Aggregator

The Alabama Forestry Commission reissued a Fire Alert for all 67 counties in the state. In the 32 counties mostly north of Interstate 20, burn permits will not be issued. In the 35 counties mostly south of Interstate 20, certified prescribed burn managers may get a one-day burn permit. In the past week, wildland firefighters have responded to 111 wildfires that charred more than 1,881 acres of forestland. AL.com (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 24, 2023

A farm in New Orleans that grows lettuce, arugula and other leafy greens lost thousands of dollars’ worth of lettuce, but still managed to provide customers with leafy greens. Farm operators watered 22 hours a day, but were going to pull that back to 15 or 16 hours a day. One urban farm spent $1,500 during two weeks in September to increase their irrigation capacity. Another urban farm has delayed communicating about this season’s subscription service due to uncertainty of intense heat and drought. Drought will also determine how much local farms can help with food insecurity in New Orleans. The growing season was getting started in the Greater New Orleans area. Local farmers were already enduring crop loss from drought. Verite News (New Orleans, La.), Oct 11, 2023

Farmers were working to get their crops out of the field, but with a second year of drought slowing navigation on the Mississippi River, grain storage was in short supply. One Arkansas farmer was using grain bags, which are long plastic bags that can be used to contain cereals for a while. The volume of grain shipped on the Mississippi has fallen by half from the average of the past three years, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Yahoo! News/AFP, Oct 23, 2023

The statewide modified burn ban remained in effect, but some parishes have chosen to allow burning again. However, the National Weather Service predicted that ongoing drought and low relative humidity would cause widespread fires across Louisiana. NOLA.com (New Orleans, La.), Oct 22, 2023 The statewide burn ban in Louisiana has been extended by at least a week as fires continued to burn. Outdoor burning was prohibited, but outdoor cooking was permitted. During August, 551 wildfires consumed more than 53,000 acres, although the average acreage burned during the month is 295 acres. Shreveport Times Online (La.), Sept 7, 2023 Louisiana’s previous statewide burn ban, issued Aug. 7, has been replaced with an extended burn ban that prohibited all agricultural burning. The order will remain in effect until rescinded. All private burning was also prohibited also. Attorney General Jeff Landry urged Louisianans to join him in prayer for rain. Lafayette Daily Advertiser (La.), Aug 29, 2023 The State of Louisiana issued a statewide burn ban due to continued heat and drought. The ban will remain in effect until it is rescinded by state officials. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Aug 7, 2023

Fall is the time of year when thousands of migrating birds stop at Cheyenne Bottoms, but there were fewer birds than in previous years because drought has dried up the pools. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Oct 23, 2023

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Otis has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm this evening, with the center on the eastern edge of a relatively new burst of deep convection. The overall satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the shear, recent microwave data indicate that Otis has notable low-level structure, with a ring observed in 37 GHz microwave data. While this can be associated with rapid intensification, none of the models show that intensity change occurring, seemingly due to persistent moderate shear and some dry air in the mid-levels. Still, it makes sense to stay on the high side of the guidance given the structure and very warm SSTs in the path. Thus, the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one, showing Otis near hurricane strength at landfall between 36-48 hours. Otis continues moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its east. This flow will likely cause the storm to move to the north-northwest or northwest through landfall. While most of the models respond by bringing Otis to the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday, the GFS model remains an outlier and keeps Otis weaker and offshore. The GFS solution seems very unlikely given the overall synoptic pattern, so the NHC track forecast will put little weight on its solution, keeping the official forecast about the same as the previous one, on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico on Tuesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 02:37:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 03:34:27 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240237 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 5 25(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 32(51) 12(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 4 45(49) 15(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P MALDONADO 50 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 95W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 the center of Otis was located near 13.6, -97.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.9 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 97.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240227Z - 240530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours. These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening. This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is possible this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635 41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145 44049223 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail will be possible late this evening into the overnight across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastward into Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper-air pattern is forecast tonight over the western half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a large-scale trough rotating across southern CA and Baja California. In the low levels, a warm front will advance north across portions of the Midwest as an elongated warm air conveyor belt extends from the southern Great Plains arcing north-northeast into the Great Lakes. ...IA/MN/WI... Latest surface observations show the northern periphery of richer moisture has moved into western IA/eastern NE. The 00z Omaha raob featured 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. The LLJ is forecast to intensify this evening and focus large-scale ascent mainly in the form of isentropic ascent/warm-air advection in the vicinity of the warm front. Recent time-lagged HRRR model runs indicate isolated to scattered storms developing farther west and near the MO River by late this evening. This activity seems to favor a west-east corridor across northern IA and perhaps far southern MN. Given the favorable lapse rates and deep-layer shear profiles supporting the potential for updraft rotation, have introduced a small 15-percent hail probability (Slight Risk). ...Rio Grande/western part of the Edwards Plateau... The 00z Del Rio raob showed relatively weak lapse rates above the boundary layer, indicative of moisture via decayed TC remnants. Despite the lack of lightning and weak updraft development through early evening, a low probability for a strong updraft could materialize later tonight across this region as southerly 850-mb flow strengthens. However, it seems the risk for severe will be limited by overall weak buoyancy/lapse rates. ..Smith.. 10/24/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Otis, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system by late this week or this weekend while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Continuing drought and the heightened fire risk led the Cowley County Commission to approve a state of local disaster emergency on Oct. 17. The declaration will remain in effect for seven days, unless terminated or renewed before that time. Cowley Courier Traveler (Arkansas City, Kan.), Oct 21, 2023

Students in Caney, Kansas were being offered hand sanitizer instead of hand washing, and trailered restrooms rather than showers as water supplies were expected to be exhausted at the end of 2023. Water fountains were shut off, and students were given bottled water. Porta potties will be brought in for athletic events. Caney schools will be moving to a four-day school week starting Oct. 30 as the area struggles to cope with severely depleted water supplies. FOX23 News (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 20, 2023

Pumpkins did not grow well on a Brookshire farm this year. They often supplement their supply with additional pumpkins from the Floydada area. The 8-acre corn maze was about 3 to 4 feet in height after drought prevented the corn from growing around 7 feet tall as it usually does. KHOU Online (Houston, Texas), Oct 23, 2023

A ban on all outdoor burning took effect for the City of Dickson on the morning of Oct. 23. The fire marshal announced the burn ban after an assessment of ongoing drought conditions, dry vegetation and low humidity determined that the risk to life and property was in the critical stage. DicksonPost (Tenn.), Oct 23, 2023