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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period. At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie continues to rapidly weaken, with a recent ASCAT pass indicating instrument derived winds of only 40 to 45 kt north of the center. The cyclone’s structure has further degraded, with deep convection absent and the low-level circulation now fully exposed. Both subjective and objective satellite current intensity estimates reflect this weakening trend, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of these data. The initial motion is 300/8 kt. Flossie continues to move along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge situated over northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. The updated forecast track is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. Continued weakening is anticipated as the system moves over cooler waters and remains embedded in a dry and stable environment. With no deep convection, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 190 WTPZ31 KNHC 030833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 111.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 20.1, -111.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 485 WTPZ21 KNHC 030832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more