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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

273
ABPZ20 KNHC 020522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development, potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 03:22:10 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 132 WTPZ41 KNHC 020252 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on geostationary satellite imagery. An SSMIS microwave satellite image from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded. Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107 kts. The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend of these estimates. Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive environmental conditions. Thereafter, global models suggest drier air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the circulation on Wednesday. These conditions should coincide with the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler waters which should hasten weakening. Flossie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Flossie should continue moving west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next few days. As the system becomes more shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow. Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 206 FOPZ11 KNHC 020252 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 8 87(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 110W 50 1 68(69) 15(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 64 X 38(38) 14(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 29(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 043 WTPZ31 KNHC 020252 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 18.2, -107.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 062 WTPZ21 KNHC 020251 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 03:00 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 the center of Flossie was located near 18.2, -107.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN

MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 020043Z - 020215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely to continue. DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode. However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of 1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg. Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and damaging gusts remain possible. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207 40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 40 SW 2WX. ..LYONS..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-013-031-045-049-069-075-091-101-117-123-161-171-020340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH MCPHERSON MORRILL SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC007-047-071-095-102-121-020340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more