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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

MD 1539 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 020426Z - 020630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat continues for the next few hours across portions of Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across southern SD/northern NE. Scattered strong, to locally severe, thunderstorms are noted ahead of this feature across northern NE. This activity is propagating toward a region of substantially less instability, though a LLJ appears to be influencing the longevity. Latest radar data suggests hail cores are generally sub severe, and this trend is decidedly down over the last few hours. New watch is not anticipated, though marginally severe hail and gusty winds could be noted in the short term. ..Darrow.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41389823 41020007 41770141 42819993 42489833 41389823 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 05:54:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 03:22:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 367 WTPZ31 KNHC 020553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 107.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 107.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 18.4, -107.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more