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Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 172016 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts that the area the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP90) has become better organized. Showers and thunderstorms have been consolidating, with curved band features developing around a recently well-defined low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/T3.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Norma with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Norma is in a fairly conducive environment for intensification. Low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper-level diffluence will likely lead to steady to rapid strengthening for the next few days. DTOPS and SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are between 60 to 70 percent for a 55 kt increase over the next 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is near that value, explicitly forecasting RI between 12 to 36 hours. Towards the end of the forecast, increasing vertical wind shear and potential drier air intrusions could cause the system to gradually weaken. The NHC forecast lies just below the HCCA HFIP corrected consensus aids, and it is noted that the HAFS-A/B hurricane regional models show a higher, but still plausible, peak intensity. Norma is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/9 kt. The system is expected to turn more northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed during the next few days around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Towards the end of the forecast period as the system moves toward the Baja peninsula, there is a notable divergence among the model suite. A stronger vortex, as depicted in the GFS/CMC model, would be picked up by an approaching trough from the northwest and move the system northeastward towards the Baja peninsula. However, a weaker vortex would tend to meander south of the peninsula and be missed by the approaching trough, like the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Since the NHC intensity forecast is on the strong side of the guidance, the official track is closer to the right side of the guidance envelope, more similar to the GFS and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.7N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Some Missouri farmers have had better crop yields than expected, despite drought, which has left pastures in rough shape. The hay harvest has been down by about a third. Farmers were culling their cattle and feeding more hay than usual as pastures were not thriving. After an early August rain, pastures turned green and grew, according to the vice president of the Missouri corn Growers Association who also farms in Versailles. He mentioned that every weed with seed in the ground germinated and sprouted due to the rain, making for “some pretty ugly pastures.” Successful Farming Online (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 13, 2023

Drought in August during a very critical time for plant and pod development has really hurt cotton and peanuts in Jackson County. The yield may be down as much as 50%. Lost product makes it hard to cover high input costs. WJHG-TV News Channel 7 (Panama City Beach, Fla.), Oct 12, 2023

Soybean yields in eastern Iowa were extremely variable, and the beans were small, according to an Iowa State University Extension field agronomist. Sioux County Radio (Sioux Center, Iowa), Oct 13, 2023

Some Dickinson County farmers opted to swath and bale their soybeans instead of cutting it for silage because the soybeans were already too dry for making silage. Appraisals for some fields were zero to three bushels per acre. After a second year of drought, farmers were struggling to continue to generate income as they strive to figure out alternate ways to feed livestock and get some kind of value out of their crops. Abilene Reflector-Chronicle (Kan.), Oct 17, 2023

The reservoir for Libby has become very low as the area continued to be in drought. The city was preparing an action plan that would determine responses based on the flow rate of incoming water and the amount of water stored. As of mid-August, the flow of the Fisher River just above where it flows into the Kootenai River north of Libby was about half the usual rate. Western News (Libby, Mont.), Oct 17, 2023

The mayor of Lock Haven issued a Proclamation of State of Emergency as the water demand exceeded the refill rate of the reservoirs. Water customers have been asked to reduce their water use by 20%, but water demand was still too high. In response, the mayor proclaimed the State of Emergency enacting Stage II of the joint Drought Contingency Plan of the city, Suburban Lock Haven Water Authority, and the Central Clinton County Water Filtration Authority. The Express (Lock Haven, Pa.), Oct 13, 2023

Ongoing drought and dropping water levels in the aquifer have led officials in the Village of Versailles to call for mandatory reductions in water use. The community’s water supply wells have been running for longer periods of time. People with sprinkler systems were asked to stop using them immediately. WHIO-TV Dayton (Ohio), Oct 13, 2023

Extreme drought in Cooper County in central Missouri damaged corn stalk quality and led to small ears. A farmer reported that about two-thirds of his corn crop had aflatoxin. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Oct 16, 2023

Dry conditions continued in Central Texas with a dire need for rain. Cooler weather arrived, and while it brought some greening to the pastures and much-needed moisture to the fields, the lack of significant rainfall remained a concern. Mild conditions and cooler temperatures allowed fieldwork to continue. Nighttime temperatures were expected to be in the 50’s, which would cause the warm season grasses to slow their growth. Most cotton acreage, including irrigated, that was not already harvested was abandoned due to lack of rainfall or running out of irrigation water. Stock tank levels were good. Some moderate leaf spot disease pressure showed in Jiggs Bermuda. Wheat planting was delayed as much as possible due to Hessian fly concerns. Few fields were planted to resistant varieties. Small grains were going in and hay was being baled. The pecan harvest began, but yields were very low and quality was only fair. Livestock numbers were still holding with the uptick in green grass. Some culling was taking place before winter. Cattle remained in good body condition, with producers feeding limited hay. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 17, 2023 Central Texas experienced cooler weather with increased humidity. Some scattered storms earlier in the week damaged crops. Despite the recent moisture and cool front, the district remained plagued by persistent drought and above-average temperatures. Stock tanks were low, and creeks were holding stagnant puddles. Approximately 50% of the expected small grain fields had been planted and germinated. The cotton harvest was challenging due to the drought impacting yields and fiber quality. Pecan orchards were plagued by aphids, necessitating spraying due to their high numbers. The Pawnee pecan variety was expected to be ready for harvest soon with poor to fair yields and quality expected. Rangeland conditions improved slightly with greener pastures and hayfields reported as well, though additional rain was needed. In some counties, conditions improved enough for producers to consider another round of hay. Cattle remained in good condition, and supplemental feeding continued with a slight downturn. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Winter wheat planting was in full swing across the Rolling Plains. Most producers were hopeful that the recent moisture would help the wheat come up, but more rain will be needed shortly to keep soil moisture at minimal levels going into the fall. Most dryland cotton was turned into insurance as a loss. Rain was needed for pastures and livestock drinking sources. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 17, 2023 Some scattered showers fell over the Rolling Plains with cooler temperatures. Many farmers started sowing wheat. With the forecast calling for cooler temperatures and possibly more rain, producers were hoping wheat would get off to a good start. More was needed to replenish livestock drinking sources and improve rangeland conditions and soil moisture content going into the fall and winter. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Cooler weather and scattered showers in the Coastal Bend helped with soil moisture retention. Some counties received over 2 inches while others only got two-tenths of an inch. Grain and cotton producers were planning to fertilize soon. Winter pasture planting continued. Some producers were hoping to get a final hay-cutting before the first frost. Some cattle producers were still feeding hay and supplements. Markets were still strong, and many producers took advantage of the high prices by weaning and selling off calves earlier than usual. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 17, 2023 Most of the Coastal Bend received scattered rainfall, but topsoil moisture was still lacking overall. More rain was in the forecast. Fall bedding work was ongoing in crop fields. Timely rain could improve pasture conditions and provide the chance for one last hay cutting for the season. Most livestock found enough green forage to maintain their body condition, but many producers supplemented their diets with hay and protein. Culling cows continued at a higher rate than average, and calves were shipped at lighter weights than usual. Auction market prices remained high. Many livestock producers were trying to hold on due to concerns about replacement costs and expected high calf prices in the future. Low stock pond water levels continued to cause concern for producers and were being monitored. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Burn bans remained in effect for many Mississippi counties, particularly those in the southern half of the state. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 17, 2023 Much of Mississippi remains under a burn ban. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 13, 2023 Gov. Tate Reeves issued a burn ban for 40 counties in the southern part of the state due to extreme drought conditions, which have led to more wildfires than normal. WLOX (Biloxi, Miss.), Aug 19, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 17 00:57:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 17 00:57:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible over parts of northern Washington and vicinity the next several hours. Severe storms are not expected. ...01z Update... A few lightning flashes remain possible across northern WA into far northern ID with ongoing showers/convection. Thunderstorm chances should gradually wane through the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/17/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or
so. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days. Gradual development
of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A strong mid-level trough will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes later this week and amplify into a large trough across the eastern CONUS this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding trough location and phasing, but a strong surface low may be possible near the Northeast this weekend. This should result in some dry and breezy conditions across much of the eastern CONUS later this week and this weekend, but temperatures should be cool, much of this area will see precipitation later this week, and fuels are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Much of the extended period will be dry across the Southwest and southern Plains. Therefore, fuels are expected to dry, and with cooler temperature starting to arrive, finer fuels may start to become dormant in some areas. Therefore, there may be at least somewhat receptive fuels when the next mid-level trough crosses the Southwest early next week. This trough is expected to bring low-elevation rain and mountain snow, but there may be a period in the 12 to 24 hours ahead of trough arrival where there may be some increased fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The power plant in Osceola, Arkansas has not been producing hydropower for the past three weeks because not enough Mississippi River water was passing through the intake pipes. ABC News (New York), Oct 16, 2023