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WW 401 SEVERE TSTM SD WY 271920Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should develop and spread east across the Black Hills vicinity through early evening. Primary threat will be large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west northwest of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Grams Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:40:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 21:22:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 23(23) 56(79) 5(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 110W 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 5(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 5(34) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 31(36) 10(46) 3(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 272037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. Adrian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Adrian was located near 15.3, -106.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BORDER... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Supercells evolving into a narrow bowing complex appear likely across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma from late afternoon through tonight. Very large hail and perhaps a tornado will be the main threat initially, followed by potential for a swath of destructive wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. ...KS/OK area... Air mass recovery is being closely monitored in the wake of the earlier storms which have moved into central AR. Cool air currently resides over northeast OK and southeast KS, but winds have continued to veer and warming is underway. Areas of midlevel clouds do exist but substantial heating is occurring over much of the area. As such, the air mass should continue to destabilize, especially from western OK and the Panhandles into southwest KS within the 70s F dewpoint axis. Midday soundings from AMA show very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, approaching 9 C/km from the surface to 500 mb. Stronger mid and high-level flow exists just north of this area (40-60 kt at DDC), which will support supercells capable of very large hail with the activity now forming over northeast NM and southeast CO. These storms should merge over time, producing a substantial cold pool with a narrow corridor of destructive winds forecast near the KS/OK border. For more information see MCD 1307. ..Jewell.. 06/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023/ ...Raton Mesa to the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley... A stout mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored across central TX with a couple of ridge-riding MCSs possible around it. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy will become centered from southwest KS to the Ark-La-Miss at peak heating amid 70s surface dew points and very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km atop the moist axis. A small elevated cluster in eastern OK may track southeast along the pronounced buoyancy gradient, with a possibility for surface-based development downstream of it along the effective front towards the Ark-La-Miss. The weak large-scale forcing for ascent lowers confidence in the overall scenario, but there is potential for multicell clusters to spread southeast into the Lower MS Valley later this afternoon. Primary threat will be scattered damaging winds. Outflow from the morning complex in OK has reinforced the baroclinic zone across central to southern OK, but the leading edge of 70s surface dew points in southwest OK will advect north into northwest OK by late afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and storms will subsequently spread into southwest KS and the northern Panhandles by early evening. The initial storms will likely consist of a few supercells capable of producing very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. An increase in low-level shear this evening and increasing moisture with eastward extent could result in a window of opportunity for a tornado or two with the more discrete supercells. Thereafter, upscale growth into a small but particularly intense MCS appears probable, due to storm interactions/mergers in the very steep lapse rate environment and strengthening low-level jet. Localized swaths of destructive severe wind gusts from 80-110 mph will be possible into tonight across southern KS/northern OK. The overall threat will likely remain spatially confined owing to the pronounced EML/capping to its south and residual influence of this morning's convection, especially with eastern extent towards the Ozarks overnight. ...Northwest KS to ND... In the wake of elevated morning storms associated with warm advection near 700 mb, low-level moisture advection and surface heating will contribute to stronger destabilization from northwest KS into southwest SD where MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should be common. Farther north, more modest boundary-layer moisture will result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO will help sharpen the dryline by late afternoon close to the longitude of the CO/KS border, which should focus widely scattered thunderstorm development in northwest KS and western KS. Additional storms should develop over the Black Hills, with more isolated activity also possible into ND. With a mid-level jetlet crossing the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, relatively long/straight hodographs will favor a few intense supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and isolated severe wind gusts centered on western NE. Some clustering may occur during the evening as a southerly low-level jet intensifies but pronounced MLCIN and lack of instability with eastern extent suggest the severe threat should wane into central to eastern portions of NE/KS/SD. ...Mid-Atlantic into eastern NY... A mid-level trough with embedded perturbations and an associated surface cold front will move slowly eastward across NY/PA and toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lapse rates, buoyancy and vertical shear have all been reduced compared to yesterday, in the wake of prior widespread convection and as the primary jet moves offshore. Still, slightly cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating with residual moisture in cloud breaks could support isolated damaging winds in the strongest storms today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BORDER... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Supercells evolving into a narrow bowing complex appear likely across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma from late afternoon through tonight. Very large hail and perhaps a tornado will be the main threat initially, followed by potential for a swath of destructive wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. ...KS/OK area... Air mass recovery is being closely monitored in the wake of the earlier storms which have moved into central AR. Cool air currently resides over northeast OK and southeast KS, but winds have continued to veer and warming is underway. Areas of midlevel clouds do exist but substantial heating is occurring over much of the area. As such, the air mass should continue to destabilize, especially from western OK and the Panhandles into southwest KS within the 70s F dewpoint axis. Midday soundings from AMA show very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, approaching 9 C/km from the surface to 500 mb. Stronger mid and high-level flow exists just north of this area (40-60 kt at DDC), which will support supercells capable of very large hail with the activity now forming over northeast NM and southeast CO. These storms should merge over time, producing a substantial cold pool with a narrow corridor of destructive winds forecast near the KS/OK border. For more information see MCD 1307. ..Jewell.. 06/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023/ ...Raton Mesa to the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley... A stout mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored across central TX with a couple of ridge-riding MCSs possible around it. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy will become centered from southwest KS to the Ark-La-Miss at peak heating amid 70s surface dew points and very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km atop the moist axis. A small elevated cluster in eastern OK may track southeast along the pronounced buoyancy gradient, with a possibility for surface-based development downstream of it along the effective front towards the Ark-La-Miss. The weak large-scale forcing for ascent lowers confidence in the overall scenario, but there is potential for multicell clusters to spread southeast into the Lower MS Valley later this afternoon. Primary threat will be scattered damaging winds. Outflow from the morning complex in OK has reinforced the baroclinic zone across central to southern OK, but the leading edge of 70s surface dew points in southwest OK will advect north into northwest OK by late afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and storms will subsequently spread into southwest KS and the northern Panhandles by early evening. The initial storms will likely consist of a few supercells capable of producing very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. An increase in low-level shear this evening and increasing moisture with eastward extent could result in a window of opportunity for a tornado or two with the more discrete supercells. Thereafter, upscale growth into a small but particularly intense MCS appears probable, due to storm interactions/mergers in the very steep lapse rate environment and strengthening low-level jet. Localized swaths of destructive severe wind gusts from 80-110 mph will be possible into tonight across southern KS/northern OK. The overall threat will likely remain spatially confined owing to the pronounced EML/capping to its south and residual influence of this morning's convection, especially with eastern extent towards the Ozarks overnight. ...Northwest KS to ND... In the wake of elevated morning storms associated with warm advection near 700 mb, low-level moisture advection and surface heating will contribute to stronger destabilization from northwest KS into southwest SD where MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should be common. Farther north, more modest boundary-layer moisture will result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO will help sharpen the dryline by late afternoon close to the longitude of the CO/KS border, which should focus widely scattered thunderstorm development in northwest KS and western KS. Additional storms should develop over the Black Hills, with more isolated activity also possible into ND. With a mid-level jetlet crossing the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, relatively long/straight hodographs will favor a few intense supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and isolated severe wind gusts centered on western NE. Some clustering may occur during the evening as a southerly low-level jet intensifies but pronounced MLCIN and lack of instability with eastern extent suggest the severe threat should wane into central to eastern portions of NE/KS/SD. ...Mid-Atlantic into eastern NY... A mid-level trough with embedded perturbations and an associated surface cold front will move slowly eastward across NY/PA and toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lapse rates, buoyancy and vertical shear have all been reduced compared to yesterday, in the wake of prior widespread convection and as the primary jet moves offshore. Still, slightly cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating with residual moisture in cloud breaks could support isolated damaging winds in the strongest storms today. Read more

Gov. Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency in Jackson County on June 27, due to low stream flows and a near-record warm May. The above average snowpack was helpful, but stream flows quickly went back down to below average and were trending lower. KDRV-TV ABC 12 (Medford, Ore.), June 27, 2023

The City of Rosebud rescheduled its Fourth of July firework show to Sept. 2 on account of safety concerns due to drought. ABC 17 News (Columbia, Mo.), June 27, 2023

A burn advisory was issued in Chariton County on June 26. The public was discouraged from having any type of bonfire, campfire or controlled burn. The Rolla Police Department issued a similar burn advisory. ABC 17 News (Columbia, Mo.), June 27, 2023

The Fulton Fire Department enacted a burn ban as drought persisted. ABC 17 News (Columbia, Mo.), June 27, 2023

Monroe County issued a burn ban as drought increased the fire risk. ABC 17 News (Columbia, Mo.), June 27, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The dry thunderstorm forecast was adjusted to account for the latest model guidance. With the trough weakening, it appears there will be an area of lighter surface winds in New Mexico. The elevated area was adjusted to reflect this trend. Still, some enhanced surface winds do appear possible in parts of the Permian Basin vicinity due to the surface trough in the central/southern Plains. An elevated area was added to this region where fuels have dried out in the presence of recently hot surface temperatures. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... While the mid-level trough is forecast to weaken as the main wave exits to the northeast, moderate mid-level flow will remain over the Southwest for Day2/Wed. Gusty winds and low humidity over dry fuels will support widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible. ...Southwest into the Four Corners... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected as the main upper trough begins to shift to the northeast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries will persist with single RH values 7-12% likely across portions of northeast AZ and western NM through the afternoon. With surface winds of 20-25 mph expected atop dry fuels, several hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Fire concerns may linger into the evening with another day of poor humidity recoveries below 30% expected While lift will be weaker than the preceding days, lingering mid-level moisture with PWATs of 0.5-0.6 inches will support isolated high-based thunderstorm along the higher terrain of central NM. With dry sub-cloud layers in excess of 3km, little wetting rainfall is expected. Weak MUCAPE will however support the potential for isolated dry lightning strikes within very receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The dry thunderstorm forecast was adjusted to account for the latest model guidance. With the trough weakening, it appears there will be an area of lighter surface winds in New Mexico. The elevated area was adjusted to reflect this trend. Still, some enhanced surface winds do appear possible in parts of the Permian Basin vicinity due to the surface trough in the central/southern Plains. An elevated area was added to this region where fuels have dried out in the presence of recently hot surface temperatures. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... While the mid-level trough is forecast to weaken as the main wave exits to the northeast, moderate mid-level flow will remain over the Southwest for Day2/Wed. Gusty winds and low humidity over dry fuels will support widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible. ...Southwest into the Four Corners... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected as the main upper trough begins to shift to the northeast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries will persist with single RH values 7-12% likely across portions of northeast AZ and western NM through the afternoon. With surface winds of 20-25 mph expected atop dry fuels, several hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Fire concerns may linger into the evening with another day of poor humidity recoveries below 30% expected While lift will be weaker than the preceding days, lingering mid-level moisture with PWATs of 0.5-0.6 inches will support isolated high-based thunderstorm along the higher terrain of central NM. With dry sub-cloud layers in excess of 3km, little wetting rainfall is expected. Weak MUCAPE will however support the potential for isolated dry lightning strikes within very receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Satellite wind data received within the past hour indicate that the
low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become much better organized, and it
appears that a tropical storm is forming. Advisories will be
initiated on this system at 2 PM PDT. This system is expected to
move westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days, away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are most likely Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Sporadic severe storms are also possible over the lower Mississippi Valley, and over parts of northern to central Plains ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain situated over the southern Plains, with 50 kt midlevel winds from CO into the Midwest enhancing shear. A weak surface trough will extend from near Minneapolis southwestward into the central Plains with moderate instability along that axis. A subtle disturbance aloft will round the ridge and move from MN into MI, providing a focus for severe storms. Otherwise, diurnal activity is expected from eastern WY into NE from afternoon through evening, with continued destabilization possible overnight there. Remnant MCS activity may persist into portions of the lower MS Valley from the previous nights activity, while diurnal storms develop over the KS portion of the surface trough. ...Upper MS Valley... Moderate instability will develop during the day from IA into MN and western WI with low-level shear supporting a few supercells after 21Z. Large hail will also be likely given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear. Storms are likely to spread southeastward during the evening, with greater uncertainty regarding MCS potential overnight. A low-level warm advection zone will develop from western WI into IL late in the day and overnight as 850 mb winds veer, and this could support at least an isolated severe risk through that corridor, depending on destabilization. Damaging winds would be the primary concern overnight. ...Northern/Central Plains... A few supercells are expected to form after 21Z from southeast WY into western NE, where low-level winds will veer to easterly, supporting moisture advection. This will occur beneath 40+ kt midlevel winds, with large hail likely. Additional severe storms with hail and wind may develop even after 00Z as the low-level jet increases over the CO/NE/KS area and capping remains minimal along I-80. ...Lower MS Valley... Northerly winds east of the upper ridge along with a moist unstable air mass will conditionally support southward-moving storms. Models solutions vary as to how much activity may be ongoing Wednesday morning, but any activity that exists or develops in this north-south warm advection zone may produce damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are most likely Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Sporadic severe storms are also possible over the lower Mississippi Valley, and over parts of northern to central Plains ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain situated over the southern Plains, with 50 kt midlevel winds from CO into the Midwest enhancing shear. A weak surface trough will extend from near Minneapolis southwestward into the central Plains with moderate instability along that axis. A subtle disturbance aloft will round the ridge and move from MN into MI, providing a focus for severe storms. Otherwise, diurnal activity is expected from eastern WY into NE from afternoon through evening, with continued destabilization possible overnight there. Remnant MCS activity may persist into portions of the lower MS Valley from the previous nights activity, while diurnal storms develop over the KS portion of the surface trough. ...Upper MS Valley... Moderate instability will develop during the day from IA into MN and western WI with low-level shear supporting a few supercells after 21Z. Large hail will also be likely given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear. Storms are likely to spread southeastward during the evening, with greater uncertainty regarding MCS potential overnight. A low-level warm advection zone will develop from western WI into IL late in the day and overnight as 850 mb winds veer, and this could support at least an isolated severe risk through that corridor, depending on destabilization. Damaging winds would be the primary concern overnight. ...Northern/Central Plains... A few supercells are expected to form after 21Z from southeast WY into western NE, where low-level winds will veer to easterly, supporting moisture advection. This will occur beneath 40+ kt midlevel winds, with large hail likely. Additional severe storms with hail and wind may develop even after 00Z as the low-level jet increases over the CO/NE/KS area and capping remains minimal along I-80. ...Lower MS Valley... Northerly winds east of the upper ridge along with a moist unstable air mass will conditionally support southward-moving storms. Models solutions vary as to how much activity may be ongoing Wednesday morning, but any activity that exists or develops in this north-south warm advection zone may produce damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/27/2023 Read more

A Fourth of July cookout for ten will cost $67.73, based on the 2023 American Farm Bureau Federation marketbasket survey. The $67.73 grocery bill is 3% lower than in 2022, but still approximately 14% higher than just two years ago. The price of ground beef has risen 4% as drought drove up feed prices and lowered the number of available cattle. American Farm Bureau Federation (Washington, D.C.), June 27, 2023

A fish kill occurred on the Grand Glaize arm of the lake at Lake of the Ozarks and was a natural event, per the Missouri Department of Conservation. A backwater upstream likely ran out of water and dissolved oxygen, leading to the deaths of the fish. KTTS-FM 94.7 (Springfield, Mo.), June 27, 2023