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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031657Z - 031900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more probable. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209 41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745 42777681 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-031940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-031940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-031940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-031940- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-031940- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1547 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 031617Z - 031815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...Primary severe potential, from isolated to scattered damaging winds, will be largely focused across central/eastern Maine and far southeast New Hampshire. Potential exists for a separate area of storms over the Champlain Valley to intensify downstream later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken thin band of quasi-linear convection is ongoing from northern ME to the NH/MA border area. The recent consolidation into linear structures should modulate the earlier large hail threat. But this will support an increasing damaging wind risk as storms impinge on a warm/unstable boundary layer downstream. Low to mid 80s surface temperatures combined with dew points holding in the low to mid 60s is yielding modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Strong gusts will be possible as this initial round spreads off the coast/into NB. Farther west, stabilization in the wake of this leading convection will yield a lull in severe potential. But the primary lobe of ascent supporting convection across the Champlain Valley into QC should spread across at least northern VT/NH into western ME through late afternoon. There should be an adequate gap of destabilization between the two regimes for a marginal severe threat, although there is below-average confidence on whether sufficient recovery will occur for a scattered damaging wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... LAT...LON 45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705 42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324 44017400 44487354 45007271 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0484 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more