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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

The cotton crop near Lenorah in Martin County was weeks behind for lack of rain. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), July 2, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:21:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021434 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 73 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 64 23 17(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 34 20 8(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.0, -109.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 075 WTPZ21 KNHC 021433 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 09:21:48 GMT