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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of northern and central Utah this afternoon into tonight. ...Utah/Great Basin Vicinity... A shortwave trough approaching the Pacific coast early this morning will continue to progress eastward across the Great Basin through the forecast period. Residual midlevel moisture should be sufficient for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms across eastern AZ/UT as forcing increases with the approach of the upper trough. However, effective shear will remain weak despite increasing speed shear for much of the period. This will limit severe potential for much of the day, though a well-mixed sub-cloud layer producing inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles could support some locally gusty winds. Overnight, shear profiles will improve as the trough impinges on the area and a surface cold front sweeps southeast across ID/NV/CA and into UT after around 06z. Instability will be limited, but guidance continues to suggest a weak convective line associated with the front moving across parts of northern/central UT overnight. Given the strength of the background wind field and the dry sub-cloud layer, some downward momentum transport could result in a couple of severe wind gusts associated with weak convection. ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/16/2019 Read more

Yakima Basin junior water rights holders will continue receiving 69 percent of their allotted allocations, an increase of two percentage points since July, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced on Aug. 16. Cooler weather in July allowed junior water rights holders to have just a little bit more water. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), Aug. 16, 2019 Junior water rights holders in the Yakima River basin will get an estimated 67 percent supply for irrigation after the Bureau of Reclamation updated its forecast. Senior water rights holders will still receive a full allotment. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), July 3, 2019 Junior water rights holders in the Yakima River Basin, including the Roza Irrigation District, were prorated to 72 percent as water supplies were low. The forecast will be updated on July 3. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), June 30, 2019 Water users in the Roza Irrigation District and other junior rights holders will receive 74 percent of their allotment through Sept. 30, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s June forecast. Low reservoir levels in October 2018, lower than normal winter runoff and below average mountain snowfall limited water supplies. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), June 7, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...01z Update... Thunder has been removed from the Midwestern U.S. Earlier thunderstorm activity has diminished with loss of daytime heating and due to a less favorable airmass downstream across the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Diurnally driven thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed across AL/GA and portions of TX/LA eastward to the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Isolated storms will continue to be possible along the TX/LA coastal vicinity as a broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible across parts of southern/central FL and the FL east coast as Tropical Storm Humberto continue to pivot north/northeast tonight well offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Thunderstorm activity will persist a few more hours across parts of AZ/NM and vicinity as a weak mid/upper low lifts northeast across the region. Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight along the WA/OR coast as a shortwave trough moves toward the Pacific coast. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2019 Read more

The Meadow Creek Fire was sparked by lightning on Sept. 8. It was fully contained on Sept. 12, after burning 4,231

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle of the week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 15 22:29:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 15 22:29:01 UTC 2019.

The Hunt Fire ignited in Rio Blanco County, Colorado on Thursday, September 5 as a result of lightning. It is located in a remote area, burning in heavy dead and down fuels and thick brush on valleys and ridges north of the Roan Plateau, between Hunter Creek and West Willow Creek.Crews are managing the fire for resource benefits, while protecting values at risk, which include several unoccupied, isolated historic cabins and dispersed oil and gas facilities. Firefighters will work to keep the fire north of the Rio Blanco County line, south of an existing petroleum pipeline, east of Hunter Creek, and west of West Willow Creek.An area closure is in effect on public lands north of the Rio Blanco County line, east of Hunter Creek Road, west of Willow Creek Road, and south of RBC Road 5.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix. While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later. The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 9(36) 3(39) 1(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 121.9W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 121.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -121.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.