Aggregator

WW 294 TORNADO FL GA CW 142020Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of supercells are expected to spread eastward into southeast Georgia through the evening with the attendant threats for a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts, and occasional large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Valdosta GA to 30 miles northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...WW 291...WW 292...WW 293... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-142340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-037-043-049-051-053- 055-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-097-099-101- 103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-149-151-155-159-163-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-142340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-037-043-049-051-053- 055-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-097-099-101- 103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-149-151-155-159-163-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR Read more

WW 293 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 141840Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...A supercell cluster is evolving into a bow echo along the Louisiana/Arkansas border, and this cluster will likely persist across the remainder of northern Louisiana into central Mississippi through the afternoon. A derecho-producing event is probable with intense damaging wind swaths up to 90 mph. Embedded supercells will pose a threat for 1.5-3 inch diameter hail, and embedded circulations will also be capable of producing tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Monroe LA to 20 miles east of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291...WW 292... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28050. ...Thompson Read more

The lack of rain has slowed corn growth in the Peoria area. Leaves were also curling. WEEK (East Peoria, Ill.), June 14, 2023

WW 297 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 142135Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Arkansas Far Southeast Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon and evening across western and central Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma. Environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of very large hail (i.e. diameter of 2" to 2.5") and strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of De Queen AR to 25 miles north northwest of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...WW 296... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

The Columbia Borough Council voted to ban fireworks in the borough from June 9 through July 9, with some exceptions. The ban was enacted due to the current drought and the Lancaster County burn ban. WHTM-TV 27 (Harrisburg, Pa.), June 14, 2023

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON GAC007-017-019-027-037-053-061-071-075-081-087-093-095-099-131- 145-149-155-173-177-185-193-197-199-201-205-215-239-243-249-253- 259-261-263-269-273-275-277-285-287-307-315-321-142140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY COLQUITT COOK CRISP DECATUR DOOLY DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY HARRIS HEARD IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MACON MARION MERIWETHER MILLER MITCHELL MUSCOGEE QUITMAN RANDOLPH SCHLEY Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON GAC007-017-019-027-037-053-061-071-075-081-087-093-095-099-131- 145-149-155-173-177-185-193-197-199-201-205-215-239-243-249-253- 259-261-263-269-273-275-277-285-287-307-315-321-142140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY COLQUITT COOK CRISP DECATUR DOOLY DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY HARRIS HEARD IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MACON MARION MERIWETHER MILLER MITCHELL MUSCOGEE QUITMAN RANDOLPH SCHLEY Read more

WW 292 TORNADO AL GA 141615Z - 142300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama West-central and Southwest Georgia * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should strengthen through the afternoon, while posing a threat for very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Dothan AL to 35 miles east northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason/Thompson Read more

WW 0291 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CBM TO 20 S BHM TO 20 NW LGC. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-017-021-037-047-051-063-065-081-085-087-091-101- 105-107-109-113-119-123-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS CHILTON COOSA DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0291 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CBM TO 20 S BHM TO 20 NW LGC. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-017-021-037-047-051-063-065-081-085-087-091-101- 105-107-109-113-119-123-142140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS CHILTON COOSA DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0290 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SHV TO 35 ESE ELD. WW 290 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 142100Z. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-049-061-073-111-127-142100- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WINN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS ACROSS AL INTO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe hazards, including very large hail, swaths of intense wind gusts/damage, and tornadoes, are expected from the ArkLaTex into the Southeast this afternoon into tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Arklatex into GA... Recent surface analysis places a residual outflow boundary from the MLU (in northeast LA) vicinity eastward to near MGM (in central AL) and then more southeast to north of TLH (in the eastern FL Panhandle). Most of the ongoing storms are just north of this boundary, including the few tornadic supercells over southeast GA. This area was addressed in recently issued MCD 1043, which mentions that a corridor of greater tornado potential may be evolving across portions of southern GA. Longer-lived supercells will likely continue with a risk for large hail and tornadoes (possibly strong) for the next couple of hours. Development farther west across northern LA has shown a trend towards more linear organization/upscale growth, with the outflow boundary potentially providing a favorable corridor for a significant severe-wind threat into central MS. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #293, which contains Particularly Dangerous Situation wording, was recently issued to cover this threat. Several bowing segments and supercells are ongoing between these two areas (i.e. across central MS and central AL), with very large hail and strong gusts possible with these storms as well. Given the robust vertical shear and strong/extreme buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to continue across these areas throughout the evening as well. ...North/Central TX... Warm and very moist conditions are in place across the region, with the recent 18Z FWD sampling almost 5000 J/kg of MLCAPE. An outflow boundary extends from just southwest of PRX southwestward through the Metroplex and SEP to about 50 miles south of ABI. This boundary could be the focus for additional storm development this afternoon. Even so, any development will be battling significant dry air entrainment, which leads to some uncertainty regarding storm coverage. Regardless, any storms that do persist should be accompanied by very large hail (3+" in diameter) and strong downdrafts. ..Mosier.. 06/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/ ...ArkLaTex to GA through tonight... The unusually strong flow pattern continues from the southern Plains eastward to the Southeast, with 50+ kt midlevel flow across the corridor, coincident with steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy. Embedded speed maxima will move generally eastward through this corridor, around the southern periphery of the midlevel closed low over the lower Great Lakes. The primary severe threat will continue through the afternoon and into tonight from the ArkLaTex across MS/AL into southern GA. Multiple clusters of severe storms are ongoing, including both supercells and line segments. The cluster in northern MS will likely persist through the afternoon while moving east-southeastward across central AL, where additional supercell development is expected within the warm sector ahead of the cluster. The environment of large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 K/kg) and effective bulk shear in excess of 60 kt is quite unusual for mid June into the I-20 corridor, and this will support an unusually high threat for severe storms (including significant severe events). Supercells will be capable of producing isolated very large hail to near 3 inches in diameter with the supercells forming in northeast TX, and with supercells farther east into AL. A complex storm evolution is expected from MS across AL into GA along the buoyancy gradient, as the ongoing clusters and new storms interact and potentially support upscale growth into larger clusters. Swaths of wind damage, some up to 80 mph, can be expected with the MS/AL clusters this afternoon and into GA along the residual outflow boundary. This boundary will locally enhance low-level shear, with the potential for a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong), from southwest GA into southeast/central AL with both the isolated supercells and with embedded circulations in any larger clusters. Another cluster could evolve from the northeast TX supercells, and this convection will have a corridor of strong instability to support its maintenance across northern LA into central MS and eventually AL later this afternoon into early tonight. The initial supercells could produce very large hail, while upscale growth will favor swaths of damaging winds (some significant), as well as a few tornadoes. ...Central TX this afternoon/evening... Strong-extreme buoyancy is expected again across central TX, but forcing for ascent will be weak. If sufficient heating/mixing can occur, an isolated storm may form this afternoon along the surface front into central TX. The environment conditionally favors splitting supercells with very large hail, though storm formation/coverage is uncertain. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England this afternoon... Pockets of surface heating will drive weak buoyancy to the east of the low across southern New England, where isolated strong-severe storms may occur (see MD #1037 for additional information). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details on the Day 2/Thursday fire-weather threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strengthening mid-level jet will cross New Mexico on Thursday with 50 to 60 knots of flow across southern New Mexico by the afternoon/evening. As the associated mid-level trough amplifies, lee cyclogenesis is expected in the southern High Plains. This will tighten the pressure gradient across New Mexico and lead to enhanced westerly surface flow. The strongest flow will be across southern New Mexico, beneath the mid-level speed max, where further enhancement of surface winds is expected due to the deeply mixed airmass beneath this stronger flow. In southern New Mexico, expect sustained surface winds to approach 30 mph for a few hours in the afternoon with relative humidity below 5% in many locations. Given the high-end Critical meteorological conditions in the region and cured or nearly cured fuels in the region, a Critical delineation is appropriate. Across northern New Mexico some guidance, such as the HRRR, suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions could materialize. However, expect the stronger winds to remain closer to the stronger mid-level flow and best deep mixing. In addition, fuels are less favorable in this region. Therefore, have kept the Elevated delineation near the gradient between less and more favorable fuels which is similar to the northern extent of the RAP stronger surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLH TO 45 E GWO TO 10 SE CBM. ..LYONS..06/14/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC007-015-019-051-083-087-097-103-105-133-159-142040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW HOLMES LEFLORE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA SUNFLOWER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...MUCH OF OK...NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE ARKLATEX...AND FROM SOUTHERN MS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and portions of the central Great Plains Thursday into Thursday night. Some of these may become capable of producing damaging hail and wind gusts. ...Synopsis... A trough/ridge/trough upper pattern is forecast to persist across the northern CONUS and Canada on Thursday, with some deepening of both troughs promoted by shortwave troughs rotating through their bases. This region will remain split from the westerlies that extend from the Southwest across the southern Plains and Southeast farther south. A more complex pattern is anticipated within this corridor, with several convectively augmented shortwave troughs moving through this belt of stronger flow. At the surface, a convectively reinforced boundary will likely be in place across southern portions of the Southeast states early, potentially sharpening throughout the day. A cold front is expected to move southeastward across the northern Plains, while cyclogenesis occurs further south across southeast CO. Expectation is for the resulting low to then move eastward into western KS, with an attendant dryline moving eastward across the TX/OK Panhandles. ...Central/Southern Plains... Ample low-level moisture is expected to be in place from the southern Plains northwestward into the central High Plains/central Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Expectation is for upper 60s dewpoints to reach through much of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK, with mid 60s into southeast CO/southwest KS and low 70s remaining farther south across north TX (and possibly south-central OK). This low-level moisture beneath a strong EML will result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough could with convergence along an eastward-progressing dryline is expected to result in convective initiation, likely beginning across southeast CO and then expanding southward across the eastern TX Panhandle and into western OK. Moderate shear will combine with strong buoyancy to create an environment supportive of supercells. Long hodographs and strong mid-level flow suggest very large hail (i.e. 2 to 3" in diameter) is probable. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with some gusts from 65-75 mph possible. Modest southeasterly surface winds are expected east of the dryline, with the veering low-level wind profiles supporting tornadoes as well. Portions of this region may need higher probabilities in later outlooks. Warm mid-level temperatures farther east may temper the wind gust and tornado threat with eastern extent, but steep lapse rates and strong shear suggest the hail threat should persist into the evening. Additionally, elevated storm development is possible across eastern OK into the Arklatex vicinity during the evening and overnight. Large hail is the greatest threat with this later activity. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast... Despite the likelihood that one or more convective systems will move across the Southeast on Wednesday, surface dewpoints are still expected to be in low 70s across much of the Gulf Coast, to the south of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across the region. Latitude where this boundary ends up tomorrow morning is uncertain, but most guidance suggests it will extend from southern MS through southern GA but early afternoon. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still be in place over this region, contributing to strong/extreme buoyancy by early afternoon. Expectation for early afternoon storm development within this environment. Vertical shear will be anomalously strong and will likely support an initially supercellular mode. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary severe risk. Some evolution towards bowing structures capable of damaging gusts is anticipated after the initially cellular mode. ..Mosier.. 06/14/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of Baja California. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By this
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch