Aggregator

...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 20.6, -111.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 167 WTPZ21 KNHC 031433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 3 14:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

687
ABPZ20 KNHC 031132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific
basin, a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development of this system is expected during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:22:06 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period. At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period. At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period. At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period. At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week. Read more