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Ozaukee County farmers who switched to no-till farming have found that their fields retained more subsoil moisture amid drought. WTMJ TV 4 (Milwaukee, Wis.), June 29, 2023

So many people in Bee Cave irrigated their lawns to keep them looking decent amid drought that water storage tanks fell low enough to allow water pressure to drop on the morning of June 29. The West Travis County Public Utility Agency was in stage 1 of drought restrictions. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), June 29, 2023

Fire departments across the Midwest are encouraging firework safety and promoting public fireworks displays while discouraging individuals lighting their own fireworks as drought increases the fire danger. KHQA-TV ABC 7 (Quincy, ill.), June 28, 2023

Below normal rainfall in May and June slowed wheat growth and led the crop to senesce prematurely. The wheat near Ionia was shorter than normal. WOODTV (Grand Rapids, Mich.), June 29, 2023

The Mississippi River south of Illinois was again extremely low in spots just as it was last fall during an intense episode of drought. Barge capacity was being voluntarily reduced on stretches of the Mississippi River, per a senior vice president for American Waterways Operators. Many communities along the Mississippi River were anxious, hoping to avoid additional stressors like they experienced last fall when drought cost river towns billions of dollars in losses due to higher energy and water purification costs, lost tourism revenue, commodity losses and other shocks. The Associated Press (St. Louis, Mo.), June 29, 2023

MD 1344 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Areas affected...Parts of northern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418... Valid 292215Z - 292345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible with a southward-moving supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening. It is unclear if a small downstream watch will be needed, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a southward-advancing supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening, which is tracking along the eastern edge of a strongly unstable surface-based air mass. In the short-term, large hail (possibly to 2 inches in diameter) and damaging winds remain possible with this activity. Within the pre-convective environment, a moist and well-mixed boundary layer (evident via surface obs and HCRs in visible satellite imagery) could support the maintenance of this supercell cluster with southward extent, before the onset of increasing nocturnal static stability. Modest deep-layer flow/shear limits confidence in how long lived convection will be this evening, or how large of an area will be affected. Trends are being monitored for a new watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34068790 34438786 34668772 34738753 34728705 34588678 34368665 33928662 33548690 33558740 33718774 34068790 Read more

The 2023 drought in the Midwest was being compared to the drought years of 2012 and 1988 when crops were devastated by the lack of rain. Just half of the U.S. corn crop is rated good or excellent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, for the lowest percentage since 1988. Corn near Peoria, Illinois was barely waist high when it ought to be 10 feet tall. The leaves were yellow, and it wasn’t clear whether ears of corn were developing. The Associated Press (St. Louis, Mo.), June 29, 2023

MD 1343 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 419... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 419... Valid 292212Z - 292345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 419 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 419. Very large hail remains a concerns and an isolated tornado is still possible over the next few hours. Storms may eventually congeal into one or more MCSs with a severe wind threat later this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and supercells continue to progress eastward across eastern WY and the Denver Metropolitan area, with a history of severe hail. MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows these storms continuing to build in intensity, with 50 dBZ echoes approaching 40 kft with some of the supercell structures. 8+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates atop mid 50s F surface dewpoints are contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms, where RAP forecast soundings also show elongated hodographs and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, the stronger multicells and supercells should continue to pose a large hail threat, with 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the stronger, longer-lived supercells. Low-level shear is relatively weak across the central High Plains, with ongoing supercells showing outflow tendencies. However, a tornado or two still cannot be ruled out, especially over southeast Wyoming. Here, enhanced upslope flow and relatively higher 0-3 km CAPE may enhance tilting/stretching potential if a storm can become inflow-dominant. Nonetheless, storm outflows should support multicellular mergers later this evening, especially in/near the Nebraska Panhandle. Should this occur, severe gusts could become more prevalent. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39390516 41390531 42590483 42940415 42860320 41980284 40920270 39990270 39330329 39160420 39390516 Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BMG TO 15 N SDF TO 25 SE LUK. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-151-165-199-292240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON INC043-061-292240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD HARRISON KYC001-003-005-009-021-027-029-031-033-047-055-057-059-061-067- 073-085-087-091-093-097-099-101-103-107-111-113-123-139-141-143- 149-155-163-167-169-171-177-179-183-185-187-191-209-211-213-215- 217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-292240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 292015Z - 300100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized/previously intense squall line may largely continue to gradually weaken, but nonetheless pose a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon as it progresses generally southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Lexington KY to 10 miles west northwest of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 33040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-075-087-121-123-292240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-292240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-009-015-021-027-031-292240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 419 TORNADO CO NE WY 291915Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop near the foothills and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon. Very large hail is possible, along with the potential for tornadoes. The storms will persist generally eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado plains this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Douglas WY to 45 miles southeast of Denver CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW 417...WW 418... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-292240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT DEKALB FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 418 SEVERE TSTM AL 291900Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will move southward from Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama through mid/late afternoon, while additional storms could develop behind it and intensify with a secondary round of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 20 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Muscle Shoals AL to 65 miles east of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW 417... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 35030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 418 SEVERE TSTM AL 291900Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will move southward from Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama through mid/late afternoon, while additional storms could develop behind it and intensify with a secondary round of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 20 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Muscle Shoals AL to 65 miles east of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW 417... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 35030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SLO TO 10 NNE EVV TO 35 WNW SDF TO 40 NNE SDF. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...IWX...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-055-065-081-191-193-292240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON WAYNE WHITE INC123-129-147-163-173-292240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PERRY POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 417 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 291810Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western and Central Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense/fast-moving squall line will continue generally eastward into Indiana, southern Illinois and possibly far southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. It may eventually weaken as it moves across Indiana, but damaging winds, some hail, and possibly a brief tornado will all be possible, especially across western Indiana through early/mid-afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of South Bend IN to 10 miles east southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 417 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 291810Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western and Central Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense/fast-moving squall line will continue generally eastward into Indiana, southern Illinois and possibly far southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. It may eventually weaken as it moves across Indiana, but damaging winds, some hail, and possibly a brief tornado will all be possible, especially across western Indiana through early/mid-afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of South Bend IN to 10 miles east southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28045. ...Guyer Read more

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 292055 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The cyclone's satellite presentation, at least in visible imagery, has improved markedly through the day, and the low-level center had become apparent in a relatively cloud-free region (which has recently become obscured) surrounded by developing deep convection. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB (with similar objective numbers), so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with the cyclone now designated as Tropical Storm Beatriz. Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/10 kt, along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico. This ridge is forecast to weaken a bit during the next few days, and Beatriz is therefore expected to move northwestward for the next 4 days or so. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right, closer to the coast of Mexico, and some models (in particular the ECMWF and HCCA) bring the center inland in about 24-36 hours. The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the east as well, and now shows the center of Beatriz grazing the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in the next 24-48 hours. It is important to remember that Beatriz's oblique angle of approach to the southwestern coast of Mexico makes it difficult to know exactly where the center might come onshore, if at all, and therefore a larger-than-normal part of the coastline is at risk of some effects from the storm. Beatriz is now expected to rapidly intensify during the next 24 hours in an environment of low shear and abundant moisture, and over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius. Following the trend from this morning, the intensity guidance shows significant strengthening in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast has been raised to the high end of the guidance, closest to the HAFS-A and HCCA solutions at 24 hours. After that time, Beatriz's intensity will largely depend on if the center reaches land. Based on the official track forecast's proximity to land, intensification is shown through 36 hours, with weakening thereafter. Faster weakening is anticipated near the end of the forecast period due to drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, and global model guidance suggests that Beatriz could degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Friday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas Friday and Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:55:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 21:29:07 GMT