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No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 10 23:49:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 10 23:49:02 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lidia, located near the west-central coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 the center of Lidia was located near 20.1, -105.5 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The period will begin with a mid-level trough ejecting from the Rockies and impinging on the Mississippi Valley late this week into the weekend, encouraging strong surface cyclone development across the central Plains. Trailing this cyclone will be a surface dryline and cold front, accompanied by dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of the southern High Plains Day 3/Thursday, where confidence is highest in at least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions occurring. High pressure building over the Interior West will encourage the strengthening of a surface pressure gradient over southern California on Thursday, supporting dry offshore flow, warranting the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. For Friday into Saturday, the cold front and accompanying dry and breezy conditions will overspread portions of western Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. However, confidence in long-duration dry and windy conditions is low, with Critical probabilities withheld. After Saturday, surface high pressure and cooler surface temperatures will overspread much of the central and western CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The period will begin with a mid-level trough ejecting from the Rockies and impinging on the Mississippi Valley late this week into the weekend, encouraging strong surface cyclone development across the central Plains. Trailing this cyclone will be a surface dryline and cold front, accompanied by dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of the southern High Plains Day 3/Thursday, where confidence is highest in at least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions occurring. High pressure building over the Interior West will encourage the strengthening of a surface pressure gradient over southern California on Thursday, supporting dry offshore flow, warranting the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. For Friday into Saturday, the cold front and accompanying dry and breezy conditions will overspread portions of western Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. However, confidence in long-duration dry and windy conditions is low, with Critical probabilities withheld. After Saturday, surface high pressure and cooler surface temperatures will overspread much of the central and western CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The period will begin with a mid-level trough ejecting from the Rockies and impinging on the Mississippi Valley late this week into the weekend, encouraging strong surface cyclone development across the central Plains. Trailing this cyclone will be a surface dryline and cold front, accompanied by dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of the southern High Plains Day 3/Thursday, where confidence is highest in at least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions occurring. High pressure building over the Interior West will encourage the strengthening of a surface pressure gradient over southern California on Thursday, supporting dry offshore flow, warranting the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. For Friday into Saturday, the cold front and accompanying dry and breezy conditions will overspread portions of western Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. However, confidence in long-duration dry and windy conditions is low, with Critical probabilities withheld. After Saturday, surface high pressure and cooler surface temperatures will overspread much of the central and western CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102009 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Lidia became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC and has continued to intensify since that time. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found that the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 950 mb. In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 116 kt, which adjusts to about 105 kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR surface wind reported was 108 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Lidia has strengthened by a very impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours. Although the eye has just become evident in geostationary satellite images, it has been clearly seen in microwave data for much of the day. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and magnitude, and has become more symmetric during the past few hours. The outer rain bands of Lidia are beginning to spread across portions of west-central Mexico, and weather conditions are expected to steadily worsen into the evening. The center of Lidia is forecast to make landfall in west-central Mexico later this evening. As mentioned above, Lidia has rapidly strengthened over very warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the past day or so. Since the environmental conditions are not expected to change, Lidia could reach category 4 strength before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Lidia is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday over the rugged terrain of central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this evening. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of west-central Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 106.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102009 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P VALLARTA 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102008 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z update, and severe storms are not expected through tonight. ..Leitman.. 10/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today/tonight will be primarily influenced by the deepening of an upper wave (noted off the Pacific Northwest coast in morning satellite imagery) as it moves into the inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours. ...Pacific Northwest to the Southern High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, cooling temperatures aloft combined with strong dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will support widespread rainfall with embedded convection through tomorrow morning. Along the OR/WA coasts, latest satellite imagery depicts cooler/drier air aloft moving onshore, which should bolster low to mid-level buoyancy through the day. While some low-level shear is noted in coastal forecast soundings, hodograph structure through tonight is forecast to remain somewhat poor with 0-1 km SRH values sub-100 m2/s2. Combined with a transient convective signal in latest CAM guidance, the coastal tornado potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities. Steep mid-level lapse rates and residual mid-level moisture sampled by 12 UTC soundings from the northern Great Basin into the Southwest may support very isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon from southern WY to northern NM amid continued mid-level height falls. However, the broad-scale nature of the ascent combined with very low PWAT values suggests any convection should be fairly isolated and short lived. Additionally, a lack of a convective signal in any 12 UTC guidance limits confidence in thunder occurrence and coverage outside of southwest CO where a relatively stronger convective signal is noted in HREF thunder probabilities. Thunderstorm potential is higher across the southern High Plains where weak moisture return is coincident with steady surface pressure falls. ...Kansas/Missouri... A weak band of isentropic ascent in the 850-700 mb layer should continue to support occasional lighting flashes across central/eastern KS this afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet will bolster thunderstorm coverage and intensity across northern MO later tonight. Deep-layer shear values may approach 25-30 knots and could foster some storm organization. Small hail is possible with stronger cells across northwest MO, but storm interactions/clustering should limit the overall severe threat. ...South Texas/South Florida... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern FL Panhandle within a stalled, frontolytic cold front, but limited buoyancy and weak forcing for ascent should preclude a severe threat. Likewise, marginal buoyancy profiles across south TX should support lightning as a tropical low deepens over the western Gulf of Mexico later tonight, but the severe potential remains low. Read more

Wisconsin potato growers were harvesting a very good potato crop, in spite of the worst drought in the past 20 years. Yields were above average, and quality was excellent. WXPR-FM 91.7 Public Radio (Rhinelander, Wis.), Oct 10, 2023

Belton Lake was so low that grass was growing on the lakebed. The lake was 55.2% full on Oct. 9 and was more than 18.74 feet below its normal elevation of 594 feet above sea level. Killeen Daily Herald (Texas), Oct 9, 2023

Most of South Texas remained in moderate drought conditions after scattered rain showers delivered anywhere from 0.5-2 inches. Pastures were greening up, and temperatures remained in the mid- to upper-90s. Feed prices were high as ranchers and deer breeders supplemented livestock and wildlife. Many ranchers purchased hay they could find in preparation for the winter months. Quail populations looked healthy, and dove hunters were experiencing good hunts. Deer were plentiful, and many fawns were seen. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Hot, dry conditions persisted in Southwest Texas with isolated showers providing minimal relief. The reported average rainfall for the week was a half inch, with more chances of rain in the forecast. Many gardeners gave up on planting for the year. Cotton harvest was underway, and winter wheat emerged despite challenging growing conditions. Producers continued to sell livestock, and markets were holding steady. The supplementing livestock continued due to the lack of sufficient forage on rangelands. The ongoing dry conditions were taking a toll on vegetation, with trees and brush turning brown and grass essentially nonexistent. Diet supplementation was critical as sheep and goat breeding season began. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Scattered showers fell over Southeast Texas, ranging from 0.5-1.5 inches, but most of the district was still extremely dry. Rice harvest was completed, pastures were being mowed, and planting ryegrass for the winter started. Producers were tilling fields and planting winter forages for over-wintering livestock. Hay was fed to livestock and becoming harder to find in the area. Producers continued to cull cattle from their herds, but the number of cattle going to market dropped slightly. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Recent rains improved conditions in West Central Texas; however, much more was needed to grow grass before winter. Warm conditions allowed producers to prepare fields for oat and wheat planting, with a few beginning to sow. Trees continued to show severe drought stress. Some hay fields were being cut and baled. Aphid and armyworm pressure increased. Stock tank levels continued to decrease. Cattle looked good and supplemental feeding continued due to the lack of grass. The cattle market decreased slightly, but producers continued selling calves to reduce pressure on cows going into winter. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Daytime temperatures in Far West Texas were in the upper 80s to mid-90s, with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Rain varied in the region, anywhere from trace amounts to upwards of 1 inch. Soil moisture levels remained adequate to good. Cotton defoliation picked up as growers prepared for harvest. Most cotton fields failed due to drought and extreme heat and were shredded and plowed under. Lower grain sorghum yields were expected. Hay grazer and sunflowers headed out. Corn was harvested. Wheat planting slowed as most growers were waiting for some moisture before going much further. Pecan pods were cracking open, and harvesting should begin in three weeks. Livestock were in fair condition, and producers continued supplementing with hay and grain. More producers were taking livestock to the sale. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

North Texas was very dry as temperatures continued to stay high. Topsoil moisture levels ranged from short to adequate. No wheat or oats were planted. All crops except cotton were harvested. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Pasture conditions improved in some counties, and pastures were still poor to fair due to drought. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Hot and dry conditions continued across the Panhandle. Above-average temperatures and little to no rainfall caused many crops to struggle through the last part of the summer into the fall. The small amount of rain received the previous month did not last long. Most of the corn harvested was going to silage instead of grain. Producers began to defoliate cotton; irrigated acres were in good condition. Dryland cotton that survived was harvested. Pastures and rangelands were in fair condition but needed moisture. Rangelands continued to dry down and go dormant. Livestock were in good condition as ranchers fed hay and supplements daily. Hay supplies were replenished due to timely rains throughout the growing season. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023