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Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230236 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northern CA. This feature will move southeast along the CA/NV border by early Monday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this upper-level feature. Farther east, a strengthening central Great Plains LLJ will focus a zone of low-level warm-air advection from eastern KS into IA. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight within the aforementioned corridor. Surface high pressure centered over the Upper OH Valley and encompassing much of the East will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 10/23/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norma, located over the southern Gulf of California, and on
Tropical Storm Otis, located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 02:45:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 03:29:00 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220244 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Norma continues to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening. The satellite depiction of the ill-defined low-level center has been difficult to track through the terrain as the system has decoupled from the mid-level center. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be bursts of convection on the northwest side. The land interaction, increasingly southerly shear and dry air is causing Norma to weaken. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates for this advisory range from 55 to 60 kt. Given the current satellite depiction and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 55 kt. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward or 30 degrees at 5 kt. The system will move across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight. Norma should emerge over the southern Gulf of California early Sunday, then move northeastward to east-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Norma is expected to continue weakening due to the aforementioned vertical wind shear, drier air, and land interaction. Once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico, it will quickly dissipate over the high terrain. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast shows a 48 hour remnant low point for continuity, however it is possible that the system could be dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern Baja California peninsula. 3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 23.5N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220243 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 3 15(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 109.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to San Evaristo * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to continue moving across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico by early Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern ID/northern UT and downstream of a larger trough over the eastern Pacific. A few thunderstorms have been observed this evening in association with weak buoyancy/appreciable ascent with the ID/UT disturbance. This activity may linger for a couple of more hours before the zone of stronger ascent moves east into a more dry environment farther east in WY. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions reside over much of the Lower 48 states owing to building surface high pressure over the north-central U.S. and a departing mid-level shortwave trough over New England. ..Smith.. 10/22/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Norma, located over the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, north of Cabo San Lucas.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of shower
and thunderstorm activity. The upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for development of this system during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week. The system is forecast to meander or drift generally
northward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 the center of Norma was located near 23.5, -109.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Hay production in Mississippi was down at least 28% this year, due to drought. Hay growers usually get three cuttings per year, and often four when conditions are right. “This year, you were truly blessed to get maybe two,” according to a Mississippi State University Extension forage agronomist. “A lot of the second cutting was delayed by quite a bit of rain in June and July. We had drought conditions after that, and although growers kept waiting to get a third cutting, the forage never could get going.” WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 20, 2023

Crop yields were “really down” in Pottawatomie County in northeast Kansas. Some farmers were moving cattle off pastures earlier than usual. Hay production was also poor. The area did not receive any significant precipitation from late July to early October, leaving soybean yields less than half of a normal crop. SF| Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 20, 2023

Morton pumpkin growers attested that getting seeds to germinate was a challenge, but rain helped the seeds to sprout and grow. Drought reduced the size of the pumpkins and number of the pumpkins, but the dry conditions also led to very little rot among the pumpkins. Peoria Public Radio (Ill.), Oct 13, 2023