Aggregator

857
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CXY TO 35 SW AVP TO 15 N EWR TO 25 WNW BDR TO 15 S CON. ..WEINMAN..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-032340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-027-032340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-039-041-032340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 3 22:36:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota...far eastern Montana...northeast Wyoming...and northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032035Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms possible this afternoon/evening, posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Clear skies throughout the afternoon have allowed surface temperatures to rise upper 80s and low 90s F amid a relatively moist low-level airmass, characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 50s in northeast Wyoming/southeast Montana to the mid/upper 60s and a few 70 F obs across North Dakota. This is resulting in a west-east instability gradient ranging from 500-3000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows an area of deepening convection forming in northeast Wyoming, likely in association with an approaching mid-level trough. The expectation is for the aforementioned convection to mature and become more widespread, as forcing for ascent continues to overspread the region. Scattered storms are expected, though intensity may be somewhat limited in the short-term due to relatively weaker instability/shear in proximity. As storms move northeast with time, they should encounter greater instability while deep-layer shear increases with the approaching wave. Meanwhile, isolated storm development is possible across western/central North Dakota. Forecast soundings/obs indicate convective temperatures in the mid-90s F, which is supported by some areas of deepening convection across the state. Initial storms will likely be cellular in nature, posing a threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, storms by grow upscale, posing more of a threat for damaging winds. Given this severe storm potential, watch issuance is possible later this afternoon/evening for parts of the region. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 44100432 43730551 43880599 45110588 46680514 48290388 48800218 48950134 48240068 47060061 45960143 45420189 45110230 44100432 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... A mid-level short wave trough will lift into the Montana and northern High Plains through Day 3/Saturday. Widespread wetting rains are expected across much of the Northern Rockies while lingering southwest flow will present a fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV/southwestern UT. Elevated mid-level winds along with a well-mixed boundary layer will support breezy and dry conditions for the southern Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday, where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday... A building Four Corners high along with a quasi-stationary mid-level low offshore of northern CA will support a persistent dry, southwest flow pattern over the Southwestern U.S. and Great Basin Region from Day 4-7/Sunday-Wednesday. A primary impact of the building mid-level ridge will be increasing heat across the Western U.S., promoting drying of fuels across the region while southwest aloft keeps monsoon moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms confined to the Continental Divide and southern Arizona. Ensemble guidance suggests a slight shift westward of the Four Corners high towards the lower Colorado River basin midweek, potentially inviting a push of monsoon moisture into Southern California and Great Basin Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high enough to preclude critical probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484... Valid 031957Z - 032200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread east-southeast through early evening. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard, with isolated large hail possible as well. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that initially formed in southwest NY has produced a swath of damaging winds (with measured gusts of 49-53 kts in the BGM vicinity) and large hail, reported up to golf-ball size thus far. Additional updrafts have formed in both its forward and trailing flank, which should help sustain an organized cluster to the east-southeast over the next few hours with cold pool temperatures dipping into the upper 50s. With upper 80s to around 90 F temperatures from the Lower Hudson Valley east and south, a swath of damaging winds appears probable through early evening. Other multicell clusters will be capable of mainly isolated strong gusts as they impinge on the warmer boundary layer across the coastal plain. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 42187463 42407409 42507354 42387219 41987129 41637128 41107197 40677341 40437402 40367451 40527529 40817563 41117578 41457584 41647508 42187463 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CXY TO 10 SE IPT TO 25 ESE EEN. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-032240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more