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Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 292054 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 21(21) 22(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 48(49) 11(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 21(21) 11(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X 51(51) 18(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) L CARDENAS 50 X 14(14) 10(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 47(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 292054 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 99.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 99.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 99.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 292054 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beatriz Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 99.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Zihuatanejo to Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Playa Perula Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the west-central coast of Mexico and in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 99.4 West. Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight, with a decrease in speed occurring over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move very near or along the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beatriz is likely to become a hurricane on Friday. Beatriz is forecast to be a hurricane while it moves near portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beatriz can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area Friday and Friday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through early Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through Sunday morning, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Oaxaca west to Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to build and spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 the center of Beatriz was located near 15.0, -99.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:47:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 21:22:52 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 967 WTPZ41 KNHC 292046 TCDEP1 Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 A ragged eye briefly emerged in visible satellite imagery today, but it has once again become obscured by the central dense overcast of Adrian. It appears that the hurricane is struggling with some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment. A dry slot is wrapping around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and earlier SSMIS microwave data showed a weakness in the inner-core convection around the eyewall. The 18 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt, while the objective ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 65-70 kt range. A blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 75 kt for this advisory. The vertical wind shear is forecast to gradually increase over Adrian during the next several days, which is expected to induce a weakening trend that is supported by all the available intensity guidance. The official NHC forecast remains near or just above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery, the updated NHC forecast shows Adrian becoming post-tropical at day 3, as it appears likely to lose all deep convection over cooler waters and within a drier and stronger shear environment. While the official forecast carries a remnant low through day 5, it could be near dissipation by the end of the period. The track of Adrian today has been to the right of previous forecasts, and its initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward during the next few days while being steered by a high-pressure ridge to its northeast. The updated NHC forecast has again been adjusted to the right of the previous one, and it generally lies between the TVCE and HCCA aids. As the shallow remnant low spins down later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn more westward within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292044 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 8( 9) 45(54) 14(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292044 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 ...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 110.7W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 110.7 West. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, and weakening is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 the center of Adrian was located near 16.4, -110.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N SLO TO 25 NNE SLO TO 10 E MTO TO 20 NE CMI TO 25 NNW MMO TO 30 E DBQ. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-037-043-063-089-093-141-197-292140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KENDALL OGLE WILL INC089-127-292140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ741-742-743-744-745-292140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and hail remain likely this afternoon over parts of southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Other severe storms with large hail and damaging winds gusts are expected across the Tennessee Valley, as well as the central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the existing outlook include clearing probabilities from behind the IL/IN MCS where the air mass has stabilized. For more information see mesoscale discussions 1341. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ ...Midwest/Tennessee Valley including MO/IL/IN/KY/TN... An upper-ridge peripheral zone of locally intense/significant severe weather is expected today, especially across Illinois into western/southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky southward across the Tennessee Valley. A prominent/relatively large MCS across northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois at late morning will continue to progress eastward through a very unstable air mass, with potential for significant wind gusts, occasional hail, and some convective line-embedded tornado risk. The eastern extent of the most intense severe weather is a bit uncertain given current air mass characteristics across far eastern Illinois into Indiana in the wake of early day storms, but severe weather can nonetheless be expected through the afternoon into evening. Another focused corridor of severe weather will exist from the Lower Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley, highlighted with a leading south/southeastward-moving MCS, as well as regenerative potentially severe convection on its trailing west/northwest flanks. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail will be possible into this evening in this corridor. ...Front Range/Central Plains this afternoon/evening... Have upgraded portions of the Front Range and southeast Wyoming/far western Nebraska and northeast Colorado to an Enhanced Risk. Severe storms are expected later this afternoon into tonight within the post-frontal upslope low-level flow across eastern Colorado/southeast Wyoming, with appreciable low-level moisture having spread westward to the Front Range overnight. Breaks in the low clouds will support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg), when thunderstorm development will become more probable on and immediately east of the higher terrain from Colorado into southeast Wyoming. The moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, along with some tornado potential. Upscale growth into a few clusters will be possible this evening, with an attendant threat for isolated severe-caliber winds. Some of the evening convection may persist into the overnight hours across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas with some threat for isolated large hail and wind damage, potentially as far east as southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and hail remain likely this afternoon over parts of southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Other severe storms with large hail and damaging winds gusts are expected across the Tennessee Valley, as well as the central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the existing outlook include clearing probabilities from behind the IL/IN MCS where the air mass has stabilized. For more information see mesoscale discussions 1341. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ ...Midwest/Tennessee Valley including MO/IL/IN/KY/TN... An upper-ridge peripheral zone of locally intense/significant severe weather is expected today, especially across Illinois into western/southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky southward across the Tennessee Valley. A prominent/relatively large MCS across northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois at late morning will continue to progress eastward through a very unstable air mass, with potential for significant wind gusts, occasional hail, and some convective line-embedded tornado risk. The eastern extent of the most intense severe weather is a bit uncertain given current air mass characteristics across far eastern Illinois into Indiana in the wake of early day storms, but severe weather can nonetheless be expected through the afternoon into evening. Another focused corridor of severe weather will exist from the Lower Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley, highlighted with a leading south/southeastward-moving MCS, as well as regenerative potentially severe convection on its trailing west/northwest flanks. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail will be possible into this evening in this corridor. ...Front Range/Central Plains this afternoon/evening... Have upgraded portions of the Front Range and southeast Wyoming/far western Nebraska and northeast Colorado to an Enhanced Risk. Severe storms are expected later this afternoon into tonight within the post-frontal upslope low-level flow across eastern Colorado/southeast Wyoming, with appreciable low-level moisture having spread westward to the Front Range overnight. Breaks in the low clouds will support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg), when thunderstorm development will become more probable on and immediately east of the higher terrain from Colorado into southeast Wyoming. The moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, along with some tornado potential. Upscale growth into a few clusters will be possible this evening, with an attendant threat for isolated severe-caliber winds. Some of the evening convection may persist into the overnight hours across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas with some threat for isolated large hail and wind damage, potentially as far east as southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MKL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 5 W CHA. ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC031-061-099-181-292240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE GRUNDY LAWRENCE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

The Pettis County, Missouri, Board of County Commissioners on June 29 issued a state of emergency in the county as the county’s drought depiction turned extreme this week on the U.S. Drought Monitor. The emergency declaration also puts the county in a burn ban. KSHB 41 (Kansas City, Mo.), June 29, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the Southwestern US will continue to weaken as the flow pattern gradually transitions to more zonal flow aloft. With the weakening winds over the Southwest, surface flow will weaken substantially. A weak cold front will move south from the Great Basin ushering in a cooler and slightly less dry air mass than the preceding days. The net result will be much more limited fire-weather potential, with only locally elevated conditions expected over portions of southern NM. ...Thunder... While the trough will be substantially weaker, lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the front, combined with subtle lift will allow for isolated thunderstorms across central and western CO. Likely high-based, owing to the limited moisture, there is some potential for dry lightning with these storms. However, the slowly unraveling forcing for ascent suggests uncertainty in the storm coverage. In addition, area fuels are driest in the lower terrain farther west where coverage is again questionable. While a few dry strikes are possible, uncertainty is too high for an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the Southwestern US will continue to weaken as the flow pattern gradually transitions to more zonal flow aloft. With the weakening winds over the Southwest, surface flow will weaken substantially. A weak cold front will move south from the Great Basin ushering in a cooler and slightly less dry air mass than the preceding days. The net result will be much more limited fire-weather potential, with only locally elevated conditions expected over portions of southern NM. ...Thunder... While the trough will be substantially weaker, lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the front, combined with subtle lift will allow for isolated thunderstorms across central and western CO. Likely high-based, owing to the limited moisture, there is some potential for dry lightning with these storms. However, the slowly unraveling forcing for ascent suggests uncertainty in the storm coverage. In addition, area fuels are driest in the lower terrain farther west where coverage is again questionable. While a few dry strikes are possible, uncertainty is too high for an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought kept Lake Superior from rising by nearly 3 inches in June as it usually does. The water level remained unchanged. Lake Superior usually increases from April to September, then falls during the winter. Duluth News Tribune (Minn.), June 29, 2023

250
ABPZ20 KNHC 291739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Adrian, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Two-E, located about 150 miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Berg

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE EVV TO 35 ESE OWB TO 45 S SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-163-173-291840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC003-009-031-047-059-061-085-099-101-107-141-149-177-183-213- 219-227-233-291840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HART HENDERSON HOPKINS LOGAN MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more