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The Black Butte Fire is located 24.9 miles south of Unity, OR.  The fire started on 08/03/2021 following a lightning storm.      September 30, 2021 Update: Firefighters have made significant progress on the Black Butte Fire and it is now 100%

Lake Shasta is at its second lowest level since the dam was constructed in 1945. Boat docks are high and dry. Hydropower generation continues, as do releases for environmental and agricultural needs. The low water level also exposes interesting historical relics typically hidden beneath the water, such as train tunnels, the old Highway 99 roadbed and car bridges. Redding Record Searchlight (Calif.), Sept 28, 2021

Stage 1 drought restrictions took effect on Sept. 1 as the Edwards Aquifer water level fell to 659.8 feet. Community Impact – New Braunfels (Texas), Sept 1, 2021

The Marin Municipal Water District is seeking emergency state approval to withhold water from endangered coho salmon by reducing water releases into Lagunitas Creek this winter. Environmentalists are cognizant, however, that the district and water customers are not meeting their goal of cutting water use by 40% and still have other water-saving options available, such as banning lawn watering and pool filling. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), Sept 2, 2021

The Marin Municipal Water District approved $2.2 million in contracts on a proposed emergency pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge. The utility is proposing to construct a $65 million pipeline from Richmond to Marin County in case the coming winter is dry. The pipeline is not a done deal, and a feasibility study should be completed by early October to provide more information on the potential project. If the board goes ahead with the pipeline, it should be ready for use in June 2022 to carry water for the district’s 191,000 residents in central and southern Marin. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), Aug 30, 2021

The National Park Service gave boat owners who store their boats at Elk Creek Marina 10 days to remove vessels from the water due to drought. Blue Mesa was less than 38% full as water was being sent downstream to prop up Lake Powell and prolong hydropower production. While releasing the water from Blue Mesa disrupted recreation on the reservoir, it enhanced rafting and fishing downstream of Blue Mesa. Colorado Public Radio (Centennial, Colo.), Sept 3, 2021

Ukiah officials announced on Aug. 31 that they were preparing to deliver water to coastal communities such as the village of Mendocino. Ukiah Daily Journal (Calif.), Aug 31, 2021

Soil moisture conditions were very short to short in most areas. Forages were browning due to heat and lack of moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions were declining. Ranchers were storing hay and many reported three cuttings this season. Feed prices continued to increase. Supplemental feeding was increasing as well. Stock tanks needed replenishing in some areas but were full in others. Summer conditions were good for deer and quail, but drier conditions were pushing deer to browse along roadways. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 8, 2021 South Texas ranchers were providing supplemental feed to livestock and wildlife. Feed prices were rising. Stock tanks and pastures needed rain. Soil moisture was very short to short in the northern part of the district. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 24, 2021

Water was turned off to various parts of Mt. Diablo, due to drought. Water springs on Mt. Diablo were at a trickle, and water storage tanks were nearly empty. The higher one is on the mountain, the less likely there is running water. Bring plenty of bottled water if you visit. KRON4 (San Francisco, Calif.), Sept 1, 2021

Runoff has been below normal at the Garrison Dam, due to drought. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers requests that all owners of boats, watercraft or docks to remove their property from the Missouri River as the releases decrease from 21,000 cubic feet per second to 13,500 cfs by mid-September. Shallow waters meant danger from hitting barely submerged objects. Devils Lake was also low. KX News (Bismarck, N.D.), Sept 2, 2021

Drought has all sorts of wildlife turning up in the East Bay area—turkeys, wild pigs, mountain lions and even bears—as the animals search for food and water. CBS San Francisco (Calif.), Sept 2, 2021

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly approved 87 of the state’s 105 counties being in warning or watch status. Fourteen counties were placed in a warning status, while 73 entered a watch status. Drought Watch: Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Cowley, Decatur, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Edwards, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Geary, Gove, Graham, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Harvey, Haskell, Hodgeman, Jackson, Jefferson, Jewell, Johnson, Kearny, Kingman, Kiowa, Lane, Leavenworth, Logan, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, Meade, Morris, Morton, Nemaha, Ness, Norton, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Riley, Rooks, Rush, Saline, Scott, Sedgwick, Seward, Shawnee, Sheridan, Smith, Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, Trego, Wabaunsee, Wallace, Washington, Wichita, Wyandotte. Drought Warning: Barber, Barton, Cheyenne, Ellsworth, Harper, Lincoln, McPherson, Mitchell, Osborne, Rawlins, Rice, Russell, Sherman, Thomas. KSN-TV (Wichita, Kan.), Sept 2, 2021

Emigrant Fire Story The Emigrant fire started as tractor-trailer fire on the northbound Vista Del Lago exit on Interstate 5 near Pyramid Lake. The first report into the Angeles National Forest was at 1:34 p.m. on September 17, 2021.   The first firefighters on-scene reported that the fire had quickly spread to the vegetation adjacent to the interstate highway and ran up the slope. With the hot, dry weather and wind, the fire quickly spread in a northerly direction, burning uphill in steep terrain with gullies and drop-offs.  The US Forest Service along with Los Angeles County Fire Department sent considerable ground and aerial firefighters to the scene and battled the fire. Initially a total of twelve aircraft responded to the fire, including retardant dropping airtankers, super scoopers and helicopters providing much needed assistance to ground based firefighters. On the ground, fire engines, hand crews, fire dozers and water tenders attacked the flanks of the fire, eventually...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may generate hail across portions of the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania late tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified northern stream will persist, with troughs crossing the northwestern CONUS/ southwestern Canada region and southeastern Canada/northeastern U.S. mainland. A shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of southwestern MN, western IA and eastern NE, is forecast to move through the broader cyclonic-flow field toward the eastern trough. By 12Z tomorrow, the shortwave trough should reach parts of PA, WV and OH. Farther west, synoptic-scale ridging will shift eastward out of the central Rockies and northern High Plains, reaching the lower/mid Missouri Valley and MB by the end of the period. A strong upstream trough -- now positioned over the Pacific south of a cyclone now west of Vancouver Island -- will move inland across northern CA/OR/WA between 00-06Z. This trough should reach the northern Great Basin and ID by 12Z. As associated height falls spread eastward toward the northern/central Rockies, a cut-off low now over western NM near the AZ border will move slowly northeastward. Its cyclonic-flow field will spread across the CO/NM Rockies and central/southern High Plains. A convectively augmented shortwave perturbation -- apparent over the TX Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region -- may pivot northward then northwestward around the broader gyre today into this evening, and become the primary 500-mb low overnight over the San Juans near the CO/NM line. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western QC across Lake Huron, southern WI, and southern NE. This front should reach Lake Ontario, southern Lower MI, and southern IA by 00Z, becoming quasistationary westward across the southern NE/ northeastern CO region. By 12Z, the front should reach central New England, northwestern PA and central IL. Substantial surface moisture (dew points mid 60s and upward) remains confined to the Gulf, southern FL and southern AZ. ...OH Valley/PA overnight... Isolated to scattered, elevated thunderstorms are expected tonight -- primarily after 06Z and ahead of the surface cold front. Marginally sever hail is possible from the most intense cores relatively early in the local convective cycle, with relatively discrete cells, before modes become more clustered/messy. Large-scale ascent -- both as warm advection and DCVA preceding the shortwave trough -- will contribute to steepening mid/upper-level lapse rates across this area. Low-level moisture advection and transport above the boundary layer will increase buoyancy and reduce MUCINH, as increasingly buoyant parcels lift to an LFC with time. Forecast soundings suggest around 800-1200 J/kg MUCAPE, a substantial fraction of which will be in hail-growth zones in mid/upper levels. However, usable vertical shear will be modest with nearly unidirectional flow through the cloud-bearing or effective layer. Forecast soundings indicate 25-35 kt effective- shear magnitudes, which will be somewhat greater with westward extent. However, convective coverage may be larger and more certain eastward, contributing to uncertainty on severe potential. ...Southwest TX... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening from the Permian Basin to near the lowest Pecos River, in a zone of weak but sufficient low-level convergence. Lift will be aided (and MLCINH minimized) by diabatic heating in the area behind the ejecting Trans-Pecos trough, whose backside DCVA field should be well north of the area by mid/late afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer may support strong gusts or small hail. However, weak low/middle-level flow, and related lack of shear (effective-shear magnitudes 20-30 kt) indicate poor organization. At this time any severe potential appears too uncertain and conditional for a categorical outlook. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 09/27/2021 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 27 13:12:02 UTC 2021.

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 27 13:12:02 UTC 2021.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271107
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this
system during the latter parts of the week while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward, remaining well offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

With the Carson River running dry, there are fewer suckerfish and minnow. Area ranchers have sold livestock as pastureland goes dry, too. Ranchers were also moving cattle off of federal grazing areas, due to poor conditions, stated an environmental scientist for the Nevada Department of Agriculture. Hay was a pricey $300 per ton, contributing to the livestock sales. Carson River flows were very low like during droughts in 1977 and 2015. Reno Gazette (Nev.), Sept 3, 2021

Drought cost a farmer near Springville thousands of dollars in revenue due to the irrigation demands of moving pipe and pumping water. The farmer’s main crop is alfalfa and the first two cuttings of four were much lighter than normal. Ranchers in central and southern Utah have to sell livestock early at a loss, according to the president of the Utah Farm Bureau. He also noted that most farmers lost irrigation water early. KSTU-FOX13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Sept 1, 2021