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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE UP/LP OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP/LP of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022028Z - 022200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds gusts/hail possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a small cluster of cells over portions of northeast Wisconsin, and a few isolated cells over the LP of Michigan, traversing southeast. These storms initiated during the heating of the day amid a weakly capped environment. Persistent downstream heating, where dew point temperatures are in the low 60s F, is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and low level lapse rates near 9 C/km. The weak instability combined with marginal deep-layer shear (approaching 25-35 kt) should limit storm organization. That said, some potential exists for a localized damaging wind gust or severe hail with the strongest cells throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 45918727 45928808 45558936 45098997 44308987 43708952 43438906 43128768 42898593 42768480 42698390 42968291 43888303 44338350 45078356 45378498 45878694 45838684 45918727 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 21:21:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 739 FOPZ11 KNHC 022032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 031 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming asymmetric. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in the 80-90 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 305/8 kt. Flossie is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low thereafter. The system is forecast to dissipate completely by 96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 406 WTPZ31 KNHC 022032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.5, -109.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 975 WTPZ21 KNHC 022031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more