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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1546 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031407Z - 031600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms appear increasingly likely across parts of New England into this afternoon. One or two Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be issued before midday as storms intensify eastward. DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper 70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario, it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts producing damaging winds seems probable. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 46086650 44986752 43766937 42547080 42357142 42407258 42577335 43197332 43997237 44717200 45007240 45337216 46427037 46976937 47356811 47126737 46086650 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-031640- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-031640- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 15:22:15 GMT

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0483 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 557 WTPZ41 KNHC 031434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no associated convection as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures to the southwest of Baja California Sur. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low tonight. The system should dissipate completely by 60 h. The initial motion is 300/9. A generally northwestward to west-northwestward should continue to the next 36 h or so, followed by a gradual bend more toward the west-northwest. The new track forecast is close to the previous forecast and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 756 FOPZ11 KNHC 031433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 597 WTPZ31 KNHC 031433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 111.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 111.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven