1 year 10 months ago
Hot, dry weather at the end of the growing season resulted in corn yields that were lower than expected. The October NASS corn yield estimates were several bushels per acre lower than the previous two months. The lower yield estimates for the Western Corn Belt led to the lower national corn yield estimate of 173.0 bpa in the October NASS report. Late season drought and heat in 2000 and 2010 also brought the yield down at the end of the season.
DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Oct 19, 2023
1 year 10 months ago
An ethanol plant in Laddonia needed feedstocks because the yield of the corn grown in the vicinity of the plant was about 50% of normal, due to drought. A lot of corn had already been transported to the plant from other parts of Missouri.
For a time, the Laddonia ethanol plant was offering 60 cents more than grain elevators along the Mississippi River at St. Louis. This was a highly unusual marketing strategy to get farmers to sell their corn to the plant rather than elsewhere.
Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Oct 13, 2023
1 year 10 months ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190252
TCDEP2
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late
this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level
eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate
convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is
not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90
kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS
range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data,
the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt.
For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be
relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears
likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the
conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue
moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak
mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to
its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but
confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h.
After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly
upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level
trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will
likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting
increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that
weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its
vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward.
However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is
dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow
down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall
just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the
deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However,
the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should
resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all
indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to
reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity
forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus
with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The
updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous
one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions
of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there
should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since
larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the
high uncertainty in this case.
Key Messages:
1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight
while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico.
2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when
it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and
western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity,
there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to
southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches
could be required there later tonight or on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 10 months ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190251
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight
or on Thursday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected
by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight.
Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the
weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 10 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.
...01Z Update...
Convection, beneath the mid-level cold core of the low digging to
the east-southeast of the mid Missouri Valley, briefly produced some
lightning during the late afternoon near the western Minnesota/Iowa
border vicinity. However, this appeared largely supported by
destabilization associated with insolation, and has diminished with
the loss of daytime heating.
More recently, some lightning has been noted within the convective
band ahead of the trailing short wave trough, along an associated
weak southeastward advancing cold front, to the west-northwest of
Springfield MO. While this convective band could generate
additional lightning as it spreads eastward across the middle
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys overnight, it appears that this will
be rather sporadic and sparse, with destabilization forecast to
remain limited by only modest steepening of mid/upper lapse rates
and weak boundary-layer moisture return.
..Kerr.. 10/19/2023
Read more1 year 10 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182327
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on strengthening
Hurricane Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next couple
of days is expected to be slow to occur. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to meander
for the next several days and then drift northward or northwestward
starting on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 10 months ago
Grape yields were lower than usual in Shenandoah Valley, but the fruit quality was better, according to local growers. Drought also mitigated diseases and pests, so less spraying was needed.
The Northern Virginia Daily (Strasburg, Va.), Oct 16, 2023
