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The 2023 monsoon was drier and hotter than usual, which was hard on Mount Lemmon’s trees. The stressed trees were more susceptible to insects and disease. KGUN 9 Online (Tucson, Ariz.), Oct 17, 2023

The Fire Alert remained in effect for 32 counties in northern Alabama, but was rescinded for 35 counties in the southern part of the state. Burn permits will be available to certified prescribed burn managers in the northern Alabama counties, except for DeKalb, Jackson, and Marshall. The burn restriction was originally issued on Sept. 22 by the Alabama Forestry Commission. The drought, continuing absence of precipitation and high probability of fuel ignition led to the burn restriction. The Blount Countian (Oneonta, Ala.), Oct 18, 2023 The Alabama Forestry Commission issued a statewide Fire Alert on Sept. 22. The alert will remain in effect until the state forester rescinds it. The burning restriction was due to drought, which increases the fire danger. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Sept 23, 2023

Waverly's water emergency remained in effect. Wahoo Newspaper (Neb.), Aug. 2, 2023 and 1011 Now (Lincoln, Neb.), Aug. 9, 2023 A water warning took effect in Waverly on June 3. On June 28, a water emergency began as drought and high water use continued, allowing the level of the towns' wells to fall. Waverly's mayor also proposed an emergency water rate to further lower water use because voluntary restrictions were not saving as much water as desired. 1011 Now (Lincoln, Neb.), June 27, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 18 02:59:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 18 02:59:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 03:22:41 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 180239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3 to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions. However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread in the model tracks. For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 180237 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 38(48) 20(68) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 22(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 23(44) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 10(35) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 15N 105W 34 5 5(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 27 18(45) 6(51) 3(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 50(72) 15(87) 3(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 22(55) 3(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 3(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 34(62) 8(70) 2(72) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 2(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 180237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 ...NORMA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 107.8W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Norma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Norma is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NORMA STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 the center of Norma was located near 13.7, -107.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 180235 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The onset of nocturnal cooling this evening has led to progressive stabilization of the airmass, across both the northern Plains vicinity, and across Arizona/New Mexico -- areas where ongoing or recent thunderstorm activity is observed. Lightning has diminished substantially across the northern Plains area, with no new flashes indicated and CAPE rapidly diminishing. As such, the 10% thunder area is being removed across this region. Across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico, stabilization is ongoing, though weak instability still remains locally. While lightning activity is rapidly diminishing -- and this trend to continue -- will maintain a small thunder area to cover lightning potential over the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Goss.. 10/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The onset of nocturnal cooling this evening has led to progressive stabilization of the airmass, across both the northern Plains vicinity, and across Arizona/New Mexico -- areas where ongoing or recent thunderstorm activity is observed. Lightning has diminished substantially across the northern Plains area, with no new flashes indicated and CAPE rapidly diminishing. As such, the 10% thunder area is being removed across this region. Across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico, stabilization is ongoing, though weak instability still remains locally. While lightning activity is rapidly diminishing -- and this trend to continue -- will maintain a small thunder area to cover lightning potential over the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Goss.. 10/18/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Norma, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Guatemala and Eastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong mid-level trough will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday and amplify into a large trough across the eastern CONUS this weekend. A strong surface low is looking increasingly likely near the Northeast this weekend. This will likely result in dry and breezy conditions across much of the eastern CONUS later this week and this weekend, but the combination of cool temperatures, moist fuels, and precipitation associated with this system should mitigate the fire weather threat. The next week is expected to be dry across the Southwest and southern Plains. Therefore, fuels are expected to dry, and with cooler temperatures starting to arrive, finer fuels may start to become dormant in some areas. Therefore, there may be at least somewhat receptive fuels when the next mid-level trough crosses the Southwest early next week. This trough is expected to bring low-elevation rain and mountain snow, but there may be a period in the 12 to 24 hours ahead of trough arrival where there may be some increased fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

In March 2023, paleontologists found bonebeds in the Navajo Sandstone near Lake Powell that held rare fossils of synapsid reptiles, which are reptiles with mammal-like features that lived at least 180 million years ago. The discovery could shed some light on the connection between mammals and reptiles. AZ Central (Phoenix, Ariz.), Oct 17, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 20:18:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 21:22:56 GMT