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WW 485 SEVERE TSTM ND 040005Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 705 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...As a cap weakens, storms should further develop and intensify this evening, including initially across western North Dakota, as well as potentially near the International Border. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible within a moist and very unstable environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Dickinson ND to 45 miles east of Devils Lake ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 484... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

MD 1557 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485... Valid 040428Z - 040600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk may spread/develop into parts of northeastern ND over the next few hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that has become outflow dominant in southern Manitoba is tracking slowly east-southeastward toward north-central/northeast ND. Ahead of these storms, additional elevated convection is developing at the nose of a strengthening 30-40 kt low-level jet. Over the next few hours, the convective cluster and downstream development may merge and track east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of an instability gradient extending from northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Strong low-level warm advection accompanying the low-level jet and around 40-50 kt of effective shear may support a loosely organized cluster capable of producing damaging winds and sporadic large hail. Overall convective evolution remains uncertain, though a spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485 in northeastern ND and perhaps extreme northwest MN may become necessary. ..Weinman.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48189851 48630015 48740099 48940122 49140107 49189993 49049688 48849656 48129657 47969712 48189851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central Wisconsin into far eastern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040239Z - 040445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may accompany the stronger storms that evolve over the upper Midwest tonight. DISCUSSION...Within a belt of around 30-kt midlevel northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of a large-scale ridge, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are developing within a plume of weak low-level warm advection focused across parts of western WI -- potentially aided by a remnant MCV approaching the region as well. This activity is developing along the eastern periphery of a strongly unstable air mass with around 30 kt of effective shear (sampled by MPX 00Z sounding). This will promote isolated severe hail and possibly locally damaging gusts with any stronger cores that evolve tonight. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44179236 43769175 43509118 43359032 43558977 44018950 44478976 45449086 45749156 45799206 45599274 45049291 44709289 44179236 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 ..WEINMAN..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-031-033-037-041-043- 049-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-103-040540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 ..WEINMAN..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-031-033-037-041-043- 049-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-103-040540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 ..WEINMAN..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-031-033-037-041-043- 049-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-103-040440- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1555 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485... Valid 040210Z - 040345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and locally severe gusts remain possible with evolving thunderstorms over western North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms that initiated along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface wind shift in western ND have shown transient intensification as they track slowly eastward off the boundary. Ahead of these storms, very steep midlevel lapse rates (accompanying an EML) atop lower 70s dewpoints are contributing to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. While low-level inhibition at the base of the EML and weak large-scale forcing for ascent do cast some uncertainty on storm maintenance/longevity (especially in the near-term), the strong-extreme buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor supercells with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase ahead of an approaching midlevel trough currently moving into eastern MT, along with low-level warm advection along the western periphery of a strengthening low-level jet. This should promote additional strong-severe thunderstorms in the next few hours. ..Weinman.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48130265 48330232 48340178 48040140 47360146 46660172 46110232 46050302 46110341 46350359 47140352 48130265 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more