Aggregator

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.4, -115.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 223 WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 031444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031444 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h. The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to south Texas. Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 94.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 23.6, -94.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 626 WTNT65 KNHC 031356 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1000 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 140 mph - Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves - Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much of today. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are now occuring along the Treasure Coast of Florida. A Weatherflow station at Melbourne Beach Barrier Island Sanctuary recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan

...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE... ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Dorian was located near 27.1, -78.6 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 900 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031255 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 900 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 140 mph - Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves - Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much of today. SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan

...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Dorian was located near 27.1, -78.5 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected mainly during the late afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. ...Great Lakes and Midwest... Expansive stratiform and convective swaths are ongoing from northern Lower MI to eastern WI and northern IL. The leading convection is associated with an eastward-moving MCV, while upstream activity is being forced by robust low-level warm advection ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough over northern MN. The cluster over far northern IL may pose an isolated severe threat through midday as it spreads towards northern IN. Latest guidance is largely underestimating the extent of ongoing convection (especially the 06Z NAM). The 06Z ESRL-HRRR and GFS appear closer to reality compared with the 00Z HREF members/ECMWF and 06Z HRRR. This yields continued uncertainty in how the convective scenario will play out later this afternoon and evening. As such, while potential exists for a significant tornado, an upgrade to a category 3-Enhanced Slight Risk has been deferred. Seasonably rich low-level moisture is prevalent upstream of the warm-advection driven convection across IA/southern MN/southwest WI, characterized by near 70 surface dew points. This rich moisture will advect eastward in the wake of this morning activity beneath an elevated mixed layer. Boundary-layer heating will probably be of more limited duration with northeast extent across Lower MI, but will be greater with southwest extent into IL. A strongly unstable air mass should develop near and southwest of Lake Michigan with greater uncertainty in the degree of buoyancy farther northeast. At least isolated, mid to late afternoon convective redevelopment will probably occur with approach of a cold front from western Lower MI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear will be strongest northeast compared to more veered flow and less enlargement to hodographs with southwest extent. With some indications of veer-back-veer wind profiles, convective mode may tend to evolve into a few clusters with embedded supercell structures. The severe threat should wane overnight as the primary shortwave trough becomes increasingly separated from the lingering buoyancy plume over the Midwest. ...East-central/northeast FL Coast... Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move northward and remain offshore. This will place most of the FL Atlantic Coast in the unfavorable northwest quadrant for tornadoes. Nevertheless, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph combined with weak instability might support a couple rotating cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected mainly during the late afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. ...Great Lakes and Midwest... Expansive stratiform and convective swaths are ongoing from northern Lower MI to eastern WI and northern IL. The leading convection is associated with an eastward-moving MCV, while upstream activity is being forced by robust low-level warm advection ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough over northern MN. The cluster over far northern IL may pose an isolated severe threat through midday as it spreads towards northern IN. Latest guidance is largely underestimating the extent of ongoing convection (especially the 06Z NAM). The 06Z ESRL-HRRR and GFS appear closer to reality compared with the 00Z HREF members/ECMWF and 06Z HRRR. This yields continued uncertainty in how the convective scenario will play out later this afternoon and evening. As such, while potential exists for a significant tornado, an upgrade to a category 3-Enhanced Slight Risk has been deferred. Seasonably rich low-level moisture is prevalent upstream of the warm-advection driven convection across IA/southern MN/southwest WI, characterized by near 70 surface dew points. This rich moisture will advect eastward in the wake of this morning activity beneath an elevated mixed layer. Boundary-layer heating will probably be of more limited duration with northeast extent across Lower MI, but will be greater with southwest extent into IL. A strongly unstable air mass should develop near and southwest of Lake Michigan with greater uncertainty in the degree of buoyancy farther northeast. At least isolated, mid to late afternoon convective redevelopment will probably occur with approach of a cold front from western Lower MI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear will be strongest northeast compared to more veered flow and less enlargement to hodographs with southwest extent. With some indications of veer-back-veer wind profiles, convective mode may tend to evolve into a few clusters with embedded supercell structures. The severe threat should wane overnight as the primary shortwave trough becomes increasingly separated from the lingering buoyancy plume over the Midwest. ...East-central/northeast FL Coast... Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move northward and remain offshore. This will place most of the FL Atlantic Coast in the unfavorable northwest quadrant for tornadoes. Nevertheless, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph combined with weak instability might support a couple rotating cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected mainly during the late afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. ...Great Lakes and Midwest... Expansive stratiform and convective swaths are ongoing from northern Lower MI to eastern WI and northern IL. The leading convection is associated with an eastward-moving MCV, while upstream activity is being forced by robust low-level warm advection ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough over northern MN. The cluster over far northern IL may pose an isolated severe threat through midday as it spreads towards northern IN. Latest guidance is largely underestimating the extent of ongoing convection (especially the 06Z NAM). The 06Z ESRL-HRRR and GFS appear closer to reality compared with the 00Z HREF members/ECMWF and 06Z HRRR. This yields continued uncertainty in how the convective scenario will play out later this afternoon and evening. As such, while potential exists for a significant tornado, an upgrade to a category 3-Enhanced Slight Risk has been deferred. Seasonably rich low-level moisture is prevalent upstream of the warm-advection driven convection across IA/southern MN/southwest WI, characterized by near 70 surface dew points. This rich moisture will advect eastward in the wake of this morning activity beneath an elevated mixed layer. Boundary-layer heating will probably be of more limited duration with northeast extent across Lower MI, but will be greater with southwest extent into IL. A strongly unstable air mass should develop near and southwest of Lake Michigan with greater uncertainty in the degree of buoyancy farther northeast. At least isolated, mid to late afternoon convective redevelopment will probably occur with approach of a cold front from western Lower MI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear will be strongest northeast compared to more veered flow and less enlargement to hodographs with southwest extent. With some indications of veer-back-veer wind profiles, convective mode may tend to evolve into a few clusters with embedded supercell structures. The severe threat should wane overnight as the primary shortwave trough becomes increasingly separated from the lingering buoyancy plume over the Midwest. ...East-central/northeast FL Coast... Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move northward and remain offshore. This will place most of the FL Atlantic Coast in the unfavorable northwest quadrant for tornadoes. Nevertheless, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph combined with weak instability might support a couple rotating cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2019 Read more

981
ABNT20 KNHC 031152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located just north of Grand Bahama Island.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better defined. The
associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of
days while the system moves northward, and a tropical depression
could form by Thursday. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of
days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031150 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD... ...SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.4W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana FL to Savannah River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL * Savannah River to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is beginning to move northwestward at about 1 mph (2 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft Lantana FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line...3 to 5 ft North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 11:33:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 09:31:41 GMT

Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031132 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 94.6W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. This motion could bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing in organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 23.5, -94.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake