Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Primary change to current outlook has been to trim general thunderstorm area over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. In wake of shortwave trough, forcing for ascent will be limited to weak convergence and weak warm advection along and in advance of a southeast-moving cold front the remainder of the period. As a result, coverage of any additional thunderstorms is expected to be sparse. ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WESTERN UT...EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ... ...Southern California: Wind/RH... The primary change with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated fire weather area farther westward into the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and southward along/near the coastal ranges east of San Diego. While low-level flow will be onshore across these areas, RH values are forecast to remain reduced at higher elevations, with minimum values of 10-20% amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions may also continue overnight due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering gusty winds. ...Central/Eastern Utah: Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast soundings across portions of central/eastern Utah tomorrow afternoon suggest a potential for relatively high-based thunderstorms with fast storm motions. While precipitable water values are forecast to be somewhat marginal for isolated dry thunderstorms (e.g., 0.75"+), the fast storm motions and relatively dry fuels may be enough to compensate and allow for lightning ignitions -- especially on the periphery of storm cores. While a dry thunderstorm area was withheld with this outlook due to uncertainties regarding thunderstorm coverage, one may be needed in future outlooks. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin into portions of the Intermountain West from Monday into Monday night. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will sweep across portions of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. ...Great Basin and vicinity... A broad area of elevated to critical conditions is again expected over portions of the Great Basin and vicinity on Monday, with the area of greatest threat shifted eastward compared to D1/Sunday. Poor overnight RH recovery into Monday morning may allow critical conditions to develop early in the day ahead of the cold front. Critical conditions will become widespread across much of NV into portions of western UT and perhaps northwest AZ by the afternoon, as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and RH values drop below 15%. The northwestern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the timing of the cold front. Some areas northwest of the current critical delineation may see at least brief critical conditions before the front passes. An abrupt wind shift will accompany the front, which will impact the behavior of any ongoing fires, though RH values should rise fairly quickly in the wake of the front. The eastern portion of the critical area, where the front is not expected until Monday night, will see poor RH recovery during the evening and a more prolonged period of critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. ...Great Basin region... An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within 30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of higher momentum air to the surface. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 09/15/2019 Read more

The Carson National Forest will be managing the lightning-caused Amole Fire on the Camino Real Ranger District to spread within a defined area in order to fulfill its natural role of reducing dense forest fuels and improving overall ecosystem health. Removing these fuels will lessen the potential for future severe wildfires along Highway 518 and further protect high voltage transmission and fiber optic lines that service the Taos and Peñasco area. Fire managers are employing these tactics to allow the fire to play its natural role in the ecosystem, promoting a more fire resilient

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NV...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHEAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NV... Higher-end critical meteorological fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon/evening across portions of far northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and far southeast Oregon. At 12Z, the upstream MFR RAOB sampled southwest winds of around 60 mph near 15 kft along the leading edge of an area of enhanced mid-level flow associated with a vigorous mid/upper-level trough located just offshore. This area of enhanced flow aloft is forecast to overspread far northeast California and vicinity this afternoon/evening and be reasonably well timed with peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep low-level lapse rates, which should foster efficient downward mixing of the stronger flow from aloft, with sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph developing by mid/late afternoon (localized gusts 40+ mph). While high-level clouds -- currently observed on satellite imagery -- may temper surface warming somewhat, high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s coupled with a very dry air mass (surface dewpoints in the low teens) will allow for minimum RH values of 8-15%. The higher-end critical conditions are most likely to occur between 2-7 pm PDT. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with only minimal changes needed to reflect the latest observations and ensemble guidance. Please see the discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper trough is forecast to amplify and shift eastward across the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin/interior Northwest by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from the northern Great Basin into portions of the northern High Plains, with a surface trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. ...Great Basin and vicinity... As low/midlevel flow increases in advance of the strong upper trough, a broad area of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions is forecast to develop from the Great Basin and vicinity eastward into portions of southern WY. High-end critical conditions are likely over northwest NV and adjacent portions of northeast CA, southeast OR, and far southwest ID. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with minimum RH values of 8-15%, with localized areas of extremely critical conditions possible. Another area of critical conditions is forecast over portions of central/eastern NV, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-15%. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected across both critical areas, and critical conditions may persist through late tonight in some areas. Elsewhere, critically low RH is expected over the remainder of the elevated area, though slightly weaker winds and/or less receptive fuels preclude any critical upgrade for those regions. Elevated to locally critical wind/RH will also likely develop across portions of eastern ID into southwest MT, but fuels are currently expected to be mostly unreceptive, so no delineation was included for that area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Far southeast AZ and southwest NM... A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be confined to the international border with abundant cloud coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant a severe risk area. ..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019 Read more

This will be the last daily update for the Caribou Lake Fire unless significant activity occurs. Visit AKFireInfo for the current information about wildfires across Alaska. The Caribou Lake Fire, located 25 miles northeast of Homer, Alaska, was first reported on August 19, 2019. A load of BLM Alaska Smokejumpers initially responded to the fire to protect the nearly 30 structures that were threatened by the fire. Tactical firefighting aircraft including Fire Bosses, two heavy airtankers, and the local Alaska Division of Forestry helicopter also responded to assist firefighters with both water and retardant drops. On August 20, smokejumpers, assisted by a dozer, began building fire line on the southern edge of the fire to reduce the threat to nearby structures. The Caribou Lake Fire was active on August 21; moving toward structures as poor visibility limited aircraft support. As visibility improved, aircraft were able to drop retardant to slow the spread of the fire. The Redding...

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates. The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now. Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake