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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA RI CW 031730Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase this afternoon across the region amid strengthening large-scale ascent and airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy coupled with moderate vertical shear will support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Large hail will be the primary risk with the early-stage cellular development while strong winds will be more likely once storms transition towards a more linear mode. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Williamsport PA to 25 miles east of New Bedford MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF VERMONT AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of Vermont and upstate New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032238Z - 040015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this evening across parts of Vermont and upstate New York with storms ahead of a cold front. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed a corridor of instability to develop ahead of a cold front across parts of Vermont and upstate New York, and a few storms have developed along this front. VAD wind profiles from KCXX indicate somewhat weak deep-layer shear, leading to multicell clusters and line segments observed on radar. Regional RAP profiles indicate nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 2 km AGL. This, when combined with the modest low-level flow, may produce a threat for damaging gusts this evening, particularly with clusters of convection. However, the coverage is expected to be sparse, and the threat is expected to wane with the loss of sunlight. Therefore, a watch is not anticipated with this activity. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43817337 43407449 43337576 43677625 44057619 44217599 44477488 44937354 45017317 45067281 45027242 44637235 44247264 44047288 43817337 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA RI CW 031730Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase this afternoon across the region amid strengthening large-scale ascent and airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy coupled with moderate vertical shear will support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Large hail will be the primary risk with the early-stage cellular development while strong winds will be more likely once storms transition towards a more linear mode. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Williamsport PA to 25 miles east of New Bedford MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more