Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more