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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...20z Updates... Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New York where severe storms are crossing the international border from Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy, moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode) and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear modes). This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so the potential exists for additional development across NY this afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts possible with these storms as well. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening. This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z. Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND over time. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible. ...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest... Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible. A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail, particularly with initial development. Storms should continue throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk. Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ELM TO 15 W ALB. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-032040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-032040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-032040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BML TO 45 ESE HUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-027-029-031- 032040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-032040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out. To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late. For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more