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Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 018 WTPZ31 KNHC 030240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 110.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.2 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake

...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.8, -110.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 184 WTPZ21 KNHC 030239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains... Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained. See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before convection eventually weakens later this evening. ...Great Basin/Southwest... Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains... Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained. See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before convection eventually weakens later this evening. ...Great Basin/Southwest... Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains... Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained. See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before convection eventually weakens later this evening. ...Great Basin/Southwest... Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains... Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained. See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before convection eventually weakens later this evening. ...Great Basin/Southwest... Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains... Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained. See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before convection eventually weakens later this evening. ...Great Basin/Southwest... Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1544 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central and northeast Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030047Z - 030215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is still being monitored for an increase in severe-gust/outflow potential. The need for a watch is still uncertain. DISCUSSION...A cluster of disorganized convection with transient/embedded deeper cores is evolving northeast of Lewistown MT, where a 36 kt gust was recently measured. As this activity (and additional storms farther east along a north/south-oriented wind shift) continue east-northeastward, very steep low-level lapse rates may promote sporadic severe outflow winds. However, the combination of modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the convection northeast of Lewistown casts uncertainty on the potential for an organized cluster to evolve. An elongated mid/upper-level hodograph sampled by the GGW VWP may favor some convective organization with the storms immediately east of Glasgow MT, though limited residence time in the weakly unstable air mass also limits confidence in severe coverage/potential. Overall, it is still unclear if the scenario will warrant a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47100634 46840747 46900891 47240951 47670971 48130960 48700923 49080852 49080535 48580510 47620559 47100634 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 1543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022250Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are initiating along a weak low-level moisture gradient and wind shift extending southeastward from southeast MN into far southwest WI -- aided by a midlevel speed max approaching the area (evident in water-vapor imagery). An elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) and sufficient surface-based instability along this corridor may promote brief/transient convective organization over the next few hours. Given an expected cellular mode amid the elongated/straight hodograph and modestly steep lapse rates, isolated instances of marginally severe hail will be possible (along with locally strong gusts). The overall threat is expected to remain too localized and transient for a watch. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43439360 43879412 44359423 44839385 44879299 44649231 43539014 42878994 42359041 42469139 43439360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 2 23:59:01 UTC 2025.

469
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

MD 1542 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Nevada...western Utah and far northwest Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022145Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for sporadic severe gusts through this evening. Weak buoyancy and limited organization potential suggest a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed scattered high-base showers and thunderstorms ongoing over much of the southern Great Basin. Aided by ascent from broad western US troughing and diurnal heating, additional convective development appears likely through this evening. Weak buoyancy above a deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporation potential in thunderstorm downdrafts, with MLCL heights greater than 2000m AGL. In combination with weak vertical shear, a pulse multicellular mode is favored, with the stronger storm clusters capable of sporadic severe gusts. Given the limited potential for storm organization, a more widespread severe risk appears unlikely. Convection will gradually diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to continue overnight with occasional potential for strong downdrafts given the dry low-level air mass. A WW is unlikely given the limited nature of the threat. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 36681684 37901646 39401587 40131647 40761605 40701390 39751259 38481244 37771248 37081278 36341324 35791396 35671512 35761573 36681684 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...southern/central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022042Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Erratic and isolated severe gusts will remain possible across a broad portion of southern to central Montana over the next few hours. Whether sufficient coverage/organization potential will exist for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been gradually increasing across the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT. Despite meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear, one initial cell produced a measured severe gust of 64 kts at KDLN. This activity is expected to spread northward, mainly across the central portion of MT, into early evening where the downstream airmass is slightly more unstable. With 40-50 F surface temperature-dew point spreads, sporadic severe gusts are the expected hazard. Coverage of both convection and organizational potential is uncertain. Short-term guidance suggest severe gust potential may remain erratic with relatively disorganized convection. It is possible that a loosely organized cluster might evolve to the north-northeast at some point during the early evening, which would raise the potential of downstream watch issuance. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 48390825 47450806 45610827 45120967 44811229 45111259 46041309 46981319 47801197 48501044 48390825 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more