Aggregator

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082355 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 ...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Lidia is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 the center of Lidia was located near 17.9, -112.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:55:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:22:57 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Sixteen-E, located located less than 200 miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Atlantic Ocean early this week as a second mid-level trough amplifies over the Interior West and ejects into the Plains states/Mississippi Valley during the mid to late part of the week. As this occurs, strong surface cyclone development is expected across the Plains states, accompanied by ample southerly moisture return. As the trough shunts eastward toward the Appalachian mountains, a surface cold front will sweep across the central U.S., reinforced by high pressure and cooler/dry air. In the immediate post cold front/dryline environment, dry and windy conditions may prevail across the southern High Plains into central Texas during the Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday period. However, given recent rainfall, questions remain regarding how receptive fuels will be for fire spread. As such, the status of the finest (i.e. 1-10 h fuels) will continue to be monitored for drying trends and subsequent need for fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Since the prior advisory, 1-minute visible images from the GOES-18 mesosector have been quite helpful in showing that the system we have been monitoring just south of Zihuatanejo has developed a well-defined circulation located a bit farther northwest of previous estimations. This circulation was farther supported by a 1702 UTC GMI pass which showed tightly curved bands wrapping most of the way around this apparent center on the 37 GHz channel. Thus, the system now can be considered a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is 30 kt for this advisory, which is in between the T1.5/25-kt estimates from TAFB and SAB versus 35-kt from the D-PRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Now that the center has become well-defined, it has formed farther northwest than earlier estimated. This should not be considered an acceleration in the short-term motion though, which still appears to be slowly off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. This slow motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward as the system is steered around mid-level ridging located east of it over the Caribbean Sea in addition to the outer circulation of Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Given the farther northwestward initial position, the timing for landfall has moved up a bit to between 24-36 h, by tomorrow evening. There continues to be some spread in this landfall timing, with the GFS remaining on the faster end versus the slower CMC and ECMWF solutions. The latest NHC track forecast more or less splits the difference, which is close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, though most of the guidance now agrees the system should be inland after 36 hours. Intensification is still forecast up until the system moves inland over Mexico. With landfall now between 24-36 h, there might not be quite as much time for intensification as previously expected. With that said, both the raw model output from the ECMWF and CMC suggest significant intensification over the next 24 hours before the depression makes landfall, and out of respect of these models, a peak intensity of 45 kt continues to be shown just before landfall. This is on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. The system should quickly weaken after moving inland, ultimately dissipating over the higher rugged terrain of south-central Mexico by 48 hours. However, the significant up-slope flow that will result is anticipated to continue producing very heavy rainfall into Tuesday over coastal and inland Mexico as the cyclone and its remnants move farther inland. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. 2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of western Oaxaca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 1 20(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 32(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 101.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Lidia has become a little better organized this afternoon. Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been increasing and gradually becoming more symmetric. However, microwave data show that the low- and mid-level centers are still not well aligned, and there is a notable southwest tilt with height. The initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the low end of the satellite estimates, but if the trends continue, Lidia could become a hurricane tonight. The storm has now turned northward at 6 kt. A faster motion to the northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system. There has not been any significant change with the new models runs, with the GFS remaining the fastest solution and the ECMWF the slowest. The NHC track forecast has again been nudged northward this cycle toward the latest consensus aids. Based on the latest guidance, Lidia will likely make landfall in west-central Mexico late Tuesday. Lidia could strengthen a little tonight or early Monday, but more notable intensification seems likely late Monday and Tuesday in part due to a favorable trough interaction while Lidia moves over SSTs near 30 C. The models have trended higher this cycle and the NHC intensity forecast has followed suit, and is in line with the HCCA and IVCN models. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and Lidia will likely dissipate over central Mexico in a few days. Based on the forecast and the track uncertainty, the government of Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of Jalisco in southwest Mexico. 3. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 17.6N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 18.3N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.9N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 19.7N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 24.5N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 57(63) 20(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 23(46) X(46) X(46) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 19(36) X(36) X(36) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 38(71) X(71) X(71) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) X(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 17(32) X(32) X(32) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 4 21(25) 62(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 8(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 34 37 43(80) 15(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 33(34) 30(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.3N 112.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.7N 109.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 102.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor expansions have been made to the general thunderstorm areas across the Southwest based on visible satellite trends, but the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cool, dry continental air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS, and will limit the potential for thunderstorms with the exception of a few regions. Over the lower Great Lakes, warm lake water temperatures coupled with cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low will support sufficient buoyancy for a few lightning strikes. Steep lapse rates over the Southwest combined with a modest influx of low to mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered terrain-driven thunderstorms. Given inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in the lowest 2-3 km, a few strong wind gusts are possible. Across the southern FL Panhandle, weak forcing for ascent along a southward-migrating cold front within a weakly capped environment should support isolated thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm organization, but confidence in storm coverage and residence time over land is fairly low and precludes introducing any severe probabilities. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 7 23:42:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 7 23:42:02 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are
beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance
is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward through tonight, and
then turn northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico
late Sunday and Monday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico this
evening or overnight, and interests in this area should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
is likely to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2023 21:23:12 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Recent partial ASCAT passes and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the center of Lidia has been located well underneath the large, cold convective canopy for the past several hours. This suggests that the northeasterly to easterly shear may have decreased slightly compared to yesterday. However, recent SSMIS and GMI passes indicate that the structure has not improved much. The recent ASCAT passes also suggest that the winds have not increased yet. Despite subjective Dvorak estimates ranging from 65 to 77 kt and objective estimates ranging from 51 to 63 kt, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory based on the ASCAT data. There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning. The microwave and ASCAT data indicate that Lidia has not made any significant northward progress yet. The motion is estimated at 280/3 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected to occur over the next 24 h, after which time, the cyclone is expected to begin interacting with an approaching trough from the north. This interaction will result in an acceleration early next week toward the northeast and in the general direction of west-central Mexico. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 60 h, but shows a faster northeastward motion around the time of landfall and after landfall, and is in best agreement with the TVCE consensus aid. It should be noted that there remains significant along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is some uncertainty in the timing of landfall. Moderate easterly shear is likely to inhibit significant intensification through early Sunday. However, the shear is expected to briefly relax late Sunday through Monday night, as the cyclone moves northward over warm sea-surface temperatures. Lidia is therefore forecast to intensify to hurricane strength by Monday. It should be noted that Lidia could intensify a bit more quickly than forecast, considering the center is now well underneath the cold convective canopy. As the storm approaches landfall in Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to increase, but this shear may not have time to affect the cyclone much before it makes landfall. Furthermore, it should be noted that the deterministic GFS global model depicts very low central pressures, suggesting Lidia could maintain hurricane intensity through landfall. Other reliable statistical models and consensus aids are not as aggressive. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast, except it brings Lidia to hurricane strength a bit sooner. Confidence in the intensity forecast is below average. Interests in west-central Mexico should remain attentive to forecast updates in the coming days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 112.5W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg