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The Stateline Fire Complex is located Southwest of St. Regis, Montana. The lightning caused fires began July, 7, 2021 and burning in mixed conifer forest. Currently, the complex consists of 12 individual fires: Berge Peak, Broadax, Deception,  Dolly Creek, Fly, Fly Creek, Simmons-Leg, Simmons Ridge, Simmons Ridge, Swimming Bear, Tumbledown, and Wampus Creek. Tumbledown and Dolly Creek Fires are currently the two largest included in the complex. Know Before You Go: The Stateline Complex and incidents to the west and across the region are anticipated to persist into the coming weeks, resulting in area closures, visible smoke, decreased air quality, and impacts to travel and recreational activities. Local community members and visitors to the towns and recreation areas within and around the Idaho Panhandle National Forests are encouraged to stay informed of the fire activity within and around the Stateline Complex. See Idaho Fire Map for more

Following a round of lightning in the afternoon on August 2, four new fires were identified on the south end of the Mt. Hood National Forest. Three of the fires the Janus, Kola, and Ridge Fires were located in the southeast corner of the Bull of the Woods Wilderness in the Janus Butte area. The fourth fire, Round Lake Fire, was located in the east of the Bull of the Woods Wilderness.  And a fifth fire, Ogre Creek Fire, was located on August 3 in the Round Lake area.By August 18, the fires had expanded towards one another and joined to make up the Bull Complex (briefly called the Janus Complex). The fire is currently being managed Northwest Incident Management Team (NWIMT) 13.  A fire camp is located at the Timber Lake Job Corps Center at Ripplebrook to support the firefighters with food, water, supplies, and basic care items.  The Willamette National Forest and Oregon Department of Forestry are both actively engaged with fire managers.  NWIMT 13 is coordinating with...

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 14 13:51:02 UTC 2021.

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 14 13:51:02 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND SEPARATELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today from northeastern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley region, and later this evening across portions of Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... While remaining highly amplified, the pattern aloft will shift this period, primarily related to the longstanding mid/upper-level troughing now centered over the Rockies. An amplifying shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and northern NV -- will move southeastward to the Four Corners vicinity by 00Z. This trough then should pivot eastward across the central/southern Rockies to the adjoining High Plains by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream, a compact cyclone now centered near the northwestern corner of MN will eject roughly northward on a wobbly path toward northern MB by the end of the period. In the southern- stream southwest-flow field southeast of the major trough, a perturbation related to the remnants of Pamela aloft will eject from south TX across the Tennessee Valley and weaken considerably. The surface analysis at 11Z showed a cold front related to the ejecting MN/ND/MB cyclone, extending across portions of eastern WI, northwestern IL and central MO, becoming quasistationary southwestward to a weak frontal-wave low over the TX Panhandle. The front was preceded by a swath of multilayered clouds, precip and some embedded thunderstorms from the southern Lake Michigan area southwestward across MO to south TX. By 00Z, the cold front should reach parts of Lower MI, central IN and southern IL. The boundary should stall today and then move slowly northward as a warm front across parts of southwestern MO and southeastern KS, to a frontal-wave low over south-central KS, then to another frontal-wave low over northwest TX. By 12Z, the KS low should migrate roughly eastward over MO and southern IL, with the trailing boundary again a cold front across southwestern MO, eastern/southern OK, and west-central/southwest TX. ...AR to the lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move northeastward across this region today, both in the existing, slowly eastward-shifting plume and developing anew near its leading edges (where best access to diurnally destabilized boundary-layer air should be). Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible, and a marginal/brief tornado potential is apparent. A corridor of moisture advection/transport will move over the area today, sourced from the mid/upper remnants of Pamela over south TX, as well as rich moisture from the Gulf in low levels. The result should be a weakly capped boundary layer with modest but still somewhat unstable low/middle-level lapse rates, and strong upper/ anvil-level flow. Forecast soundings show effective-shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt, suggesting mainly variably organized multicells, with sporadic/transient supercell potential. Cloud cover will keep diurnal heating from yielding steep low-level lapse rates, but MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range will be supported by the abundant moisture. Elsewhere in the main precip/convective plume from south TX to Lower MI, a strong/damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out; however, with weaker lift and storm coverage south, and weak instability north, the threat is too conditional, isolated and poorly focused for a large categorical severe area. ...OK... Capping may delay substantial thunderstorm initiation and growth until after 00Z -- perhaps even as late as 03-06z. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening into tonight will offer a threat for hail and strong gusts. Marginal, weak tornado potential also is apparent along/ahead of the front, given the strengthening deep shear and available moisture. Large-scale lift should increase over the region this afternoon and tonight with the approach of the main mid/upper trough, reinforced by the digging shortwave perturbation. The returning warm sector has been altered somewhat unfavorably by extensive precip/convection upstream to the south, yet still should contain enough theta-e to support strong/isolated severe potential as it is lifted along and over the surface front. Even with a shallow/near-surface stable layer apparent in forecast soundings, MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg appears possible in the warm sector, along with similar values of elevated MUCAPE within about 50-100 nm behind the boundary. 500-250-mb layer winds will strengthen over this area from late afternoon into tonight, contributing to 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes in support of supercell potential. Limiting factors for the severe threat will include lack of greater low- and middle-level lapse rates tonight, limiting buoyancy and near-surface acceleration potential for both updrafts and downdrafts. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 10/14/2021 Read more

789
ABPZ20 KNHC 141128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 14 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The 681490 Fire is located in Hidalgo County, north of McCook near the intersection of FM 490 and FM 681. The fire is burning in a grass field with no structures threatened. The fire was exhibiting active and wind-driven fire behavior. Twenty fire departments were on scene with heavy equipment and overhead personnel from Texas A&M Forest Service and private heavy equipment utilized to construct containment

The Antelope Fire was first discovered on Sunday, August 1, 2021, in the Antelope Creek drainage on the Goosenest Ranger District of the Klamath National Forest. The Antelope Fire was one of several lightning-caused fires that occurred as a result of thunderstorms passing through the area. Firefighters are implementing a full suppression strategy to keep the fire footprint as small as possible. Crews are currently working on fireline suppression repair to mitigate damages caused during firefighting work.Closures are in effect for the Antelope Fire Area. You can find the current closure information here on Inciweb under the Closures tab above. However, we are currently unable to post the closure maps on Inciweb. If you want the complete information, including maps, on current closures, consider visiting the forest sites: Shasta Trinity National Forest (current closure in effect Sept. 23 – Oct. 22, 2021) - https://www.fs.usda.gov/alerts/stnf/alerts-notices ·        Klamath...

 THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERYThere are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands:-       Fire Suppression Repair-       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER)-       Long-Term Recovery and Restorationo   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts.o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands...

The lightning-caused Woods Creek Fire was discovered on Saturday, July 10th near Boulder Lakes in the Big Belt Mountains. Management was assumed by a Type 3 Incident Management Team (or IMT) from Nevada. The Type 1 Southern Area Red IMT was next, and they had command of the Woods Creek, Balsinger, Ellis and American Fork Fires. On August 12th, Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team 1 assumed command of the Balsinger, American Fork, and Woods Creek Fires. Following was the FDNY Type 2 Incident Management Team which managed the Balsinger and Woods Creek Fires. Lastly, the Balsinger Fire is going back to management by the local Forest Service district, and a Type 3 IMT under the leadership of Martinez is assuming command of the Woods Creek Fire. At 90 % contained as of August 31st, the majority of the uncontained area of the Woods Creek Fire is in steep inaccessible terrain. Likely the fire will not be deemed completely out until a season ending event occurs. Suppression repair work...

The Crown Mountain Fire started within the Forest boundary of the Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest some 16 miles west of Augusta, MT, in the northeast corner of quadrant 26.  Local resources are engaged with full suppression actions maintaining the safety of fire personnel and the public as the number one priority. During the initial three days, gusty winds, unseasonably high temperatures, and dry conditions resulted in active fire behavior and dangerous firefighting conditions for direct attack on the fire.   These circumstances forced air and ground crews to disengage from the fire on 10/5 and 10/6.  The fire is burning within portions of the footprint of the 1988 Canyon Creek Fire. Fire personnel installed point protection on threatened ranches adjacent to the Forest boundary in Smith Creek as well as in the Benchmark corridor to include Double Falls recreational cabins and structures in the Ford Creek area.   Windy conditions have again prevailed from 10/8 through...

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 13 16:00:02 UTC 2021.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 13 16:00:02 UTC 2021.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 14:53:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131452 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased to 55 kt. The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model consensus solutions. Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be advected northeastward into the south-central United States. Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later today and on Thursday for these areas. Key Messages: 1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 784 FOPZ11 KNHC 131447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 106.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa. All other Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Pamela is accelerating toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue at a faster speed prior to dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are occuring within the Tropical Storm Warning area for the next few hours but should end later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin