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WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 23:43:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 473 WTPZ31 KNHC 012343 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.9, -107.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

MD 1537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic and southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481... Valid 012156Z - 020000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues with convection across the Middle Atlantic into southern New England early this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak disturbance that tracked along the OH River has advanced into eastern PA, very near the NJ border. Organized convection continues just ahead of this feature, and new scattered robust updrafts are maturing across the southern Delmarva. Modest southwesterly flow favors this activity propagating off the Middle Atlantic Coast later this evening. Until then, a narrow corridor of strong instability extends across the southern Delmarva toward western Long Island, with moderate buoyancy into southern New England where surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s. This zone of instability will prove favorable robust updrafts capable of generating damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 42517144 41907108 40527340 37827558 37437798 38197828 39407619 41227492 42517144 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CHO TO 20 E BWI TO 20 W ACY. ..SPC..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-019-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-020040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES DORCHESTER PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-029-020040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 481 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 011655Z - 020100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and Central Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region over the next several hours ahead of a shortwave trough and attendant cold front. The airmass across the region is moist and unstable, with moderate to strong instability anticipated amid continued daytime heating. Vertical shear is modest, with a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode anticipated. Given the expected updraft strength and ample moisture, some strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing wind damaging are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southeast of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles northwest of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Mosier Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SSU TO 40 ENE CHO TO 15 NNE DOV TO 20 N NEL. ..SPC..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-012340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-019-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-012340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES DORCHESTER PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-025-029-012340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN Read more

MD 1536 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...INTO FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Wyoming...western South Dakota and Nebraska...into far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012143Z - 012315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms across parts of the High Plains should continue to intensify this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed thunderstorm development was underway from eastern WY, into northern CO and western NE/SD. Weak ascent from a subtle shortwave trough and strong diurnal heating will continue to support storm development through this afternoon into this evening. Initial storms will likely be high-based as deep mixing has reduced dewpoints into the upper 40s in spots. With time, storms should gradually move east/southeastward into more moist/unstable conditions. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will be more than sufficient to support strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear, while not overly strong (25-35 kt) will favor supercells and organized multi cells capable of hail (some potential near 2 inches in diameter) given the steep lapse rates and buoyancy. Damaging winds are also likely within the deeper-mixed boundary layer. Observational trends and CAM guidance suggests storms will continue to mature along and south of the Black Hills into western NE this evening. The severe threat should increase as convection develops and spreads east/southeastward. Some clustering is possible with time, though subtle forcing for ascent suggests lower storm coverage is perhaps more likely. Given the increasing severe risk, conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40780354 42130366 43750417 44910414 45000323 44340183 42390103 41220103 40630165 40350279 40780354 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012049Z - 012215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts producing isolated damaging winds should persist as storms spread east across southern New England through sunset. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of the broad convective swath across the eastern states has yielded localized strong gusts and isolated damaging winds, with mainly semi-discrete cells earlier. Convection has more recently consolidated into clusters and short linear segments across the Lower Hudson Valley. Outflow from earlier cells which exited the Mohawk Valley may merge with this slow-moving leading convection and should support persistence of sporadic strong gusts eastward. These will be favored where surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s prior to sunset. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41697382 42257310 42547278 42467179 42437107 42257083 41857092 41557135 41397203 41277295 41057362 41127408 41347417 41697382 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development, potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012031Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few areas of convection that have developed during peak heating, mostly confined to high terrain areas. This activity is developing in a relatively dry boundary layer characterized by dew point temperatures in the 40s F. Yet, strong heating has yielded strong low-level lapse rates, exceeding 9 C/km in most areas, and inverted-V profiles. Thus, strong downdraft winds are likely with any convective elements throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the activity gradually moves off high terrain areas. However, given the expectation for somewhat sparse coverage of storms, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45311353 45821314 46331196 46381151 45971105 44811087 42851118 42401218 42441297 42801357 44101361 45311353 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:31 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more