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MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Central Minnesota...far northeast Iowa...and central/western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031918Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms possible posing a threat for severe wind/hail possible this afternoon/evening DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a remnant MCV traversing southern portions of North Dakota. Ahead of this feature, weak convection has persisted throughout the morning into the early afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows a destabilizing environment downstream of this ongoing activity, with MLCAPE values now exceeding 15000-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite supports this notion, particularly along a northwest to southeast oriented warm/moist axis (weak warm front) where dew point temperatures are nearing 65-70 F south of the boundary. The aforementioned MCV is aiding in enhancement of deep-layer shear, ranging from 30-40 kt, across the region. Continued insolation across the region should support further destabilization, which may lead to a re-intensification of the ongoing activity entering west-central Minnesota where MLCIN is relatively lower. Additional storm formation is also possible downstream (as supported by the latest HRRR runs) by late afternoon/evening. Isolated instances of severe wind/hail are possible should this occur. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time, though convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF... ABR... LAT...LON 46519273 45959167 45089023 44018887 42978895 42398954 42199033 41989141 42179225 42789314 43709370 44689470 44919517 45119574 45419624 46019657 46729658 47309626 47369549 47129445 46519273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:21:35 GMT

MD 1551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR SOUTHERN ME AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 1551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...southern ME and NH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 031920Z - 032115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...Limited threat for strong storms is anticipated into early evening within WW 483, mainly across NH and southern ME. DISCUSSION...Overall strong to severe storm activity has diminished into peak heating. Outflow from leading convection outpaced deeper convective cores and has mitigated a more substantial damaging wind threat. Locally strong gusts remain possible across the remainder of Downeast ME that has yet to overturn. The upstream round of convection from southern VT to far western ME has struggled to appreciably intensify despite ongoing airmass recovery to its south over most of NH into far southern ME. It is plausible that convection may still increase along this outflow with a risk of locally strong gusts. Farther north in ME, surface temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s appear unlikely to support an increased damaging wind threat prior to 22Z watch expiration. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45616740 45126707 44606763 43976995 43197179 43297224 43587221 44297156 45447058 45706917 45616740 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032030 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie has lacked organized deep convection for more than 12 hours and no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is now considered a post-tropical low, and this is the last NHC advisory. A 1705 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to around 35 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving northwestward at 9 kt. This general motion, within the low-level flow, is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A combination of cool waters and dry air should lead to the dissipation of the post-tropical low this weekend. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032029 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032029 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FLOSSIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032029 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 21.2, -112.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE UNV TO 35 SSW BGM TO 15 E ALB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-032140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-032140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-032140- Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LEB TO 55 SSW BHB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-032140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM ME NH 031440Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Maine New Hampshire * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1040 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region over the next few hours, with multiple rounds of storms possible. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large hail with the initial more discrete development. With time, a trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated. As this occurs, the primary hazard will transition from large hail to damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Houlton ME to 35 miles southwest of Portsmouth NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1549 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NY AND NORTHWEST VT
Mesoscale Discussion 1549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...northern NY and northwest VT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031820Z - 032015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The final round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms should spread from the Saint Lawrence Valley across northern New York through the rest of the afternoon. Marginal storm intensity/coverage may mitigate Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along the synoptic cold front arcing southwestward across far eastern ON. Despite earlier convection across northern NY, robust insolation in its wake is supporting airmass recovery ahead of this last round of convection. Surface temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are becoming common downstream of Lake ON and recovery back through the 70s may occur across the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley. Despite weak low-level westerlies ahead of the front, strong deep-layer speed shear per the TYX VWP data should support a few cells with mid-level rotation as they cross into northern NY. Guidance suggests that the attendant mid-level jetlet will shift south into early evening. This, combined with uncertainty over the degree of boundary-layer recovery, suggests the overall damaging wind and hail threats may remain marginal/isolated. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 45107263 43907311 43667358 43777534 44057617 44537600 45077492 45107263 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. will introduce stronger mid-level winds as well as introducing an increasingly dry air mass into the region Friday. Development a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across much of Nevada along with sustained southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support a critical fire weather threat across southeastern NV and southwestern UT Friday afternoon. Recent observed rainfall across this area has been minimal, allowing fuels to largely remain receptive to wildfire spread. An elevated fire weather threat remains over much of western and northern Nevada. ...Southeast Oregon... The aforementioned mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southeastern OR and far northeastern CA/far northwestern NV. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southeastern Oregon early Friday owing to a more supportive convective environment from the mid-level trough and associated jet. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon amid an increase in daytime destabilization. Recent rainfall across southeast Oregon has been limited allowing at least some fuels to remain receptive to potential lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more