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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the large area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized. If this development
trend continues, then a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form later today or tonight. This system will continue to move
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for the
next few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Late planted cotton in Central Texas was badly stressed by the severe drought conditions, which affected much of the district. Dry conditions also prevented planting of winter grazing. Pastures remained in poor condition, and livestock were given supplemental feed. The Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Sept. 17, 2019 Late planted cotton in Central Texas was suffering and manifesting signs of heat and/or drought stress. Pasture conditions continued to deteriorate, and stock tanks were getting low. The rice crop failed. Rangeland conditions were poor to very poor. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019

Pastures in Southeast Texas were browning as the region needed rainfall badly. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 5, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 02:45:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:31:55 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center. Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its slow trek for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170233 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 25(34) 3(37) 1(38) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 7(21) 2(23) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI