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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...20z Update... There are no changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more