ...Northern High Plains... Low pressure will develop over eastern WY during the afternoon with a wind shift over eastern MT. Southeast surface winds will maintain moist and unstable conditions over the Dakotas and Nebraska during the day, with continued northwestward warm advection during the evening with a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Steepening lapse rates aloft combined with sufficient deep-layer shear will support at least isolated severe storms capable of damaging hail. Locally damaging winds cannot be ruled out, although the majority of the storms are expected overnight. ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated storms producing large hail are possible Thursday evening and overnight over the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue to slowly move east across the Great Basin and toward the Rockies with increasing south/southwest flow aloft into the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over the Southeast, with a surface high over the Mid Atlantic maintaining dry conditions there. Southerly winds over the Plains will maintain 65-70 F dewpoints from TX to MN, with a tropical disturbance possibly over eastern TX. The slow-moving western trough will also create lift over the northern High Plains as a cold front encounters an unstable air mass Thursday afternoon into Friday. ...Northern High Plains... Low pressure will develop over eastern WY during the afternoon with a wind shift over eastern MT. Southeast surface winds will maintain moist and unstable conditions over the Dakotas and Nebraska during the day, with continued northwestward warm advection during the evening with a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Steepening lapse rates aloft combined with sufficient deep-layer shear will support at least isolated severe storms capable of damaging hail. Locally damaging winds cannot be ruled out, although the majority of the storms are expected overnight. ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more