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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day, reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z Wed. Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough, from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern for thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture will be largely offshore. Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced, convective showers. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day, reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z Wed. Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough, from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern for thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture will be largely offshore. Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced, convective showers. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day, reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z Wed. Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough, from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern for thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture will be largely offshore. Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced, convective showers. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day, reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z Wed. Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough, from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern for thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture will be largely offshore. Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced, convective showers. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day, reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z Wed. Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough, from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern for thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture will be largely offshore. Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced, convective showers. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Tuesday morning. A large area of high pressure will continue to build south across the central and eastern CONUS, with offshore winds increasing across the Gulf of Mexico and coastal Southeast. As such, little to no instability will be present to interact with the large upper trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Shallow convective showers will remain possible in the vicinity of southern Lake Superior to Lake Huron, aided by relatively warm water. However, forecast soundings indicate little potential for lightning. ..Jewell.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Tuesday morning. A large area of high pressure will continue to build south across the central and eastern CONUS, with offshore winds increasing across the Gulf of Mexico and coastal Southeast. As such, little to no instability will be present to interact with the large upper trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Shallow convective showers will remain possible in the vicinity of southern Lake Superior to Lake Huron, aided by relatively warm water. However, forecast soundings indicate little potential for lightning. ..Jewell.. 10/31/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 30 02:53:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 30 02:53:02 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Oct 2023 02:50:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Oct 2023 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 523 WTPZ44 KNHC 300249 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 A small but concentrated convective burst has been persisting near the estimated center of the tropical cyclone tonight. After the prior advisory, we received a fortuitous GPM microwave pass valid at 2252 UTC that suggested the low-level circulation may have tightened up some but was located just south of the deepest convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were up to T2.5/35 kt form TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. The objective estimates from ADT, SATCON, and D-PRINT/MINT are all between 34-36 kt, and thus the latest advisory is set at 35 kt this advisory, upgrading TD19-E to Tropical Storm Pilar. A more pronounced east-northeastward motion appears to be starting, estimated at 060/4 kt. A continued motion to the east-northwest is anticipated over the next 24-48 hours as Pilar's primary steering influences are an equatorial ridge south of the storm providing deep-layer westerlies in addition to a mid- to upper-level cutoff low over the northwestern Caribbean that is interrupting the more typical ridging that would be present to the north over Mexico. The guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but how far east the tropical storm gets in the next 48 h remains uncertain, with the latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs far enough east to affect the Gulf of Fonseca with tropical storm conditions. For this reason, the tropical storm watch has been extended eastward to portions of the Pacific coast of Honduras and Nicaragua this advisory. On Tuesday, Pilar is expected to stall and move very slowly as low to mid-level ridging attempts to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone and a strong cold front induces a significant gap wind flow event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. By the middle of this week, the enhanced low-level flow associated with the ridge and gap winds are forecast to push Pilar away from Central America to the west-southwest as a weakening tropical storm. As discussed previously, the confidence of when or how sharp this turn away from Central America will be is low given the inconsistent model guidance over the past day. The NHC track this cycle is just a bit closer to the coast and a touch east of the prior track, but is roughly in between the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. A small core may be starting to take shape given the earlier microwave imagery, and the persistent area of convection that Pilar has been maintaining over the last 3-6 hours near the estimated center. Most of the guidance maintains this small core structure with intensification while the storm remains embedded in moderate (15-20 kt) easterly vertical wind shear but is over warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures in a moist mid-level air environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast still takes Pilar to near hurricane intensity in 36 h, on the higher end of the intensity guidance but not far off the hurricane-regional guidance solutions. Afterwards, it seems likely a combination of the dry mid-latitude gap-wind flow in addition to possible cool upwelling of the shallow warm waters due to slow motion near the coast of Central America could begin a weakening trend. If the latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs end up being correct, land interaction could also result in weakening. The intensity forecast beyond 48 h is a little lower than the prior advisory, as it is looking more likely that a combination of moderate shear and additional dry stable air could prevent the storm from re-intensifying even after it begins to move back over warmer ocean waters away from its own cold wake. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, through Wednesday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into Wednesday along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings could be needed tomorrow. 3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, beginning on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 11.2N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 11.6N 90.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 12.0N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.0N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 11.2N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 9.9N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 9.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) P SAN JOSE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 90W 34 2 14(16) 6(22) 2(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) 10N 90W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO CUTUCO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO CUTUCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AMAPALA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) AMAPALA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHOLUTECA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO BLANCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM PILAR... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEK AS PILAR MOVES CLOSER TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 92.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Honduras and Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca * Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a continued east-northeastward motion is anticipated for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though the core of the system is forecast to stay offshore. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and around much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm Watch area early on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin