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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT

MD 1533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481... Valid 011902Z - 012100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple clusters spreading across the Piedmont to Coastal Plain should produce swaths of damaging winds as activity reaches Chesapeake/Delaware Bays and the adjacent Mid-Atlantic Coast. DISCUSSION...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing with multiple consolidating clusters over central to southeast PA and northern VA. The northwesternmost of these has maintained coherent but sub-severe outflow that should spell the end of severe potential in its wake. With potential for cold pool intensification, this cluster may accelerate and merge into the leading clusters. This would consequently increase damaging wind potential across the DE to Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Low to mid 90s surface temperatures, away from any immediate marine influence, are common in these regions, supporting peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg ahead of the clusters. Strong to localized severe gust potential is expected to peak in the next 2-4 hours. ..Grams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40477673 40307517 40177397 39757392 38857467 38287506 37917607 37807693 38057820 38397867 38597831 38777757 39457695 39927719 40147729 40477673 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 280 WTPZ41 KNHC 012032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected consensus. Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system weakens. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 526 WTPZ31 KNHC 012032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 106.7W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches for the southwestern coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today and tonight. By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.7, -106.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 76(79) 17(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 110W 50 X 29(29) 48(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 20N 110W 64 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 17(19) 18(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 240 WTPZ21 KNHC 012031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more