Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

More West Texas cotton gins were closing or merging as drought has limited cotton production, and there was not enough cotton to support all of the gins. The price of many things has doubled, making it harder to turn a profit. KCBD (Lubbock, Texas), Jan 21, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more