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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more