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A Skagit County hay grower without irrigation found that his production was down 30%. He had to sell some cattle early. A nonprofit farm animal rescue organization that usually buys hay from the grower was struggling to find enough hay. A potato grower had to irrigate his potato field to help them emerge for the first time. Water was purchased from the Skagit Public Utility District. One farmer was not able to irrigate his crops for three weeks after the level of the Skagit River dropped too low. Early snowmelt, a lack of spring rain and low stream flows led the state Department of Ecology to declare a drought emergency in 12 counties in July, including parts of Skagit County. GoSkagit (Mount Vernon, Wash.), Oct 7, 2023

Mississippi cattlemen were spending more money to get their cattle ready to market. The ongoing drought has slashed hay production and left the cattle eating hay that was intended to be fed during the winter. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 11, 2023

Crop yields have been higher than expected, but stalk stability has been an issue with strong winds knocking the corn stalks down. Farmers may have to compensate by harvesting more slowly, adjusting equipment and harvesting from a different direction to accommodate leaning stalks. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Oct 10, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 12 01:53:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2239 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota and west central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120150Z - 120415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing low-level warm advection may support additional thunderstorms capable of isolated hail this evening. Confidence in storm coverage and severity is low and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 0140 UTC, regional IR satellite imagery showed cooling cloud tops along a band of convection across portions of the central Plains. Located along and north of a warm front emanating from a deepening lee low over eastern CO, convection is expected to continue to slowly deepen and increase in coverage near the frontal corridor through this evening and into the overnight hours. Area VADs and surface obs show low-level mass response ahead of the deepening low, along with a moderately strong low-level jet. Favored by the uptick in low and mid-level warm advection, forcing for ascent should continue to build this evening supporting additional storm development. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along the warm front should support a few stronger updrafts. Bolstered by a band of westerly mid-level flow associated with the deepening low, 30-40 kt effective shear may also support some organization of these updrafts into sustained multicells or transient supercell structures. Generally north of the surface warm front and with nocturnal cooling ongoing at the surface, storms should remain elevated with the main risk being isolated hail with the more sustained/robust updrafts. Hi-res guidance varies on the degree of storm coverage/intensity through this evening, casting uncertainty on how widespread any severe risk will be. However, current radar and observational trends do suggest a few stronger storms with hail potential may evolve over north-central NE and spread into portions of southern SD and western IA tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41389491 41249657 41279934 41540048 41580061 42210136 43050101 43280048 43629845 43569762 43369652 43139586 42669435 42249336 41639310 41429388 41389491 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 12 00:52:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in the early to middle
parts of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible as the system moves generally north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

The Shenandoah city council voted to enact stage three water rationing as the town’s wells were low. Such rationing has not been needed in 23 years. Water levels were down 35%, based on a 5-year average. “In a normal year, we could run three or four wells and get the amount of water we’re getting currently,” according to the Shenandoah water superintendent. “But, since water levels are low due to the river being low — and no rain — we have to run all of the wells together at a lower setting.” KJAN AM-1220 & FM-101.1 (Atlantic, Iowa), Oct 11, 2023

Osceola was in a water emergency because the city’s only water source, West Lake, was five feet below normal. The city was exceeding safe withdrawal limits from the lake. It was prohibited to use water outdoors, except for fire and health hazard prevention. All commercial and industrial uses of water not essential in providing products or services was also prohibited. Water use not necessary for the preservation of life, or the general welfare of the community was also prohibited. Osceola officials also requested that the Southern Iowa Rural Water Association use another water source, if possible. KCCI TV 8 (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 6, 2023

Some Spartanburg County customers of the Startex-Jackson-Wellford-Duncan Water District were surprised to find that their water was brown, due to the mineral content. Water was being drawn from deeper in Lyman Lake where the water has more minerals like iron and manganese. The water district switched to a secondary water source which should help with the discoloration. WSPA (Spartanburg, S.C.), Oct 3, 2023

Crops were about six weeks behind for a Picayune farm that grows pumpkins and corn for a maze. They aimed to plant the third week of July, but were not able to plant until Aug. 11. The lack of rain made the seeds slow to germinate and has forced the farm to push back its opening date several times. WLOX TV 13 (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 29, 2023

The Little Rock Fire Department has had 83 calls for grass and wood fires in the month of September, which is unusual. KARK (Little Rock, Ark.), Oct 2, 2023

Permits for outdoor burning in Alabama were no longer being issued as of Oct. 6. Anyone burning a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to prosecution for committing a Class B misdemeanor. Much of Alabama had seen an increase in wildfire activity. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Oct 4, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Scattered storms are expected to develop later tonight over parts of the middle and lower Missouri Valley. Non-severe, diurnally driven storms over western TX are expected to wane this evening as the boundary layer cools. To the northeast, a band of elevated convection is forecast after 06Z from southeast NE into MO, in association with increasing theta-e advection with southwest 850 mb flow to 40 kt. Forecast soundings show cool midlevel temperatures, but overall marginal instability to support any hail over 1.00" diameter. While initial development could exhibit robust updrafts, effective shear does not appear to support anything long-lived enough to produce severe weather. ..Jewell.. 10/11/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 11 00:59:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 11 00:59:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 23:56:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 20:11:27 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 105.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Manzanillo to El Roblito A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * El Roblito to Mazatlan * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Lidia has made landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated to be near 140 mph (220 km/h). At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located on the coast near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move inland over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lidia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown