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No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 25 03:14:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250311Z - 250545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some hail and locally strong wind gusts may accompany an evolving squall line spreading east of the New Mexico/Texas state border, and northeast/east of the Pecos valley through 1-2 AM CDT. It still appears that a severe weather watch will not be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an evolving squall line, generally focused on the leading edge of lower/mid-tropospheric cooling slowly advancing toward the Texas South Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity. Modest strengthening of ambient southerly low-level flow (including to 30+ kt around 850 mb) is contributing to strengthening easterly/southeasterly inflow of more moist air advecting into the high plains. Beneath a remnant plume of steeper lapse rates, associated instability probably will maintain, or perhaps support some further intensification of, the squall line late this evening into the overnight hours. As this occurs, it is possible that channels of strengthening rear inflow may continue to develop, accompanied by potential for occasional locally strong wind gusts reaching the surface. However, based on the output convection allowing guidance, including the HRRR, and latest RAP/NAM forecast soundings, it still appears that peak gusts will remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34510238 34290074 32200141 30800300 31540341 32930273 34510238 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 02:51:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250250 TCDEP3 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage expected. 2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250249 PWSEP3 HURRICANE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 13 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 64 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 496 WTPZ33 KNHC 250248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through for the next day or so, with landfall forecast overnight or early on Wednesday in southern Mexico. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall, and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late tonight and early Wednesday, with extremely destructive winds near the core. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas soon, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. STORM SURGE: A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 293 WTPZ23 KNHC 250247 TCMEP3 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will continue to be possible this evening over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northwestern Mexico with a plume of mid-level moisture located in southwesterly flow over the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume from eastern Arizona eastward into west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across much of west-central Texas. As the storms continue to interact with the northwestern edge of the moderately unstable airmass, the instability combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, will be likely be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Hail, along with a few marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible with the stronger cores over the next few hours. ..Broyles.. 10/25/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242312 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Corrected order of systems

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Otis, located roughly a hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure has formed about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with some
associated shower activity. Upper-level winds could support some
slow development of the system during the next several days while
the low meanders over the southwestern east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a day or two over
the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions should be conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or this weekend while the low moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

The Congaree River has been running about 2.7 feet, which is slightly above last week’s levels when the river was at its lowest in more than a decade. Some stretches of the river were more affected than others, with rocks being exposed, according to the Congaree Riverkeeper. Low water levels have also provided a great opportunity to pick up trash in areas that would normally be underwater. WLTX-TV Columbia 19 (S.C.), Oct 24, 2023

Alabama wildland firefighters have responded to 111 wildfires that charred more than 1,881 acres of forestland in the past week, leading to the reissuing of the statewide Fire Alert. AL.com (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 24, 2023

The Alabama Forestry Commission reissued a Fire Alert for all 67 counties in the state. In the 32 counties mostly north of Interstate 20, burn permits will not be issued. In the 35 counties mostly south of Interstate 20, certified prescribed burn managers may get a one-day burn permit. In the past week, wildland firefighters have responded to 111 wildfires that charred more than 1,881 acres of forestland. AL.com (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 24, 2023

A farm in New Orleans that grows lettuce, arugula and other leafy greens lost thousands of dollars’ worth of lettuce, but still managed to provide customers with leafy greens. Farm operators watered 22 hours a day, but were going to pull that back to 15 or 16 hours a day. One urban farm spent $1,500 during two weeks in September to increase their irrigation capacity. Another urban farm has delayed communicating about this season’s subscription service due to uncertainty of intense heat and drought. Drought will also determine how much local farms can help with food insecurity in New Orleans. The growing season was getting started in the Greater New Orleans area. Local farmers were already enduring crop loss from drought. Verite News (New Orleans, La.), Oct 11, 2023

Farmers were working to get their crops out of the field, but with a second year of drought slowing navigation on the Mississippi River, grain storage was in short supply. One Arkansas farmer was using grain bags, which are long plastic bags that can be used to contain cereals for a while. The volume of grain shipped on the Mississippi has fallen by half from the average of the past three years, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Yahoo! News/AFP, Oct 23, 2023

The statewide modified burn ban remained in effect, but some parishes have chosen to allow burning again. However, the National Weather Service predicted that ongoing drought and low relative humidity would cause widespread fires across Louisiana. NOLA.com (New Orleans, La.), Oct 22, 2023 The statewide burn ban in Louisiana has been extended by at least a week as fires continued to burn. Outdoor burning was prohibited, but outdoor cooking was permitted. During August, 551 wildfires consumed more than 53,000 acres, although the average acreage burned during the month is 295 acres. Shreveport Times Online (La.), Sept 7, 2023 Louisiana’s previous statewide burn ban, issued Aug. 7, has been replaced with an extended burn ban that prohibited all agricultural burning. The order will remain in effect until rescinded. All private burning was also prohibited also. Attorney General Jeff Landry urged Louisianans to join him in prayer for rain. Lafayette Daily Advertiser (La.), Aug 29, 2023 The State of Louisiana issued a statewide burn ban due to continued heat and drought. The ban will remain in effect until it is rescinded by state officials. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Aug 7, 2023

Fall is the time of year when thousands of migrating birds stop at Cheyenne Bottoms, but there were fewer birds than in previous years because drought has dried up the pools. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Oct 23, 2023

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Otis has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm this evening, with the center on the eastern edge of a relatively new burst of deep convection. The overall satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the shear, recent microwave data indicate that Otis has notable low-level structure, with a ring observed in 37 GHz microwave data. While this can be associated with rapid intensification, none of the models show that intensity change occurring, seemingly due to persistent moderate shear and some dry air in the mid-levels. Still, it makes sense to stay on the high side of the guidance given the structure and very warm SSTs in the path. Thus, the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one, showing Otis near hurricane strength at landfall between 36-48 hours. Otis continues moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its east. This flow will likely cause the storm to move to the north-northwest or northwest through landfall. While most of the models respond by bringing Otis to the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday, the GFS model remains an outlier and keeps Otis weaker and offshore. The GFS solution seems very unlikely given the overall synoptic pattern, so the NHC track forecast will put little weight on its solution, keeping the official forecast about the same as the previous one, on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico on Tuesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 02:37:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 03:34:27 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240237 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 5 25(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 32(51) 12(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 4 45(49) 15(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P MALDONADO 50 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 95W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 the center of Otis was located near 13.6, -97.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.