Aggregator

730
ABPZ20 KNHC 041156
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure has
formed in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific about
1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has quickly become
better organized overnight and a tropical depression could be
forming. If recent development trends continue, advisories could
be initiated on this system later today or tonight. The system will
be moving into the Central Pacific basin this morning. Future
information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 11:55:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:25:02 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 417 WTNT35 KNHC 041154 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 79.6W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Savannah River to Surf City NC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The NOAA automated station at St. Augustine Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast. Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 11:44:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:31:48 GMT

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 97.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 1005 MI...160 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 97.2 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area today. Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to 12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 23.5, -97.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located about 100 miles east of the coast of northeast
Florida, on Tropical Storm Fernand, located a short distance east of
the coast of northeastern Mexico, and on newly formed Tropical Storm
Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A small area of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda. Afterward, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge later today over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic west of Africa. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become mostly conducive for development late this
week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 532 WTNT65 KNHC 041056 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 79.5W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Dorian was located near 29.5, -79.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 10:30:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:45:15 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 4 71(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 1 19(20) 29(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind radii for this advisory. The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous 12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 10:28:34 GMT

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:26:07 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 08:55:49 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 040855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 40(56) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 48(66) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 36(61) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 11(54) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 23(69) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 6(62) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 3(51) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) X(41) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 34(41) X(41) X(41) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 14(33) X(33) X(33) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 46(90) X(90) X(90) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 57(65) X(65) X(65) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) X(38) X(38) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 23(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 46(54) 28(82) X(82) X(82) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) X(43) X(43) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 51(69) 23(92) X(92) X(92) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 39(68) X(68) X(68) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) 50(72) 20(92) X(92) X(92) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 34(67) X(67) X(67) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) X(39) X(39) SURF CITY NC 34 2 3( 5) 12(17) 59(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 13(48) X(48) X(48) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 55(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 20(23) 40(63) 31(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 58(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) FLORENCE SC 34 2 5( 7) 27(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 6( 8) 42(50) 35(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 34(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 35(39) 40(79) 14(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) 34(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 28(31) 47(78) 13(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) 21(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 58(62) 29(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 9( 9) 39(48) 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 8 70(78) 11(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 19(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 65(78) 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAVANNAH GA 50 1 18(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 66 17(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) KINGS BAY GA 50 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 17(22) 4(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MAYPORT NS FL 50 12 13(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 54 13(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JACKSONVILLE 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH