Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 974 WTPZ41 KNHC 020835 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie remains an impressive hurricane early this morning, although the well-defined eye evident earlier tonight has become less distinct and somewhat cloud filled in recent satellite images. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.5/102 knots from TAFB and T5.0/90 knots from SAB. Meanwhile, the objective intensity estimates ranged from 96 to 107 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity will be held at 100 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. A turn more to the west is expected beyond 48 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory to align with the latest consensus guidance trends, and closely follows a blend of the latest GDMI, FSSE and TVCE consensus aids. The window for additional strengthening appears to be closing quickly, as Flossie begins to move over slightly less conducive waters for intensification with sea surface temperatures now around 27C. Wind shear remains light and mid-level moisture remains high during the next 12 hours, so with the system remaining over adequately warm water, the intensity should change little. Flossie will move over much cooler water between 12 and 24 hours, and into a drier mid-level environment. This should result in rather rapid weakening of the system, with Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 48 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. The intensity forecast has been adjusted to show a bit faster weakening of the system which is in line with the latest intensity consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 839 FOPZ11 KNHC 020834 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 72 27(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 12 70(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 64 2 48(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 33(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 834 WTPZ31 KNHC 020834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 108.3W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through today. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 18.6, -108.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 922 WTPZ21 KNHC 020834 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely. A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely. A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely. A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely. A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more