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A hay grower in Jefferson County normally gets three cuttings of hay and rolls 1,300 to 1,500 bales, but this year was 20% to 25% below normal. Most hay growers were not getting much of a third cutting of hay because it was so dry that the grass didn’t grow back. Some farmers were already looking for hay to purchase. ABC 33/40 (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 27, 2023

Alabama’s dry spell from August through October have diminished hay supplies, reducing hay availability through the winter. Given the drought and hard ground, it isn’t feasible to plant anything for winter grazing. WBRC-TV Fox 6 Birmingham (Ala.), Oct 27, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 28 03:11:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 28 03:11:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mean mid-level trough will reside over the West and an anticyclone will remain centered over FL. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a weak disturbance moving east-northeast across the IA/WI vicinity. This mid to upper-level feature will continue into MI tonight and into southeast Canada by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over Lower MI extends south-southwest into eastern IL and into central TX. The northern portion of the front will continue sweeping east across the central Great Lakes and parts of the OH Valley. A few thunderstorms will remain possible near the front over the Midwest. Weak buoyancy from the Mid South northward into the Great Lakes (i.e., reference 00z area raobs) will likely limit both storm coverage/intensity through the early morning. ..Smith.. 10/28/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity in the vicinity of the low appears to be located well to
the west of its broad surface center. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to meander
over the far eastern portion of the Eastern Pacific basin for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for slow development of the
low through early next week while it drifts slowly northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

The Gatlinburg fire department stopped issuing burn permits and will not resume issuing them until conditions are not so dry outside. Residents of Gatlinburg were also asked to be careful and not burn materials outdoors. WBIR (Knoxville, Tenn.), Oct 27, 2023

Pastures have gone dry in northwest Georgia, so farmers were feeding their cattle hay, although that is typically not needed until Christmas. Farmers were selling calves early, and calf prices have fallen 20 cents per pound. Cow prices were down by one-third. "The planting of wheat and rye are delayed. Farmers planted seeds, but without rain it can't germinate. They need those to get established before our first frost and freeze of the season occurs. We're running out of time for that, unfortunately," according to Dr. Pam Knox, Director of the UGA Weather Network and Agricultural Climatologist. WXIA TV 11 Online (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct 26, 2023

The August heat and about six weeks of drought in Alabama's Wiregrass region really hurt the peanut and cotton crops. Some farmers have said that this is the worst drought since 1980, with some even saying that it was worse than 1980. The average loss per farmer could amount to about 400 to 500 pounds of peanuts, or about 14% of the profit that they might have earned this year. In a typical year, the state averages about 3,600 pounds of peanuts per farmer. Cotton that was harvested early amounted to about 650 to 750 pounds on average, or a little more than one bale of cotton. Farmers need to make two bales to cover costs. Some farmers do not have enough hay this season. WDHN-TV ABC 18 Dothan (Ala.), Oct 26, 2023

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 27 03:24:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2264 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into extreme northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 270321Z - 270915Z SUMMARY...Occasional instances of heavy snow, including 1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates, are possible tonight across portions of eastern North Dakota into extreme northwestern Minnesota. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough, located over western SD, is poised to overspread the eastern Dakotas over the next few hours, increasing deep-layer ascent and supporting higher precipitation rates across eastern portions of the Northern Plains tonight. At the same time, modest northeasterly 850 mb warm-air advection (to the northwest of a surface low) over the Upper MS Valley will continue to increase low-level lift and moisture ahead of an ongoing snow band across central ND and northern SD. Given near saturation at 700 mb (which is also in proximity to the dendritic growth zone), increased deep-layer ascent tonight will promote moderate to heavy snow. Some of the latest CAM guidance (i.e. deterministic HRRR and HREF- ensemble probabilities) suggests that the best chance for 1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates will be across northeast ND into extreme northwest MN in the 05-09Z (Midnight - 4 AM CDT) time frame. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 45980148 47280106 48260061 48640015 48939928 49049847 49039807 49049703 48759676 48229670 47649706 46719865 46239972 45980045 45980148 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over the GA with large-scale troughing over the Rockies. A lead mid-level shortwave trough over the mid MS Valley this evening will continue northeastward to the southern Great Lakes overnight. A potent disturbance over WY this evening will move into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest tonight. Primary area of limited convective concern this evening is located over southeast TX within a very moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s) in association with a thunderstorm cluster. However, only modest flow will temper overall storm intensity as temperatures slowly cool through the evening. Elsewhere, a cold front will sweep southeast across a large part of the Midwest/central Great Plains tonight. Widely spaced and very isolated, weak thunderstorms are possible over a large part of the Midwest tonight. ..Smith.. 10/27/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves
slowly northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak and elongated area of low pressure located well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development of
this system during the next several days while it meanders over the
southwestern portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The Vicksburg District’s dredge Jadwin has moved 6.2 million cubic yards and has worked 254 days this year, although the normal dredging season lasts 160 days. Seven ships have run aground in Vicksburg this year. The Vicksburg Post (Miss.), Oct 26, 2023

The dry conditions in South Carolina were leading to increased fire activity. Through Oct. 16, the S.C. Forestry Commission had already seen 70% of the number of wildfires that typically occur in October. Those planning any outdoor burning were urged to be responsible and take the necessary precautions. UpstateToday.com (Seneca, S.C.), Oct 25, 2023

The Montgomery Board of County Commissioners declared a state of emergency for Caney. Truckloads of water were being transported from Coffeyville to Caney to supplement the water supply. FOX23 News (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 23, 2023

Drought has been beneficial for a tree service in Potosi as dead trees need to be removed or have dead sections removed. MyLeaderPaper (Festus, Mo.), Oct 25, 2023

The Keowee-Toxaway River Basin activated its low inflow protocol. UpstateToday.com (Seneca, S.C.), Oct 25, 2023