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MD 0101 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030212Z - 030415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered storms may continue to pose a damaging wind and marginal hail threat as they move across remaining parts of WW 13. The threat area may include a few adjacent counties east of the existing watch. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms ahead of the primary cold front have consolidated into two main clusters, both showing signs of either damaging wind gusts or hail near 1.00". Surface analysis shows a diffuse theta-e gradient north of CRP and extending northwestward toward the Frio/La Salle County cluster, while farther north across the San Antonio area, surface conditions are cooler but still unstable. Given the ongoing substantial storm clusters, damaging gusts will be possible as the air mass remains sufficiently unstable to sustain the ongoing convection, especially near the theta-e gradient. Expected coverage of severe outside the watch is not forecast to necessitate a new watch, though a few severe reports will be possible. ..Jewell.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27799985 28319954 28729955 29559916 29919907 30119918 30319890 30379835 30479764 30189711 28849702 28099722 27859757 27599950 27679969 27799985 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DRT TO 50 NE DRT TO 40 NE JCT TO 15 ENE BWD TO 25 WSW MWL TO 10 SSE SPS TO 25 WSW FSI. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-077-091-093-099-123-127-137-143- 163-171-177-187-193-209-237-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-319-323- 325-333-363-385-411-453-463-491-493-507-030440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL CLAY COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS ERATH FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE HAMILTON HAYS JACK KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0102 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030220Z - 030345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13, over central into northern TX. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with a squall-line moving across the region. DISCUSSION...A squall line has become established from Wichita to Kimple Counties in TX and is progressing eastward amid a marginally sheared and buoyant airmass (i.e. 30+ kts of effective bulk shear and 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Surface temperatures have cooled into the lower 60s F. However, the 00Z FWS observed sounding suggests convective inhibition is negligible (despite a thin CAPE profile), with a hodograph characterized by enlarged low-level curvature and some elongation. As such, isolated damaging gusts may still accompany the squall line for at least a few more hours. A brief QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out with any embedded mesovortices that can become established within the squall line. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30799921 31049919 31669894 32759860 33619835 33889790 33219746 32139771 31199815 30949841 30729909 30799921 Read more

MD 0100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030033Z - 030200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 over northern to central Texas. Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger QLCS circulations. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are merging into a singular squall line across portions of northern into central TX as large-scale ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains. MRMS mosaic radar imagery had displayed possible severe hail with the earlier discrete storm modes, with a tornado also reported in southwestern Haskell County, TX in the past hour. While a couple instances of severe hail could still occur with the stronger storm cores, damaging gusts may become a relatively greater threat this evening given the transition to more linear storm modes. KDYX radar data has also shown brief instances of strong low-level rotation embedded within the maturing QLCS. Deep-layer is modest (i.e. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis). However the mesoanalysis also shows 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, and the FWS VAD shows over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with enlarged hodograph curvature. Since the deep-layer shear vectors are also oriented roughly normal to the convective line, a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31809993 31910013 32370012 32979991 33679951 33939870 33799836 33339822 32629819 31949842 31719919 31809993 Read more

MD 0099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...extreme eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022347Z - 030145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind or hail are possible with the stronger thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity ahead of a surface cold front as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads western TX (per 23Z mesoanalysis). These storms are preceded by 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, which should support continued development and intensification given low to mid 60s F surface temperatures and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis also show weak deep-layer shear, characterized by generally short hodographs. While some severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out, the severe threat is expected to remain generally isolated given the weaker shear. Storms may gradually diminish in intensity later this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34080034 34960057 35410032 35669990 35679900 35509841 34999816 34759822 34529874 34040000 34080034 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE 6R6 TO 60 NNW DRT TO 50 W JCT TO 35 ESE SJT TO 15 SE ABI TO 55 NNE ABI TO 25 SSW LTS. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-013-019-023-029-031-049-053-059-083-091-093-095-127-133- 137-163-171-187-209-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-307-319-323-325- 327-333-385-411-413-417-429-435-447-463-465-487-493-503-507- 030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER ATASCOSA BANDERA BAYLOR BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON THROCKMORTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WILBARGER WILSON YOUNG ZAVALA Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE 6R6 TO 60 NNW DRT TO 50 W JCT TO 35 ESE SJT TO 15 SE ABI TO 55 NNE ABI TO 25 SSW LTS. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-013-019-023-029-031-049-053-059-083-091-093-095-127-133- 137-163-171-187-209-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-307-319-323-325- 327-333-385-411-413-417-429-435-447-463-465-487-493-503-507- 030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER ATASCOSA BANDERA BAYLOR BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON THROCKMORTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WILBARGER WILSON YOUNG ZAVALA Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2024 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW 6R6 TO 45 ENE 6R6 TO 25 SSW SJT TO 20 NNE SJT TO 25 SW ABI TO 45 N ABI TO 60 SSE CDS TO 20 ESE CDS. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-013-019-023-029-031-049-053-059-083-091-093-095-105-127- 133-137-155-163-171-187-197-207-209-253-255-259-265-267-271-275- 281-299-307-319-323-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-417-429-435-441- 447-451-463-465-487-493-503-507-030140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER ATASCOSA BANDERA BAYLOR BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS FOARD FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HARDEMAN HASKELL HAYS JONES KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY KNOX LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON Read more